Wednesday, April 12, 2006

BULLETIN No.92

PINR "The Israeli Elections: A Recipe for Further Crisis" Full text of report
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN The Hamas Dilemma Hamas doesn't deserve to be treated like a democratic government, but it has something Israelis want: a cease-fire.
Der Spiegel SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH ISRAEL'S FOREIGN MINISTER "We Must Remain Resolute with Hamas"
Weekly Standard The Latest Zionist Conspiracy Hamas explains why American Christians support Israel.by Mark D. Tooley
Palestinians starting to feel the aid pinch Funding cuts to the Hamas government are having an impact on everyday life.
Freed - with a huge debt and empty purse Fatah left Palestine with a crippling $1.2 billion of debt - and it is up to Hamas to fix it, says the new Finance minister

ChamPress
Arab reform, a boxer in between rounds - Rami G. Khouri
Professor says U.S. misunderstands Syria's complexity

Washington Institute How Much Do the EU and Russia Care about Iran? Walter Posch, Vladimir Esveev, and Patrick Clawson
Guardian If ever there was a nation not to drive to extremes, it is Iran Simon Jenkins: The US and Britain are goading Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, while Blair's jihadist rhetoric is inciting a fourth crusade.
Washington Post An Iranian Missile Crisis? By David Ignatius,
Bush's advisers -- and most of all, the president himself -- must keep searching for ways to escape the inexorable logic that is propelling the United States and Iran toward war.
How to Get Out of the Iran Trap
Anatol Lieven
CFR IRAN CLAIMS TO ENRICH URANIUM
Stratfor Iran: Crossing the Red Line? Iranian officials are trumpeting a major advance in their country's nuclear program. Here is what it means -- and does not mean.
Debka US-Iranian Iraq Dialogue Fails Before Starting
Jerusalem Post Analysis: Iran's misguided ploy?
Christian Science Monitor Calculus of a military strike against Iran
Asia Times Iran flirts with confrontation The best-case scenario for Tehran is that the US military is forced to withdraw from Iraq, leaving Iran with a dominant sphere of influence over a Shi'ite-dominated Iraq. The worst-case scenario is that the US or Israel launches a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iranian leaders will resort to complex brinkmanship and tactical retreats to get the outcome they want.
New York Times Iran Reports Big Advance in Enrichment of Uranium
An Iranian Missile Crisis? By David Ignatius, Bush's advisers -- and most of all, the president himself -- must keep searching for ways to escape the inexorable logic that is propelling the United States and Iran toward war.
The Human Costs ofBombing Iran by Matthew Rothschild
US Iran Strike Planning 'Similar to Iraq'
BBC US condemns Iran nuclear advance The United States says Iran is "moving in the wrong direction" by announcing it has enriched uranium.
Iran raises stakes in nuclear row
Iran 'years from nuclear bomb'
Q&A: Iran nuclear stand-off
Mehran Riazaty: Iran Analyst Iran: Unclear Activities, Oil Price, and Iraq
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Iran on fast track to Bomb' Israeli security officials worry Iranian president's statements country succeeded in enriching uranium pose real threat, warn international community not moving fast enough with sanctions against Muslim republic
WSJ Iranian Bomb Scare It's irresponsible not to have military plans.
Editorial Iran: A credible threat? Bush's reasonable (public) position on Iran suffers from his own credibility gap.

Los Angeles Times U.S. leaders to Iraq: Unite or fail By Zalmay Khalilzad and George W. Casey Jr
UPI Analysis: Who are the players in Iraq?
Debka US-Iranian Iraq Dialogue Fails Before Starting
New Republic What went wrong in Iraq? Cobra II is the best attempt yet to answer the question. by David Rieff
Group seeks Iraq solution A high-level bipartisan group, asked by policy-makers to come up with new solutions to the challenges in Iraq, said yesterday that it was proceeding with "a sense of urgency."
Los Angeles Times U.S. leaders to Iraq: Unite or fail By Zalmay Khalilzad and George W. Casey Jr.
The U.S. ambassador and top general in Iraq say the country must come together to face a harsh sectarian test.
Iraqi Institutions Drifting in a Postelection Limbo
Slate Cousins in Arms: What Lebanon's civil war might tell us about Iraq. Michael Young

UPI Outside View: Dark demographics Some analysts have been focusing on the economic and demographic pressures that drive the Middle East towards terrorism and extremism.
Things Aren't What They Used To Be Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East Studies A 2-page analysis of the reasons for the impasse at the Khartoum Arab Summit
'Islamic terrorism' too emotiveEuropean governments should shun the phrase "Islamic terrorism" in favour of "terrorists who abusively invoke Islam," guidelines from EU officials have said.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

BULLETIN No.91

Daily Star It's Israel's system that makes peace so difficult By Yossi Alpher
Hamas: Israeli move 'a declaration of war'...
Debka Hamas Is Not Without Alternative Resources Print
EU suspends aid to Palestinian Authority The EU increases pressure on the Palestinian Authority to recognise Israel and renounce terrorist violence.
The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy by William Pfaff

Ha’aretz – In Lebanon, Syrians still behind the wheel
ChamPress
Two Gulf Companies to invest in Syria
How US Foreign Policies Fuel Anti-American Feelings Abroad - Linda Heard
'Who else but Israel?
Syria Must Stop Arrests of Activists

Slate Are We Really Going To Nuke Iran?: Decoding our options. Fred Kaplan
NYT Attack Iran? Yes He Would by Paul Krugman
Christian Science Monitor Striking Iran is an option, not inevitable A US or Israeli attack would be hard to pull off and might trigger Mideast riots. By Seth G. Jones
William Arkin Goldilocks and Iran
Daily Telegraph The West can't let Iran have the bomb Con Coughlin.
CFR IRAN’S UNCLEAR NUCLEAR STATUS
New York Times Editorial Military Fantasies on Iran
If the Bush administration's goal is to change minds in Iran and energize diplomacy, it is not going about it in a very smart way.
Is War With Iran Inevitable? - Patrick Buchanan
Facing Down Iran - Mark Steyn, City Journal
Does Iran Want War? - Austin Bay, Austin Bay Blog
Misunderstanding Iran By Amir Taheri
BBC Nuclear fears US 'bunker-buster' attack on Iran remains improbable
Bush dismisses 'Iran attack plan' "wild speculation".
RFE/RL Is The U.S. Planning To Attack Iran?

A Shiite Split Will Help Iraq's New Democracy By Amir Taheri Asharq Al Awsat - Taheri notes that the Shiite community in Iraq is about to split, with some withdrawing support for Jaafari as Prime Minister. The split will reduce sectarianism in Iraqi politics and allow Shi'a to form alliances with other groups. It will also allow for the resolution of the major issues facing Iraq, which are not necessarily sectarian causes. Link to full text in primary source.
Guardian Iraqi PM on brink of climbdown
BBC 'We're losing Iraq' Baghdad blogger says Iraqi identity is being eroded by divisions
New Yorker George Packer on the lesson of Tal Afar: Is it too late for the Administration to correct its course in Iraq?
Der Spiegel Running out of Patience in Iraq
OpenDemocracy Is this civil war? Three years after the fall of Saddam, Iraq is a place of sectarian and insurgent violence, insecurity and fear. But does this amount to civil war, asks Anwar Rizvi
Editorial Bush and Iraq leaksThe revelation that George W. Bush approved the leak of classified information about Iraq's chimerical nuclear programme is unlikely to snowball into another...

WSJ U.S. Sees Europe as New Front Against Islamists The Bush administration has quietly opened what senior officials consider a third front in a global campaign against Islamist extremism, this one aimed at the rising threat from Europe.
Hudson Review Bruce Bawer: Crisis in Europe Islam has given dignity and meaning to the drab and impoverished lives of many men and women. But what is it doing for Muslims in Europe? Or for Europe itself?

Monday, April 10, 2006

BULLETIN No.90

IHT Avoiding failure with Hamas ROBERT MALLEY The West needs to devise a real policy to deal with the real problem of Hamas.
A CONVERSATION WITH EHUD OLMERT Interim Israeli Prime Minister
Hamas May Soften Stance on Israel Abbas said in an interview that the radical Islamic group Hamas is likely to accept the Jewish state's right to exist.
Daily Telegraph Hint from Hamas that it may recognise Israel The first indications that Hamas might recognise the right of Israel to exist emerged following intense diplomatic and economic pressure from the international community.
Hamas calls to end suicide bombings Hamas is to abandon its use of suicide bombers, who have killed almost 300 Israelis, in any future confrontations with Israel, its activists have told The Observer.
BBC EU suspends aid to Palestinians The European Commission temporarily halts its aid payments to the Hamas-led Palestinian government.
Palestinian heads attack aid cut Palestinian leaders strongly criticise US and EU plans to cut off financial aid to the Hamas-led government
Israel to Boycott Diplomats Who Meet Hamas Officials
Palestinian Authority cohabitation continues
Yedioth Ahronoth Hamas against the world/ Plocker
Hamas 'waking up' to reality: Abbas
New York Review of Books - Hamas: The Last Chance for Peace? By Henry Siegman
Wexler Comes to Ankara with HAMAS Criticism
Guardian Abbas: our sons will fight Israelis for a just deal
Israel, Algeria, Morocco to join NATO counter-terrorism patrols
Does Israel Conduct Covert Action in America? by Michael Scheuer
Survey: 44% Jewish Israelis are secular, 8% ultra-Orthodox
Time Olmert: Israel Should Not Be on the Forefront of a War Against Iran In an exclusive interview with TIME, the Israeli prime minister warns about the threat from Iran, praises President Bush and vows to press ahead with West Bank withdrawals

Former Syrian leader charged with conspiracy Syrian court charges former vice-president with inciting a foreign attack on the country and plotting to seize power.
Crimes of the Turkish Government Kurdish American Committee for Democracy in Syria
Syria Comment
"Illegal but Working: Civil society in Syria," by Glada Lahn
ChamPress
State of denial: till when? - Bouthaina Shaaban
Syria approves foreign banks
Cargill enters Syria before Bush
Brammertz expected to meet Assad
Syrian military court charges former VP with conspiracy

New Yorker - THE IRAN PLANS by SEYMOUR M. HERSH Would President Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the bomb?
CSIS - Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails -Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan
TIME Iran's Nukes: Are the US and Europe Out of Sync? Analysis: To resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran, Europe wants to offer incentives as well as sanctions. But that will require the U.S. to give up, for now, its pursuit of regime change By Tony Karon
Iran & the Bomb By Christopher de Bellaigue
New York Post Does Iran Want War? - Ralph Peters
Knight-Ridder - Experts: Iran's weapons pose little threat but are a political boon
Asia Times Mission impossible? True US-Iran dialogue Trying to hold a constructive dialogue with Iran over Iraq while at the same time quashing its nuclear weapons ambitions and, by the way, overturning the regime may be a tricky juggling act. But the US and Iran can still debate if they engage in true dialogue and not just talk past each other as they have done in the past. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Guardian US plans Iran strikes - report Bush accused of 'messianic' mission after a report in the New Yorker magazine claims that US is intent on regime change in Tehran.
BBC Rare dialogue What Iran hopes to gain from talks with US officials on Iraq
Iran In Our Future - William F. Buckley
ArmsControlWonk Iran-US Talks
Cooling the Iran Crisis by Dilip Hiro
Iran Has No Inter-Continental Missiles: Russia
Baghdad and the Democracy of the US and Iran Abdel Wahab Badrakhan
IRAQ: FIRST MEETING OF IRAN AND US OFFICIALS IN BAGHDAD

Helena Cobban Bush's project in Iraq: Is the end nigh?
Washington Post Shiite Militias Now Seen As Critical Challenge Shiite militias pose the greatest threat to security in many parts of Iraq, having killed more people in recent months than the Sunni Arab-led insurgency, officials say.
Independent Iraq: Don't look away Three years after the toppling of Saddam, Iraq is a bloody mess, with a further 70 people killed yesterday in an attack on a Baghdad mosque.
UPI Analysis: The many faces of Iraq's war There is no longer one war raging in Iraq. There are now at least three different, though overlapping ones, and very soon their number could rise to four
UPI Analysis: Fragmented Iraq: Saudi challenge
CFR SHIFTING TACTICS IN IRAQ
Asia Times Cutting and running in Iraq Iraq has gone from a country with a shaky US-backedregime fighting a resistance movement to one in which sectarian killings and ethnic cleansing predominate. Rational observers can only conclude the US Army has no place in the midst of a civil war. The options seem to be defeat or an increased presence, but for the administration withdrawal is not an option. -Robert Dreyfuss
Christian Science Monitor Attacks test Iraq's Shiites Suicide attacks on civilians complicate Sunni-Shiite political reconciliation.
Hirsh: The GOP’s Sectarian War Over Iraq
Iraq's new model army The sooner Iraqi forces can cope on their own, the sooner foreign troops can pull out, and the sooner the insurgents will be deprived of their principal motivation. So far, though, precious few have been equal to the task.

Friday, April 07, 2006

BULLETIN No.89

Israel’s Unlikely Transformer David Makovsky writes in the Washington Post that Ehud Olmert has travelled a long ideological road from his days as a young confidant of Israel’s conservative Likud leaders in the 1980s.
Der Spiegel DEALING WITH THE PALESTINIANS Europe Mulls Path Forward with Hamas Berlin has spent millions supporting development in the Palestinian Authority. But in the wake of the election victory of terrorist organization Hamas, that aid -- like all European Union funds -- has been frozen. Berlin and the EU must now determine how best to deal with Hamas, which is classified here as a terrorist organization. By Ralf Beste, Jan Fleischhauer and Christoph Schult
Gulf News Will Kadima impose a victor's peace?
Ehud Olmert's plan to expand Jewish housing estates now threatens to obliterate the dream of a continuous Arab state.
Haaretz Coalition talks to begin Sunday; Labor, Shas make demands Olmert tapped to form coalition; Labor: Open Gaza crossings; Shas: Keep Reichman away from education.
Jerusalem Post 'Let's ignore Hamas' By CAROLINE GLICK - Last Thursday the first jihadist government since the Taliban ascended to power.
Haaretz Hamas government offers Israel 'quiet for quiet' Israeli officials call Hamas cease-fire proposal a 'trick'; Zahar says ready to discuss two-state solution.
Yedioth Ahronoth Zahar: Hamas willing to discuss 2-state solution Hamas is prepared to discuss the concept of a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict that would recognize Israel's right to exist, the Palestinian foreign minister said in comments published on Friday.
Jerusalem Post Haniyeh okays contacts with Israelis
Al Ahram Party lines More unilateral policies are in the offing by Israel, writes Erica Silverman
Haaretz Israel considers holding limited ties with Hamas government
Jerusalem Post Exclusive: EU ready for ties with Hamas-led PAEuropean leaders likely to approve basic contact with Hamas affiliates in the PA, but rule out political or diplomatic dialogue.
Haaretz A critical year Past experience has shown that what the government does in its first year is what counts. The year ahead is critical. Got that, Peretz?
Haaretz Olmert's first lie By Gideon Samet - The particpation of Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas in the coalition, without an explicit commitment to honor the convergence plan, will lead to one of two outcomes - withdrawal from the convergence, or giving up on Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas as coalition partners after they get all the spoils.
Alone and Broke, Hamas Struggles to Rule Ismail Haniya faces not only diplomatic isolation and a bankrupt treasury but an intense rivalry with Fatah.
The Times Hamas hints it may be ready to talk about a two-state solution The Islamic militant group has never accepted Israel’s right to exist but now that it is in government it faces huge pressure from the West to relent Transcript in full here
NYT Many Problems Face Chief of Palestinians' Hamas By JOHN KIFNER and GREG MYRE
Ismail Haniya faces not only diplomatic isolation and a bankrupt treasury but an intense rivalry with Fatah.
Hamas Offers Israel Cease-Fire Bid, Report Says The Islamic militant group Hamas has offered Israel a proposal for a broad, extended cease-fire in exchange for guarantees that the Israeli army won't attack militants in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, an Israeli newspaper reported Friday.
Gulf News Haniyeh rejects Abbas move
Palestinian Prime Minister and senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh yesterday rejected a decision by President Mahmoud Abbas to assume security control over the Gaza Strip's border posts.
BBC Palestinian political rift grows Hamas' PM criticises the Palestinian president's decision to assume control of Gaza's border crossings.
FT EU rejects plan to suspend Palestinian aid European Union diplomats have rejected a proposal to suspend direct aid to the Palestinian Authority because some EU countries consider the measure ‘too brutal’.
U.S. Plans to Redirect Aid for Palestinians Much of the annual aid package will go toward basic humanitarian needs, such as education, health and food, as well as increased assistance for democracy promotion, officials say.
West Bank reality by S. Aloni - Machsom Watch struggles to show what's happening on stolen land

Al Ahram Going it alone Can the Syrian national opposition bring about democratic change? Omayma Abdel-Latif seeks some answers in Damascus
JP Syria prevents terror on northern borderSenior IDF officer: Motive behind prevention is fear of an Israeli reprisal.
Champress
Syria rules out Lebanon links ... for now
Syrians' TV Preferences Change After Al-Hariri Killing
Syria seeks 37 billion dollars in investment over five years
Syria Arap News Agency
Headlines of the Syrian Dailies
The Syrian dailies on Thursday highlighted the following headlines:

Iran ready for high-level talks, US resists Iran has prepared a high-level delegation to hold wide-ranging talks with the US, but the Bush administration is resisting the agenda suggested by Tehran despite pressure from European allies to engage the Islamic republic.
Al Ahram Interview:Mohamed El-Baradei: Nuclear dynamics
Asia Times Skeptics torpedo Iran's weapons claims Iran has tested advanced torpedoes and missiles as part of week-long war games in the Persian Gulf. The new weapons are claimed to be so advanced, in fact, that they match or beat anything the rest of the world can produce. Western analysts, however, are skeptical, saying they don't have enough information to go on and suspecting that Tehran is simply producing defiant propaganda.
CFR UGLY OPTIONS ON IRAN
Daily Star Iran is divided over talking to the U.S. By Abbas William Samii
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Time for a US/Iran Patch Up James E. Doyle and Sara Kutchesfahani1
Daily Telegraph Iran has missiles to carry nuclear warheads Iran has successfully developed ballistic missiles with the capability to carry nuclear warheads. Analysis of test firings of the Shahab-3 missile by military experts has concluded that Iran has been able to modify it to carry a basic nuclear bomb.
Leader - Iran's lethal ambitions Recent revelations confirm that Teheran is working both to produce a nuclear device and to ensure its delivery. The resulting confrontation over Iran's nuclear ambitions is thus set to run for years.
Antiwar Iran: The Next Neocon Target: Rep. Ron Paul

Washington Institute Quelling Iraq’s Sectarian Violence: What the United States Can Do By Michael Eisenstadt There are seven steps the United States can take to reduce or contain intercommunal conflict in Iraq, but tensions between domestic and military imperatives might soon close the U.S. window of opportunity.
Rumsfeld Challenges Rice on 'Tactical Errors' in Iraq
Bush Defends Iraq Strategy but Admits Mistakes By JOHN O'NEIL
President Bush told a town-hall meeting today that there had been problems with the "tactics" used in Iraq.
Los Angeles Times Iraq's Ruling Shiite Bloc Could Rupture
Jerusalem Post When being 'right' is bad policy By BARRY RUBINThe US wants to see an inclusive regime in Iraq, but dictating its composition or policies is dangerous.
BBC US 'in talks with Iraq militants'
The US ambassador to Iraq tells the BBC that US officials have held talks with insurgency-linked groups.
Najaf car bomb kills at least 10
Iraq faces up to militia problems
Who are the insurgents in Iraq?
Newsweek Renegade Iraq Cleric: From Thug to Kingmaker Deadly Vision: U.S. forces once had the renegade cleric in their cross hairs. Now he's too strong—and too popular—to confront.
Al Ahram The Kurdish question Fifteen people were killed and hundreds injured last week as pro-Kurdish riots swept across Turkey, raising fears that rising communal tensions could trigger ethnic conflict, Gareth Jenkins reports

Gulf News The scope of clashes in the Middle East
There are a number of flash points in the region which would have not been there had the US proceeded differently after 9/11.
US Senate Hearing Islamist Extremism in Europe
RFE/RL Muslims In Europe, Or European Muslims?
CSIS Currents and Crosscurrents of Radical Islamism
Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World : Exploring Gray Zones... Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Interview: Islam's Image In Europe And Imams As Bridge Builders

Thursday, April 06, 2006

BULLETIN No.88

CSIS Currents and Crosscurrents of Radical Islamism, Report Panel Transatlantic Dialogue on Terrorism
UPI Democracy and stability in the Middle East
The scope of clashes in the Middle East since 9/11 If the US had stopped with Afghanistan, its world standing might be better. By Pat M. Holt

Syria Comment
Is the Syrian Regime turning to Religion?
Champress
America Says It's Prepared To Listen to Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
Syria offers new initiative to contain the Iraqi crisis
Daily Star Can Hariri keep juggling clashing agendas? By Michael Young

Jerusalem Post France considers visa for Hamas rep Exclusive: French diplomat in Israel says that no decision has yet been taken.
BBC Hamas says PA coffers are 'empty' The Palestinian prime minister tells his first cabinet meeting the government is facing a deep financial crisis.
Fatah legacy puts Hamas under financial pressure
Editorial The Semantics of Mideast Peace It is a sign of how hopeless things are in the Middle East that the phrasing of a letter written by the foreign minister of the new Palestinian government was seized upon as a ray of light.
Labour to be senior partner with Kadima in Israel coalition
Daily Star Israel gives cold shoulder to Hamas overture
A unilateral Israeli withdrawal is not a forgone conclusion By David Kimche
Editorial Hamas is taking timid but noticeable steps toward peace
Former Israeli and Palestinian fighters unite to strive for peace
Shunned by their own governments, one-time enemies have been meeting in secret to end conflict in the region.
Israel, Turkey suspend deal to ship water in huge tankers

New York Times We Do Not Have a Nuclear Weapons Program By JAVAD ZARIF
Iran wants stability, peace and an inspections deal.
Atlantic Monthly The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq Now that Iran unquestionably intends to build a nuclear bomb, the international community has few options to stop it—and the worst option would be a military strike by James Fallows
American Conservative An October Surprise? By Patrick J. Buchanan - Bush has much to gain by attacking Iran.

In Bid to Rebuild Razed Bridge, Recovery and War Vie in Iraq
The American military's shifting priorities in Iraq illustrate the trade-off between combat and reconstruction.
Rumsfeld Challenges Rice on 'Tactical Errors' in Iraq
Daily Star The brutal elimination of Iraqi tolerance By Rami G. Khouri
Christian Science Monitor Has Zarqawi been demoted by Al Qaeda? Reports say the insurgent leader in Iraq was stripped of political duties after Amman attacks backlash.
WSJ Condi's Iraq Stumble The quickest way to lose is by alienating the Shiites.
Congress Debate on Iraq Grows Louder

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

BULLETIN No.87

Syria Imposing Stronger Curbs on Opposition Syrian officials are aggressively silencing domestic political opposition while accommodating religious conservatives.
Amnesty International Syria: New crackdown on government opponents
Syria Comment
Arab Mukhabarat Confab: Syria Wallflower
Baathists Find Religion
Economic News (April 4 2006)

Israelis ponder a land swap Some see trading Arab towns in Israel for Jewish settlements outside it as key to their survival as a Jewish state
Ha’aretz – Hamas FM Zahar refers to 'two-state solution' in letter to Annan
Amir Oren - When secret keepers become tattlers
Do not stand idly by It would be better for Israel that the war with Hamas not hurt the Palestinian people. The battle is against an organization and a government, not against a people or individuals.
Yedioth Ahronoth China invites Hamas to Beijing
Jerusalem Post View from America: American anti-Israel politics
BBC Hamas sets out stance to UN chief The Hamas-led Palestinian government tells Kofi Annan it wants to live side by side with its neighbours.
Noam Chomsky and the Pro-Israel Lobby: Fourteen Erroneous Theses
Washington Times Is al Qaeda targeting Israel?
Washington Note On Iran, Intelligence-Blind American War Planners Should Consult with the Better-Informed Israelis

American Conservative Iran: The Logic of Deterrence by Christopher Layne
RFE/RL – Iran - Defense Analyst Says Weapons Tests Signal 'Longer-Term Threat'
EurasiaNet Iran and China: Unlikely Partners BY KAMAL NAZER YASIN - Geopolitical circumstances and economic necessity are pushing Iran and China into an unlikely partnership. While Iran would like to forge a full-fledged strategic alliance, China appears more interested in concentrating on commerce, especially in the energy sphere.
Daily Telegraph Iran's show of strength A stealth flying boat, a radar-evading missile with multiple warheads, a rocket-torpedo and an anti-ship missile that cannot be jammed: with every day that passes, Iran announces a development in its military hardware.
Iran could strike first Simon Tisdall: International rules of war apply to all.
Democracy Arsenal Iran as the Un-Iraq
Iran Says It Can Handle Any Invasion
US Shifts Policy on Iran Arms Control Today

Guardian Jaafari Interview
I will not be forced out - Iraqi PM
Stratfor Global Second Quarter Forecast: The Presidency, Iraq and the Waiting Game ... (part One)
Washington Post Let the Iraqis Bargain By David Ignatius, To implement a unity government in Iraq, the Iraqis will need Americans to be patient and give their full political support.
New Republic How not to save Iraq Reaching out to Iraq's neighbors: a waste of time and maybe worse. by Steven A. Cook
Christian Science Monitor In Iraq, US still carries big stick In a delicate balancing act, the US applies political pressure even while encouraging sovereignty.
CSIS - Iraq's Evolving Insurgency and the Risk of Civil War -Anthony H. Cordesman, with the assistance of Eric M. Brewer and Sara Bjerg Moller
Editorial Divided they'll fall Shiites need to learn to share power in Iraq.
Democracy in Iraq Not A Priority in U.S. Budget
U.S. in Iraq: War Crimes? - Noam Chomsky, Mother Jones

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

BULLETIN No.86

Heritage Foundation Kadima's Victory and U.S. Policy on the Arab-Israeli Conflict by Ariel Cohen
Election Reveals Israeli Settlement Movement as a Dream Deserted
Newsweek - Israel Election: Old Spy, New Tricks
Dar Al-Hayat Four Years for Olmert and Hamas by Maher Othman - Hamas should not inadvertently contribute to imposing an international isolation not only on itself but on the Palestinian people at large. There is no point for Hamas to secure the governance and give Israel an excuse to avoid the negotiations.
IHT So pro-Israel that it hurts DANIEL LEVY - The role of the pro-Israel lobby in U.S.-Israel relations may need to be rethought, and either reformed from within or challenged from without.
Gulf News Is peace in the Middle East a small step nearer?
Ehud Olmert, leader of Kadima, the largest party in the 17th Knesset, will soon be heading for Washington at President George W. Bush's invitation for the ritual visit of an incoming Israeli prime minister.
Debka The “Thousands” of US Mistakes in Iraq and the Next Israeli Government
Daily Star Disintegration of Iraq would pose multiple problems for Israel By Asher Susser
Zahar: I dream of a map that does not show Israel Defends Hamas's goal of destroying Israel, founding Islamic state; stresses that Israeli 'occupation', not people, is the enemy.
Hamas groups clash Hamas has faced its toughest internal challenge yet, as rival militant groups in Gaza took part in a series of violent clashes that left four dead and dozens wounded.
Outside View: The mother of all sins By ALON BEN-MEIR - Committing an act of terror against Israel at this particular juncture, or even condoning it, is the worst mistake Hamas can make.
UPI Analysis: Hamas' diplomatic dilemma By Claude Salhani - Hamas' leadership will have to make a tough choice: remain steadfast and suffer the consequences, or recognize Israel and engage in dialogue with the Jewish state.
Daily Star A 'soft coup' using bread instead of tanks By Geoffrey Aronson - The policy debate in Washington sparked by the parliamentary victory of Hamas has ended. The decision is taken: support for a soft coup against the democratically elected government of Palestine. There is logic to this policy. The Hamas victory removed the fundamental rationale underlying American support for Palestinian self-government.
Boston Globe Most favored nation
(By Geoffrey Wheatcroft) In the controversy over a Kennedy School paper on 'the Israel lobby,' perhaps the most interesting question has gone largely unasked: Has the closeness of the US-Israel alliance been good for Israel? 'The lobby': Post and ripostes...
Report on Effect of Israel Lobby Distorts History, Critics Say
Ha’aretz – U.S. televangelist to launch Christian pro-Israel lobby John Hagee tells Jewish leaders that lobby, set for July launch, will be more powerful than AIPAC.
Those 'powerful' Jewish lobbyists By MARVIN SCHICK - Strange that we 'kvetch' when others get the message we're intentionally sending.
Justin Raimondo - The Lobby Strikes Back Harvard study of Israeli lobby's influence costs the academic dean of the Kennedy School his job
COMMENT: When the logic of vigilance undermines freedom of speech By Mark Mazower - It is all but impossible to have a sensible public discussion in the US about the relationship with Israel. The reasons for this – and the cost – warrant merit further consideration
Jerusalem Post View from America: The paranoid style of American anti-Israel politics
ArmsControlWonk Vanunu on Israeli Nuclear Arsenal [1]

The Syrian regime is not about to collapse By Nehad Ismail
Syria Comment
"New Year, Old Problems for Kurds in Syria," by Denselow and Taa'i
Secularists and Islamists demand that Khaddam Apologize
International banks join boycott of Syria
Amnesty Intl Charges Syria With New Crackdown on Government Opponents
Jerusalem Post What happened to the Cedar Revolution? By ERIK SCHECHTER - One of the strangest alliances is between a Christian general who fought the Syrians, and Hizbullah.
Daily Telegraph 'Iran is watching us' Iran has set up a sophisticated intelligence gathering operation in southern Lebanon to identify targets in northern Israel in the event of a military confrontation over its controversial nuclear programme.

Washington Post Attacking Iran May Trigger Terrorism U.S. Experts Wary of Military Action Over Nuclear Program
Dar Al-Hayat What to Do About Iran's Nuclear Program by Patrick Clawson - Arab states do not like living near one nuclear state, Israel; living near two would be even worse. If Iran were to complete its announced plan to build facilities that put it within a few months of having a nuclear bomb, then other states in the region may decide they have to react, starting an arms race throughout the Middle East.
Sunday Telegraph Secret Iran strike talks The Government is to hold secret talks with defence chiefs to discuss possible military strikes against Iran.
Leader - No more pussyfooting around Iran A direct military strike against Iran's nuclear interests may be a necessary last resort, but the West's earlier objective should be to support the opposition groups to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the mullah rulers.
Editorial A Faltering Coalition While U.N. Security Council nations waffle, Iran's nuclear program proceeds.
Gulf News Iran is dangerously fuelling tension
Iran is adding fuel to the tension by indulging in an unjustified arms race - the latest being the two radar-evading missiles, including the allegedly "fastest" underwater torpedo.
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Iran far from nuke bomb' Ex-inspector Blix: Tehran at least five years away from nuke bomb, peaceful settlement possible
Guardian If one side in a conflict goes nuclear, the other is bound to follow suit David Hirst: The Iranian crisis can only be understood as the inevitable result of Israel's US-backed WMD monopoly in the region.
NPQ How to resolve the US-Iran nuclear standoff: Brent Scowcroft on why the US is wrong to address proliferation by dividing the world into friends and foes.
Financial Times COMMENT: Dialogue can stop Iran at the nuclear threshold By James Dobbins and Ray Takeyh - It is time for the Bush administration to appreciate that the only way to act against Iranian proliferation is through direct negotiations, write Ray Takeyh and James Dobbins.
Iran’s war games see oil futures rise by $2 Crude oil prices jumped to their highest level since Hurricane Katrina amid uncertainty about Nigerian supplies and as Iran announced it had tested new weapons during war games in the Strait of Hormuz.

WSJ Can the Shiite Center Hold? - The unanticipated consequences of "Iraqification." Reuel Marc Gerecht
Daily Star It's time to tackle Iraq's civil war By Ghassan Atiyyah - People tend to slip into civil war. As Abraham Lincoln in reference to the American Civil War said, "All dreaded it, all sought to avert it. And the war came."
Washington Post Once Upon a Time In Baghdad . . . Eugene Robinson "If only . . . " used to be nothing more than the wish of a fairy tale protagonist who was out of options, as in "If only a handsome prince would arrive and save the day," or "If only a brave huntsman would happen by and perform some Abu Ghraib-style interrogation on this big
Time Can Iraq's Militias Be Tamed?
Los Angeles Times Once-Supportive Shiites Call On Premier to Quit Ibrahim Jafari loses key supporters over his inability to form a new Iraqi government. The U.S. blames inaction for the growing violence.
Daily Telegraph Leader We should leave Iraq sooner rather than later The argument about withdrawal from Iraq is one of timing and method rather than of principle. We all want the "troops out". The question is when.
Project on Defense Alternatives Insurgent Iraq "Links to full-text online articles and reports about the Iraqi insurgency."
New York Times Editorial The Endgame in Iraq Iraq is becoming a country that America should be ashamed to support, let alone occupy.
Sectarian Strife Fuels Gun Sales in Baghdad
Civilians in Iraq Flee Mixed Areas as Killings Rise
Civil War Festers in Remote Pakistan Province
Iraq' s Premier Is Asked to Quit as Shiites Split
Newsweek - Sadr Strikes - Renegade Iraq Cleric: From Thug to Kingmaker U.S. forces once had the renegade cleric in their cross hairs. Now he's too strong—and too popular—to confront.
Washington Times Support eroding for Iraqi leader
UPI Policy Watch: U.S. choices in Iraq civil war
The New Republic Approach Shot by Spencer Ackerman Khalilzad has a smart strategy for Iraq. Is it too late? NYT Surviving Is Also Part of the Job By JOHN F. BURNS In the celebration at Jill Carroll's return, there will be renewed debate among editors and reporters about the entire enterprise of foreign reporting in Iraq.
Washington Post Editorial Breaking the Iraqi Tie President Bush could do more to stop the political squabbling in Baghdad
Stratfor Second-Quarter Forecast: The Presidency, Iraq and the Waiting Game ... (Part Two)
The Times Report: Zarqawi Booted for Bloody Tactics
Asia Times A silver bullet aimed at Iraq's head Sunnis, Kurds and now even a key faction in the dominant Shi'ite bloc, all with the support of the US, are lining up against Ibrahim al-Jaafari to prevent him from carrying on as Iraqi premier. This is all very well, but Jaafari departing the scene will only create a new set of circumstances, including rival Shi'ite militias, that will make it even more difficult to form a stable government. - Ehsan Ahrari