Monday, May 01, 2006

BULLETIN No.102

Los Angeles Times War clouds Russia's dangerous double game with Israel and Iran could easily spark a Middle East conflict, with dire consequences for the U.S.
Jerusalem Post 'It'll get worse before it gets better' Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy on the future of global terrorism.
Washington Times Terrorist axis targets Jordan In the wake of Jordanian security forces' discovery of a plot by Hamas to smuggle weapons into the country from Syria, Amman has received yet another grim reminder that it is a terrorist target
BBC 'Made in Mideast' Jordan's trade deal aims to boost Israeli-Arab ties Daily Star Yes to Arab democracy, but how do you defend it? By Rayyan al-Shawaf
Apr 28 IA# 271 - "Manifesto of Liberties"- A Muslim Association for Freedom in the Arab World
NYT Magazine Ministering to the Upwardly Mobile Muslim Amr Khaled's many followers in the Middle East and Europe are looking for an alternative to secular liberalism on one side and radical Islamism on the other. Is a former accountant with no formal religious training the right man to help them find it? By SAMANTHA M. SHAPIRO
From The Jerusalem Post, at the Leviathan's mercy: A critique of the work of Robert Kaplan.
Jonah Goldberg: Radical Islam is globalization for losers

UPI Interview: U.S: Relations with Syria worse U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs David Welsh said Washington's relations with Syria are not only bad but getting worse.
Syria Comment Syria Eagerly Seeking to Improve Relations with Iraqi Leaders
A Syrian monastery lies at the nexus of Islam, Christianity
It offers a fresh approach to bridge-building with the Islamic world.
UPI Analysis: U.N. resolution seeks to assure Lebanon's independence

Olmert Agrees to Coalition Deal Israeli leader may forge an alliance with the religious Shas party to establish a parliamentary majority
Ultra-Orthodox Party Joins Israeli Coalition, Giving Olmert Majority Needed to Take Power
Hamas warns of new intifada if Palestinian rule fails
Al-Qaida? If Hamas is pushed into a corner
CFR Israel in NATO? Some Say It Should Happen
"Arab League Boycott of Israel" (pdf), April 19, 2006.
NSA - Israel Crossesthe Threshold Senior Nixon Administration Officials Considered Confronting Israel over Nuclear Weapons in 1969

A New Strategy on Iran By Dennis Ross
Weekly Standard "Iran Is Not Iraq" Much of the U.S. government no longer believes in, and is no longer acting to enforce, the Bush Doctrine.by William Kristol
NPR Is Iran's Nuclear Status Inevitable?
Iran Strategy: Cold War Echo The nuclear dispute between the U.S. and Iran resembles the brinkmanship of the cold war, but with some decidedly new twists.
"The Russian Option Is the Only One" The United Nations Security Council ultimatum demanding that Iran terminate its efforts to enrich uranium expires on Friday. In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, Ulrich Ladurner, author of the book "The Iranian Bomb," discusses Tehran's path toward becoming a nuclear power and possible scenarios and possibilities for solving the crisis.
The IAEA report on Iran and an analysis
Iranian's Plans for Economy Spur Widespread Concern
UPI Outside VIew: US-Iran crisis fall-out By ALEXEI MAKARKIN Escalation of the U.S. conflict with Iran directly affects the interests of its neighbors.
Daily Star Bombing Iran may buy time until democrats win By Joshua Muravchik
New York Times U.N. Agency Says Iran Falls Short on Nuclear Data Iran has drastically curtailed cooperation with inspectors as it has sped forward with its nuclear enrichment, the I.A.E.A. said.
The Saturday Profile: Hostage-Taker, Reformer, Pessimist: An Iranian Life
European Opinion and Iran's 'New' Missile Stratfor
Der Spiegel IAEA Report May Open Path to Sanctions Iran is in defiance of the UN Security Council, a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Friday. Sanctions may be next. But Iran says "no one" can make the country give up its nuclear activity.
Daily TelegraphPressuring TeheranDespite the high oil price, Iran's economy is its Achilles' heel. According to World Bank figures, per capita income has more than halved since the 1979 revolution. Unemployment, especially among the young, and inflation are high, and the government remains wedded to an outdated model of import substitution.
Newsweek Time Runs Out for Iran at the U.N. Now What? Tehran has defied its nuclear deadline, but U.N. action appears to be no closer
UPI Analysis: U.N. readies Iran nuke resolution
Sunday Times Iran's psychopath in chief, by Israel
Guardian Leader The IAEA and Iran There can be a nuclear bargain Mohamed ElBaradei had no choice but to find Iran in breach of its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
BBC West urges tougher line on Iran Western powers say they will push for a legally binding UN resolution to force Iran to cease uranium enrichment.
New Activities at the Esfahan and Natanz Nuclear Sites in Iran Institute for Science and International Security
Daily Telegraph Teheran attacks Iraqis An anti-Iranian Kurdish group based in Iraq has been attacked by Iranian troops, raising fears that instability there could spill over into the rest of the region.
Iranian Kurds and Kurds By Sirvan Kaveh Persian identity based upon Persian culture, values and the Persian language. The “Iranian” has therefore left no room for the Kurd.

Washington Post Merits of Partitioning Iraq or Allowing Civil War Weighed By Thomas E. Ricks
Newsweek Exclusive: Interview with Moqtada al-Sadr
New York Times Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq By JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR. and LESLIE H. GELB America should wind down its military presence in Iraq responsibly while preventing chaos and preserving its key security goals.
Helena Cobban Sistani returns to Iraqi politics
Editorial Challenge for a New Iraqi Leader There are some reasons to hope Iraq's new prime minister-designate, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, can be a more effective leader than Ibrahim al-Jaafari
Dedication and Danger in Iraq By Joseph E. Robert Jr., Across Iraq, military personnel are managing local reconstruction and development projects for which they lack the proper training or tools
Jawad: Iraq's New LeaderAsharq Alawsat
Washington Post Efforts to Train Iraqi Forces Pose Perils U.S. soldiers harbor deep distrust of volunteer troops in northern town of Hawijah amid signs they may be working in cahoots with insurgents
Iraq 'could become haven for terror' US state department acknowledges risk of Iraq becoming safe haven for terrorists.

WSJ Father of the Bush Doctrine George Shultz on pre-emption and the Revolt of the Generals. By DANIEL HENNINGER
TPMCafe - America's Security Trap, Part II By G. John Ikenberry
"Intelligence for a New Era in American Foreign Policy" (1.3 MB pdf) is the report of a conference convened by the Center for the Study of Intelligence, published in January 2004.
Der Spiegel How We Can Work Together By John McCain The United States and Europe may have their differences but we still have common political interests. Working together, we can help keep Iran from building a nuclear bomb, we can foster true democracy in Russia, Belarus and China and we can stop mass killings in Africa. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Congressional Research Service "The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11" (pdf), April 24, 2006.
Once again, for Muslims, it's 'us versus us' MONA ELTAHAWY If anyone is on a crusade against Muslims it is Al Qaeda itself
State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2005. Table of Contents Full report pdf file. -- Special Briefing releasing the reports.
Washington Post League of Dictators? Why China and Russia Will Continue to Support Autocracies By Robert Kagan
Newsweek Egypt: Mubarak's Real Targets
Newsweek Turkey: Going After the Kurds Turkey embraces 'hot pursuit' in northern Iraq.
DEBKAfile - Gul: Ankara will not be drawn into any US or Israel military operations against Iran

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