Talking to Syria: An Important Test for Damascus - Andrew J. Tabler (New York Times-Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Syria Is the Mideast Key - Claude Salhani, Washington Times
The Road to Damascus The National Interest The notion that Iran would be “isolated” even if Syria became Israel’s best friend, a member of NATO or some Turkish- (or French-) led Middle Eastern Union, ... But a closer relationship with Bashar Assad will not weaken the mullahs in Tehran.
U.S. Seeks to Woo Syria, But Price Could Be Steep - Jay Solomon and Dada Raad (Wall Street Journal)
The Syria Temptation -- And Why Obama Must Resist It BY: Bret Stephens Commentary A peace deal between Syria and Israel is all but impossible, despite the assurances of experts who should know better.
FT Israel has choice on peace, says Assad Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, has suggested he would sign a peace settlement with Israel even without a resolution to the Palestinian conflict, but warned that any such deal would be largely symbolic
Jerusalem Post Netanyahu will focus first on PA, not Syria, senior adviser says Gold: Idea that Netanyahu would withdraw fully from Golan is unfounded mythology; Assad: No normalization till Israel-Palestinian conflict resolved
Is Bibi interested in peace with Syria?
Assad: Site Israel bombed was built over Syrian president doesn't elaborate on type of construction, questions claim of uranium at site.
Opposition in Syria is dying with dissident By David Schenker
Syria's Journey Back From the Cold BY: Ian Black The Guardian Obama's commitment to improving relations with Syria could change the way US Midde East policy is heading.
New US-Syria talks 'constructive'
A senior US envoy in Damascus says the first high-level contact with Syria in four years has been 'very constructive'.
US: Syria Can Be a Major Mideast Force
Clinton: U.S. to push for Israel-Syria reconciliation
Senior U.S. envoys hold talks in Syria The highest-level visit in more than four years signals President Obama's new approach to the Mideast. Experts predict it will lead to restoration of full diplomatic ties with Syria.
Turkey ready to renew Israel-Syria track Jerusalem Post
US Diplomatic Overture to Syria Unlikely to Narrow Gulf of DifferencesCouncil on Foreign Relations
US officials find ‘common ground’ in Syria The United States wants to see ‘forward momentum’ on peace talks between Syria and Israel and believes Syria could help Middle East stability, a US official said after high-level talks in Damascus
Assad purges Syrian security services ahead of new bid for Beirut
Lebanon: Background and U.S. Relations
The politics of assassination Mohanad Hage Ali: Will the UN's special court bring a new era of accountability for political killings in Lebanon?
Talking to Hizbullah
U.S. warns it won't recognize PA unity gov't sans Fayyad
Can Hamas Be Deterred? - Steven Klein (Ha'aretz)
Olmert to Barak: You're negating achievements of Gaza op
World takes dim view of Lieberman in FM post Choice will almost certainly encourage U.S. to keep its distance from Netanyahu's government.
ANALYSIS / Netanyahu doesn't really want Lieberman as foreign minister
Source: Indictment will force Lieberman to quit cabinet within weeks
Hamas won't sit in Fayad-led unity gov't
Group "rejects any US interference in [Palestinian] internal affairs;" Hamas, Fatah set to begin talks.
New gov't to tackle economy, security
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Iran capable of making bomb' Following US army declaration that Tehran has enough nuclear material to create atom bomb, Military Intelligence chief tells cabinet Iranians have crossed technological threshold but have yet to change their strategy
Abbas seeks reconciliation
''The faster a Fatah-Hamas gov't is formed, the faster Gaza will be rebuilt', PA president says
Setback for Pro-Israel Hawks in US by Bernd Debusmann
A Palestinian unity government is best for Israel By Zvi Bar'el
How We Built an Ultra-Right Wing Government BY: Uri Dromi Miami Herald Whenever my American friends used to tease me about the lousy political system we have in Israel, they would point to the many parties and factions we have here, and to the difficulty of forming a coalition government.
Official: Hamas Serious in Reaching Reconciliation Deal
Netanyahu's key foreign policy staff by Steven J. Rosen
Center for Security Studies (CSS)· No. 49: The Middle East Conflict after the Gaza War
CRS U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians
Rebuilding Gaza to Raze It Again by Uri Avnery
Israel facing challenge of mending ties with Muslim world
CRS Israel and Hamas: Conflict in Gaza (2008-2009)
Can Friends of Israel Trust Obama? - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
BULLETIN No. 233
Why Is Syria Getting an Olive Branch? - Claudia Rosett, Forbes
Syrian-Iranian Ties: Deterioration or Activation? Asharq Alawsat,
Iran to Syria: détente is accepted with Saudi Arabia, not moreBy Sarkis Naoum An Nahar, 2/6/2009 Naoum asserts that "knowledgeable Arab sources" said the success or failure of the Arab reconciliation initiative issued by Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abul Aziz in Kuwait will be determined in less than two months. "The periodic Arab Summit scheduled to be held in Doha will determine the destiny of this initiative and whether the Arab leaders will partake, act responsibly, restore solidarity, and resolve many crises, or if some of them will abstain from attending or choose to reduce their level of participation." Though efforts to crown this initiative with success--and of course the summit--must encompass all Arab countries, Naoum says, "the same source explained that serious efforts are made to convince Syria--after becoming the only Arab wing of the Islamic Republic of Iran--to fix the Arab home and build good Arab-Iranian relations in what secures the present and future of the Arab nation. Through its relation with Hamas and Hezbollah, in addition to its alliance with Iran, Syria has become a direct or indirect source for supporting Islamist Sunni fundamentalism and radical currents that believe in violence to bring about a desired change. "Has Syria started to translate the Arab reconciliation initiative on the ground," the columnist asks? "Syria is trying to find a way to be closer to reconciliation without having to pay a costly price. Syria does not mind if Arab sides, including the Palestinian Authority, play a role in this regard." Success, however, depends on Iran's consent or on a Syrian-Iranian agreement over all issues. "President Bashar al-Assad deployed one of his assistants to Tehran, who came back saying that Iran does not mind a détente with Saudi Arabia, but not anything more. Therefore, the Arabs might witness Saudi-Syrian reconciliation in the short run. But this will not be final as long as Iran needs to maintain its Arab and Islamic cards until the American administration decides on its position towards Tehran." Link to full text in primary source.
Senator John Kerry says U.S. eager to talk to Syria
Lebanese Rally Backs U.N. Tribunal Looking Into ’05 Killing of Ex-Leader
Search for justice
Four years on, Rafik Hariri's son seeks answers
ANALYSIS / For Livni and Netanyahu, rotating government could be the only option Netanyahu believes everything will change when he gets the president's nod to form a coalition
IHT Can this batch do peace?
By MARTIN INDYK Neither Netanyahu nor even Lieberman wants an all right-wing government in Israel.
Israel's Biggest Danger - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek Today they're 20 percent of the country's population. Demographers predict they'll be 25 percent by 2025.
Editorial Israel's Step Backward
How the Obama administration should react to the rightward swing in last week's election
U.S., EU indicate they prefer Kadima-Likud unity government
U.S. expected to pressure Israel over settlement construction
Slow Obama stance on Iran worries Israel
Turkish army furious over IDF officer's comments
Beyond Gaza - Bilal Y. SaabIsrael's Gaza operation will not achieve a strategic outcome that goes beyond a breakable ceasefire. Hamas will find a way to eventually re-arm and re-engage in the same destructive behavior against Israel. At the same time, Hamas leaders will not be able to explain to Palestinians how shelling Israeli towns with rockets and terrorizing Israeli society will better their lives and advance the cause for statehood. Negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians based on the 1967 boundaries seem almost futile today.
Is Iran Still Building the Bomb? BY LAURA ROZEN
The National The old carrots and sticks won’t break the US standoff with Iran Tony Karon : If Mr Obama sticks to the zero-enrichment demand, the chances are his diplomatic overture will be short-lived.
Muslim Brotherhood and Iran - Mehdi Khalaji, Washington Institute
WINEP Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Iran Recent examples of cooperation among Shiite and Sunni extremists raise new questions about whether Iran can improve its relationship with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. While such a breakthrough remains unlikely, the consequences for the United States of such a union would be very damaging
Changing Middle East Dynamics - Couloumbis, Ahlstrom & Weaver, RCW
Syrian-Iranian Ties: Deterioration or Activation? Asharq Alawsat,
Iran to Syria: détente is accepted with Saudi Arabia, not moreBy Sarkis Naoum An Nahar, 2/6/2009 Naoum asserts that "knowledgeable Arab sources" said the success or failure of the Arab reconciliation initiative issued by Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abul Aziz in Kuwait will be determined in less than two months. "The periodic Arab Summit scheduled to be held in Doha will determine the destiny of this initiative and whether the Arab leaders will partake, act responsibly, restore solidarity, and resolve many crises, or if some of them will abstain from attending or choose to reduce their level of participation." Though efforts to crown this initiative with success--and of course the summit--must encompass all Arab countries, Naoum says, "the same source explained that serious efforts are made to convince Syria--after becoming the only Arab wing of the Islamic Republic of Iran--to fix the Arab home and build good Arab-Iranian relations in what secures the present and future of the Arab nation. Through its relation with Hamas and Hezbollah, in addition to its alliance with Iran, Syria has become a direct or indirect source for supporting Islamist Sunni fundamentalism and radical currents that believe in violence to bring about a desired change. "Has Syria started to translate the Arab reconciliation initiative on the ground," the columnist asks? "Syria is trying to find a way to be closer to reconciliation without having to pay a costly price. Syria does not mind if Arab sides, including the Palestinian Authority, play a role in this regard." Success, however, depends on Iran's consent or on a Syrian-Iranian agreement over all issues. "President Bashar al-Assad deployed one of his assistants to Tehran, who came back saying that Iran does not mind a détente with Saudi Arabia, but not anything more. Therefore, the Arabs might witness Saudi-Syrian reconciliation in the short run. But this will not be final as long as Iran needs to maintain its Arab and Islamic cards until the American administration decides on its position towards Tehran." Link to full text in primary source.
Senator John Kerry says U.S. eager to talk to Syria
Lebanese Rally Backs U.N. Tribunal Looking Into ’05 Killing of Ex-Leader
Search for justice
Four years on, Rafik Hariri's son seeks answers
ANALYSIS / For Livni and Netanyahu, rotating government could be the only option Netanyahu believes everything will change when he gets the president's nod to form a coalition
IHT Can this batch do peace?
By MARTIN INDYK Neither Netanyahu nor even Lieberman wants an all right-wing government in Israel.
Israel's Biggest Danger - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek Today they're 20 percent of the country's population. Demographers predict they'll be 25 percent by 2025.
Editorial Israel's Step Backward
How the Obama administration should react to the rightward swing in last week's election
U.S., EU indicate they prefer Kadima-Likud unity government
U.S. expected to pressure Israel over settlement construction
Slow Obama stance on Iran worries Israel
Turkish army furious over IDF officer's comments
Beyond Gaza - Bilal Y. SaabIsrael's Gaza operation will not achieve a strategic outcome that goes beyond a breakable ceasefire. Hamas will find a way to eventually re-arm and re-engage in the same destructive behavior against Israel. At the same time, Hamas leaders will not be able to explain to Palestinians how shelling Israeli towns with rockets and terrorizing Israeli society will better their lives and advance the cause for statehood. Negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians based on the 1967 boundaries seem almost futile today.
Is Iran Still Building the Bomb? BY LAURA ROZEN
The National The old carrots and sticks won’t break the US standoff with Iran Tony Karon : If Mr Obama sticks to the zero-enrichment demand, the chances are his diplomatic overture will be short-lived.
Muslim Brotherhood and Iran - Mehdi Khalaji, Washington Institute
WINEP Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Iran Recent examples of cooperation among Shiite and Sunni extremists raise new questions about whether Iran can improve its relationship with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. While such a breakthrough remains unlikely, the consequences for the United States of such a union would be very damaging
Changing Middle East Dynamics - Couloumbis, Ahlstrom & Weaver, RCW
İsrail Seçim Sonuçlarının Kısa Analizi: Milliyetçi Sağın Yükselişi
Tzipi Livni liderliğindeki Kadima Partisi’nin İsrail genel seçimlerinden birinci çıkması sürpriz olarak değerlendirilse de genel eğilim açısından aslında ısandıktan beklenen sonuç çıkmıştır. Mecliste, milliyetçi sağ-merkez sol dağılımındaki denge milliyetçi sağ lehine değişmiştir. Bir önceki seçimlerde 12 olan sandalye sayısını 27’ye yükselten Likud’un yanı sıra, İsrailli Arap vatandaşlara yönelik radikal tutumlarıyla bilinen aşırı milliyetçi/seküler İsrail Evimiz Partisi kazandığı 15 sandalye ile seçimlerin esas galibi olmuştur. Aşırı dinci olarak sınıflandırabilecek Şas ve Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği partileri bir önceki seçimlere göre pozisyonlarını nispeten korumuştur. Ulusal Birlik ve Yahudi Evi Partileri’nin kazandığı toplam 7 sandalye yükselen milliyetçi sağa katkı yapmıştır.
Merkez-sol partiler Kadima’nın birinciliğine rağmen güç kaybetmiştir. İşçi Partisi’nin sandalye sayısı 13’e, sosyal demokrat Meretz’inki ise 3’e düşmüştür. Sol blok kapsamında değerlendirilen Arap partileri ise 11 sandalye kazanmıştır. Yeni Meclis dağılımında milliyetçi sağın 65’e 55 gibi bir üstünlüğü söz konusudur. Ancak sağ-sol blokları kendi içinde bir bütün olarak değerlendirmemek gerekir. Örneğin sol blok içinde değerlendirilen Arap Partiler koalisyon hesapları açısından sistem dışıdır. Dolayısıyla bu dağılımı 65’e 44 olarak vermek daha doğru olabilir. Sağ blok içindeki küçük partiler, Netanyahu liderliğinde bir hükümeti Livni’nin başbakanlığına tercih edecektir. İsrail siyasetine ilişkin genel kanı, aşırı dinci partilerin milliyetçi sağ ile daha rahat çalışma imkânı bulacağı yönündedir. Bu genel olarak doğru bir tespit olsa da Lieberman’ın İsrail Evimiz Partisi bu anlamda istisna sayılabilir. Aşırı milliyetçi olarak değerlendirilen İsrail Evimiz Partisi lideri Liberman’ın seküler siyaset anlayışı aşırı dinci partilerle çelişmektedir. Şas Partisi kurucusu Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef seçimler öncesinde, “Lieberman’a oy veren şeytana oy verir” şeklinde sert bir açıklama dahi yapmıştı. İsrail Evimiz Partisi aşırı sağ kanatta olmakla beraber Filistin sorununa bakışı Likud’dan farklılık taşımaktadır. İki devletli çözümü ve Kudüs’ün belli kısımlarının gerekirse Filistinlilere verilmesini savunan partinin esas sorunu, ülke içindeki Arap kökenli İsrail vatandaşlarının yeni sınır düzenlemesiyle Filistin sınırları içine alınması, Batı Şeria’daki Yahudi yerleşimcilerin de İsrail’e dâhil edilmesidir. Koalisyon hesaplarında her bloğun kendi içindeki bu farklılıkların hesaba katılması gerekir.
Milliyetçi sağın yükselişi İsrailli seçmenlerin siyasi tercihlerinde güvenlik arayışının öne çıkması ile açıklanabilir. İran’da İsrail’e yönelik radikal söyleme sahip yönetimin nükleerleşme çabaları, Hizbullah’ın kuzeyde yarattığı tehdit, Gazze’de HAMAS’ın iktidarı ele geçirmesi ve İsrail yerleşim merkezlerine düzenlediği roket saldırıları, bu arayışın temel gerekçeleri olarak sıralanabilir. Oyların şehirlere göre dağılımına bakıldığında milliyetçi sağın yükselişinin gerekçeleri net olarak anlaşılmaktadır:
Sderot, Beerşeba, Aşkelon gibi HAMAS’ın roket saldırılarına maruz kalan yerleşim yerlerinde Likud ve İsrail Evimiz partileri ezici bir üstünlük sağlamaktadır. Kadima ve İşçi Partisi buralarda Şas Partisi’nin dahi gerisinde yer almaktadır. Hizbullah “tehdidini” en yakından hisseden ve 2006 Savaşı’nda roket saldırılarına maruz kalan Nahariye gibi şehirlerde yine güvenlik kaygıları nedeniyle Likud ve İsrail Evimiz Partileri ön planda bulunmaktadır. Bu iki partinin büyük farkla öne çıktığı diğer bir başka yer ise Batı Şeria’daki İsrailli yerleşimcilerin oy kullandıkları sandıklardır. Burada da doğal olarak güvenliğin yanı sıra ideolojik referanslar da ön plandadır. İsrail Evimiz Lideri Liberman’ın Batı Şeria’daki yerleşimcileri kapsayacak biçimde İsrail sınırlarının yeniden çizilmesi yönündeki vaadi bu bölgede etkili olmuştur. İsrail Evimiz bu bölgelerde Likud’un ardından ikinci sırada yer almaktadır. Barış ve müzakere yanlısı İşçi Partisi ise Batı Şeria’da neredeyse silinmiş durumdadır. Kadima da bu bölgede genel oy potansiyelinin çok altında yer almaktadır. Kadima Partisi nispeten güvenli bölgede yaşayan, sanayileşmiş büyük şehirlerde öne çıkmaktadır. İşçi Partisi de diğer bölgelerdeki performansına göre buralarda daha başarılı durumdadır. Başkent Tel Aviv ve onun hinderlandında yer alan Rishon Letzion, kıyı şeridindeki Hayfa gibi şehirlerde ise barış beklentileri ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Kadima büyük farkla birinci sırada yer almaktadır. İşçi Partisi, geleneksel olarak güçlü olduğu Hayfa şehrinde üstünlüğünü Kadima’ya kaptırmış olsa da genel potansiyeline nazaran güçlü bir konumda bulunmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Likud zayıf kalırken İsrail Evimiz, Şas gibi radikal partiler hiçbir varlık gösterememektedir. Şas ve Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği partileri ise, dini tercihlerin belirleyici olduğu Kudüs’te öne çıkmaktadır.
Bu dağılım İsrail-Filistin ilişkilerindeki şiddet sarmalını ortaya koymaktadır. İsrail’in politikaları HAMAS’ın siyaset tarzına güç kazandırırken, HAMAS ve Hizbullah’ın yarattığı kaygılar İsrail toplumunda sert tedbir beklentilerini öne çıkarmaktadır. Kadima Partisi hükümeti, ancak sağ bloğa politika tavizleri ve önemli bakanlıklar vererek kurabilecektir. Bu durum İsrail-Filistin ve İsrail-Suriye barış müzakerelerinin devamı için risk oluşturabilir. Müzakere sürecinin devamını sağlayacak faktör ise Obama yönetiminin bölge sorunlarının çözümünde oynayacağı “olumlu” rol ve etkin katılım beklentisidir.
Merkez-sol partiler Kadima’nın birinciliğine rağmen güç kaybetmiştir. İşçi Partisi’nin sandalye sayısı 13’e, sosyal demokrat Meretz’inki ise 3’e düşmüştür. Sol blok kapsamında değerlendirilen Arap partileri ise 11 sandalye kazanmıştır. Yeni Meclis dağılımında milliyetçi sağın 65’e 55 gibi bir üstünlüğü söz konusudur. Ancak sağ-sol blokları kendi içinde bir bütün olarak değerlendirmemek gerekir. Örneğin sol blok içinde değerlendirilen Arap Partiler koalisyon hesapları açısından sistem dışıdır. Dolayısıyla bu dağılımı 65’e 44 olarak vermek daha doğru olabilir. Sağ blok içindeki küçük partiler, Netanyahu liderliğinde bir hükümeti Livni’nin başbakanlığına tercih edecektir. İsrail siyasetine ilişkin genel kanı, aşırı dinci partilerin milliyetçi sağ ile daha rahat çalışma imkânı bulacağı yönündedir. Bu genel olarak doğru bir tespit olsa da Lieberman’ın İsrail Evimiz Partisi bu anlamda istisna sayılabilir. Aşırı milliyetçi olarak değerlendirilen İsrail Evimiz Partisi lideri Liberman’ın seküler siyaset anlayışı aşırı dinci partilerle çelişmektedir. Şas Partisi kurucusu Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef seçimler öncesinde, “Lieberman’a oy veren şeytana oy verir” şeklinde sert bir açıklama dahi yapmıştı. İsrail Evimiz Partisi aşırı sağ kanatta olmakla beraber Filistin sorununa bakışı Likud’dan farklılık taşımaktadır. İki devletli çözümü ve Kudüs’ün belli kısımlarının gerekirse Filistinlilere verilmesini savunan partinin esas sorunu, ülke içindeki Arap kökenli İsrail vatandaşlarının yeni sınır düzenlemesiyle Filistin sınırları içine alınması, Batı Şeria’daki Yahudi yerleşimcilerin de İsrail’e dâhil edilmesidir. Koalisyon hesaplarında her bloğun kendi içindeki bu farklılıkların hesaba katılması gerekir.
Milliyetçi sağın yükselişi İsrailli seçmenlerin siyasi tercihlerinde güvenlik arayışının öne çıkması ile açıklanabilir. İran’da İsrail’e yönelik radikal söyleme sahip yönetimin nükleerleşme çabaları, Hizbullah’ın kuzeyde yarattığı tehdit, Gazze’de HAMAS’ın iktidarı ele geçirmesi ve İsrail yerleşim merkezlerine düzenlediği roket saldırıları, bu arayışın temel gerekçeleri olarak sıralanabilir. Oyların şehirlere göre dağılımına bakıldığında milliyetçi sağın yükselişinin gerekçeleri net olarak anlaşılmaktadır:
Sderot, Beerşeba, Aşkelon gibi HAMAS’ın roket saldırılarına maruz kalan yerleşim yerlerinde Likud ve İsrail Evimiz partileri ezici bir üstünlük sağlamaktadır. Kadima ve İşçi Partisi buralarda Şas Partisi’nin dahi gerisinde yer almaktadır. Hizbullah “tehdidini” en yakından hisseden ve 2006 Savaşı’nda roket saldırılarına maruz kalan Nahariye gibi şehirlerde yine güvenlik kaygıları nedeniyle Likud ve İsrail Evimiz Partileri ön planda bulunmaktadır. Bu iki partinin büyük farkla öne çıktığı diğer bir başka yer ise Batı Şeria’daki İsrailli yerleşimcilerin oy kullandıkları sandıklardır. Burada da doğal olarak güvenliğin yanı sıra ideolojik referanslar da ön plandadır. İsrail Evimiz Lideri Liberman’ın Batı Şeria’daki yerleşimcileri kapsayacak biçimde İsrail sınırlarının yeniden çizilmesi yönündeki vaadi bu bölgede etkili olmuştur. İsrail Evimiz bu bölgelerde Likud’un ardından ikinci sırada yer almaktadır. Barış ve müzakere yanlısı İşçi Partisi ise Batı Şeria’da neredeyse silinmiş durumdadır. Kadima da bu bölgede genel oy potansiyelinin çok altında yer almaktadır. Kadima Partisi nispeten güvenli bölgede yaşayan, sanayileşmiş büyük şehirlerde öne çıkmaktadır. İşçi Partisi de diğer bölgelerdeki performansına göre buralarda daha başarılı durumdadır. Başkent Tel Aviv ve onun hinderlandında yer alan Rishon Letzion, kıyı şeridindeki Hayfa gibi şehirlerde ise barış beklentileri ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Kadima büyük farkla birinci sırada yer almaktadır. İşçi Partisi, geleneksel olarak güçlü olduğu Hayfa şehrinde üstünlüğünü Kadima’ya kaptırmış olsa da genel potansiyeline nazaran güçlü bir konumda bulunmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Likud zayıf kalırken İsrail Evimiz, Şas gibi radikal partiler hiçbir varlık gösterememektedir. Şas ve Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği partileri ise, dini tercihlerin belirleyici olduğu Kudüs’te öne çıkmaktadır.
Bu dağılım İsrail-Filistin ilişkilerindeki şiddet sarmalını ortaya koymaktadır. İsrail’in politikaları HAMAS’ın siyaset tarzına güç kazandırırken, HAMAS ve Hizbullah’ın yarattığı kaygılar İsrail toplumunda sert tedbir beklentilerini öne çıkarmaktadır. Kadima Partisi hükümeti, ancak sağ bloğa politika tavizleri ve önemli bakanlıklar vererek kurabilecektir. Bu durum İsrail-Filistin ve İsrail-Suriye barış müzakerelerinin devamı için risk oluşturabilir. Müzakere sürecinin devamını sağlayacak faktör ise Obama yönetiminin bölge sorunlarının çözümünde oynayacağı “olumlu” rol ve etkin katılım beklentisidir.
Friday, February 13, 2009
BULLETIN No. 232
Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities International Crisis Group
White House warms to thaw in ties with Syria US diplomats and officials are stepping up efforts to improve relations with Damascus even though it is on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism
Israel and Syria were ready for direct talks before Gaza war Turkish official: Olmert, Assad held indirect phone call through Erdogan, were near joint statement
Debka US-Syrian talks: Precursor for Obama's dialogue with Iran?
Syrian: President Will Meet With The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
Syrian President Bashar al Assad will meet with Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, the head of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Stratfor sources reported Feb. 12.
An election that raises Syria's appetite By Michael Young
Syria poised to transfer Iranian mobile anti-air missiles to Lebanese Hizballah
Yedioth Ahronoth Kerry to meet Assad in Syria
Senator's spokesman: Obama administration aware of plans, helping arrange Mideast trip
Assessing the Obama Mideast team [ STEVEN J. ROSEN,
Lebanon: A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the development of the Lebanese Armed Forces since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005.
When will Hizbullah avenge Mughniyeh assassination?
Retribution for Mughniyah: A Dish Served Cold?
With 99 percent of votes counted, Kadima leads Likud 28 to 27 seats Not certain that Livni will be able to muster the 61-seat coalition needed to lead the country
Livni: I'll fight on to form coalition, despite poor odds A day of coalition talks makes clear Netanyahu has considerable advantage in forging right-wing government
White House: Unclear how Israel poll will affect Mideast peace State Department spokesman says U.S. does not intend to intervene in internal Israeli politics
Abbas: Isolate Netanyahu gov't like Hamas
Major reforms are unlikely, but electoral threshold could be raised
Who will be the next defense minister?
Jerusalem PostConsensus forming on Likud-led unity gov't with Kadima
Netanyahu ready to give Livni 2 of top 4 ministries and equal cabinet representation; Kadima privately admits Bibi will be asked to form coalition.
'Right-wingers outnumber leftists 2-1' Poll shows 30% identify as right-wing, 13% center-right, 24% center, 13% center-left, 6% Left.
Analysis: The coalition calculus of saying 'no' to America By HERB KEINONBacked by a wide coalition, a prime minister can stand all kinds of pressure from abroad
Election equations
Agenda-driven media outlets claim Israel holds nearly all diplomatic cards
The Pollard Affair: Was it dual loyalty?
[ ELI KAVON, The heavy price of citizenship is that Jews lost their national identity.
The rise of Avigdor Lieberman
With Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli voters said no to the past By Danny Ayalon
The right-wing candidate represents a disillusionment with policies that have failed to achieve peace
'Livni, consider opposition' Political sources estimate President Peres will task Likud leader Netanyahu with forming next government; Kadima official says chairwoman 'should not necessarily be dragged into coalition that also features Shas, Lieberman'
Don't fear rightist coalition
The Rise of Avigdor Lieberman BY: M.J. Rosenberg Los Angeles Times Israel is becoming a right-wing country. That is the most significant thing you need to know about Tuesday's election returns.
Hamas Challenge to the PLO: Opportunities and ProspectsDays after the end of Israeli military operations in Gaza, Hamas began a campaign to replace the PLO with a new, Hamas-dominated body devoted to violence. The outcome of this political struggle will shape the future of Palestinian politics and prospect for peac
Don't expect Israel's parties to be very unlike By Barnett R. Rubin
Jeffrey Goldberg: A Stunning Israeli Election
Former CIA Official on Engagement With Hamas and Middle East Peace
Israel's Big Winner: 'Peace Skeptics' BY: Benny Avni New York Post Israeli voters yesterday threw a wrench into the plans of the world's peace processors -- President Obama included.
Israel's Age of Fragmentation BY: Carlo Strenger The Guardian The country's overwhelming anxiety led to a narrow election, stifling innovative ideas for peace and allowing the right to thrive.
Israel's Baffling Election Explained - Fania Oz-Salzberger, Forbes
A Toxic Force Rises in Israel - Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian
New Leadership, Same Problems for Israel - Emile Hokayem, The National
The Somalization of Hamas : Dr. Hamad Al-Majid
After Parliamentary Elections, Israel Faces Political Deadlock
Netanyahu offers Livni 10 portfolios, may form government without Lieberman
US opinionators fazed by rise of Israeli right?
U.S. Urged to Be Flexible on Hamas BY: NIcholas Kralev The Washington Times An influential Palestinian lawmaker visiting Washington urged the Obama administration to accept a government for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that would bridge divisions between the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
ANALYSIS: Success of rightist bloc may propel Netanyahu into PM's chair
Aluf Benn: For the sake of peace, Labor and Kadima must merge Merger would bolster two-state solution supporters, keep Israel from clashing with Obama government.
Bradley Burston: Will Livni, Netanyahu settle for rotation, sharing premiership?
Israel vote deals a setback to U.S. peace effort in Mideast In backing right-wing parties, Israelis have shown they don't want to negotiate with a weak Palestinian Authority
Scepticism about peace process drives electorate's drift towards the right With almost all votes counted in the Israeli elections, rightwing and religious parties control 64 of the 120 seats
Winep Israeli Election Results: Implications for Middle East Peacemaking
Key to who will govern Israel: Avigdor Lieberman In a country divided between the centrist Kadima and hawkish Likud parties, a new kingmaker emerges from the far right.
Netanyahu, Livni Start to Build Competing Coalitions in Israel
Bad news for President Obama? Simon Tisdall: Israel's election result could force the US leader to negotiate with Binyamin Netanyahu can a thinker and an in-fighter connect?
ANALYSIS / Without Lieberman, Livni has no government Voters who decided to vote Kadima instead of Labor will wake up to hear that Livni is courting far-rightist
Akiva Eldar / What is it that draws the masses in Israel to Kadima?
Jerusalem PostAnalysis: No doubting failure of electoral system By DAVID HOROVITZThe next prime minister was again apparently denied the parliamentary support needed to lead Israel.
Analysis: Electorate sends another mixed message By HERB KEINONThe people are leaning rightward, but they don't want that sharp a turn.
Complications for 'king-maker' Lieberman
As possibility of strong bloc wanes, Israel Beiteinu looks set to become linchpin for unity government.
Lieberman: I prefer right-wing coalition Israel Beiteinu leader says his top priority for the next government is to topple Hamas in Gaza.
Halevy: Israel 'more than capable' of overcoming threat from Iran
Yedioth Ahronoth 2 prime ministers Ambiguous election result may force Netanyahu, Livni to agree to rotation, Attila Somfalvi says
Livni offers Netanyahu unity
Kadima chairwoman calls on Likud rival to join national unity government under her leadership
Israeli rivals claim election win
The leaders of Israel's two main parties, Likud and Kadima, both say they have won the country's snap election.
Horse-trading begins
Jordan and Hamas: a window briefly opened, then shut By Rana Sabbagh-Gargour
Brookings Now What? The Path Forward for Israel’s New Government
As Gazans Look for Way Into Egypt, Cairo Looks for Way Out of Crisis BY: Larry Luxner The Washington Diplomat - Gaza’s other neighbor — Egypt — hasn’t escaped criticism either. In addition to worldwide calls for Israel to allow humanitarian access into the strip, the majority of which is surrounded by the Jewish state, aid groups have urged Egypt to open up the seven-mile portion it controls at Gaza’s southern end — an area Israel says is also commonly used to smuggle weapons.
What Hamas Has Wrought - Edgar M. Bronfman (Huffington Post)
Gaza: Hamas Kneecappings, Punishment Beatings and Killings of "Collaborators" Revealed (Amnesty International)
White House warms to thaw in ties with Syria US diplomats and officials are stepping up efforts to improve relations with Damascus even though it is on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism
Israel and Syria were ready for direct talks before Gaza war Turkish official: Olmert, Assad held indirect phone call through Erdogan, were near joint statement
Debka US-Syrian talks: Precursor for Obama's dialogue with Iran?
Syrian: President Will Meet With The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
Syrian President Bashar al Assad will meet with Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, the head of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Stratfor sources reported Feb. 12.
An election that raises Syria's appetite By Michael Young
Syria poised to transfer Iranian mobile anti-air missiles to Lebanese Hizballah
Yedioth Ahronoth Kerry to meet Assad in Syria
Senator's spokesman: Obama administration aware of plans, helping arrange Mideast trip
Assessing the Obama Mideast team [ STEVEN J. ROSEN,
Lebanon: A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the development of the Lebanese Armed Forces since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005.
When will Hizbullah avenge Mughniyeh assassination?
Retribution for Mughniyah: A Dish Served Cold?
With 99 percent of votes counted, Kadima leads Likud 28 to 27 seats Not certain that Livni will be able to muster the 61-seat coalition needed to lead the country
Livni: I'll fight on to form coalition, despite poor odds A day of coalition talks makes clear Netanyahu has considerable advantage in forging right-wing government
White House: Unclear how Israel poll will affect Mideast peace State Department spokesman says U.S. does not intend to intervene in internal Israeli politics
Abbas: Isolate Netanyahu gov't like Hamas
Major reforms are unlikely, but electoral threshold could be raised
Who will be the next defense minister?
Jerusalem PostConsensus forming on Likud-led unity gov't with Kadima
Netanyahu ready to give Livni 2 of top 4 ministries and equal cabinet representation; Kadima privately admits Bibi will be asked to form coalition.
'Right-wingers outnumber leftists 2-1' Poll shows 30% identify as right-wing, 13% center-right, 24% center, 13% center-left, 6% Left.
Analysis: The coalition calculus of saying 'no' to America By HERB KEINONBacked by a wide coalition, a prime minister can stand all kinds of pressure from abroad
Election equations
Agenda-driven media outlets claim Israel holds nearly all diplomatic cards
The Pollard Affair: Was it dual loyalty?
[ ELI KAVON, The heavy price of citizenship is that Jews lost their national identity.
The rise of Avigdor Lieberman
With Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli voters said no to the past By Danny Ayalon
The right-wing candidate represents a disillusionment with policies that have failed to achieve peace
'Livni, consider opposition' Political sources estimate President Peres will task Likud leader Netanyahu with forming next government; Kadima official says chairwoman 'should not necessarily be dragged into coalition that also features Shas, Lieberman'
Don't fear rightist coalition
The Rise of Avigdor Lieberman BY: M.J. Rosenberg Los Angeles Times Israel is becoming a right-wing country. That is the most significant thing you need to know about Tuesday's election returns.
Hamas Challenge to the PLO: Opportunities and ProspectsDays after the end of Israeli military operations in Gaza, Hamas began a campaign to replace the PLO with a new, Hamas-dominated body devoted to violence. The outcome of this political struggle will shape the future of Palestinian politics and prospect for peac
Don't expect Israel's parties to be very unlike By Barnett R. Rubin
Jeffrey Goldberg: A Stunning Israeli Election
Former CIA Official on Engagement With Hamas and Middle East Peace
Israel's Big Winner: 'Peace Skeptics' BY: Benny Avni New York Post Israeli voters yesterday threw a wrench into the plans of the world's peace processors -- President Obama included.
Israel's Age of Fragmentation BY: Carlo Strenger The Guardian The country's overwhelming anxiety led to a narrow election, stifling innovative ideas for peace and allowing the right to thrive.
Israel's Baffling Election Explained - Fania Oz-Salzberger, Forbes
A Toxic Force Rises in Israel - Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian
New Leadership, Same Problems for Israel - Emile Hokayem, The National
The Somalization of Hamas : Dr. Hamad Al-Majid
After Parliamentary Elections, Israel Faces Political Deadlock
Netanyahu offers Livni 10 portfolios, may form government without Lieberman
US opinionators fazed by rise of Israeli right?
U.S. Urged to Be Flexible on Hamas BY: NIcholas Kralev The Washington Times An influential Palestinian lawmaker visiting Washington urged the Obama administration to accept a government for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that would bridge divisions between the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
ANALYSIS: Success of rightist bloc may propel Netanyahu into PM's chair
Aluf Benn: For the sake of peace, Labor and Kadima must merge Merger would bolster two-state solution supporters, keep Israel from clashing with Obama government.
Bradley Burston: Will Livni, Netanyahu settle for rotation, sharing premiership?
Israel vote deals a setback to U.S. peace effort in Mideast In backing right-wing parties, Israelis have shown they don't want to negotiate with a weak Palestinian Authority
Scepticism about peace process drives electorate's drift towards the right With almost all votes counted in the Israeli elections, rightwing and religious parties control 64 of the 120 seats
Winep Israeli Election Results: Implications for Middle East Peacemaking
Key to who will govern Israel: Avigdor Lieberman In a country divided between the centrist Kadima and hawkish Likud parties, a new kingmaker emerges from the far right.
Netanyahu, Livni Start to Build Competing Coalitions in Israel
Bad news for President Obama? Simon Tisdall: Israel's election result could force the US leader to negotiate with Binyamin Netanyahu can a thinker and an in-fighter connect?
ANALYSIS / Without Lieberman, Livni has no government Voters who decided to vote Kadima instead of Labor will wake up to hear that Livni is courting far-rightist
Akiva Eldar / What is it that draws the masses in Israel to Kadima?
Jerusalem PostAnalysis: No doubting failure of electoral system By DAVID HOROVITZThe next prime minister was again apparently denied the parliamentary support needed to lead Israel.
Analysis: Electorate sends another mixed message By HERB KEINONThe people are leaning rightward, but they don't want that sharp a turn.
Complications for 'king-maker' Lieberman
As possibility of strong bloc wanes, Israel Beiteinu looks set to become linchpin for unity government.
Lieberman: I prefer right-wing coalition Israel Beiteinu leader says his top priority for the next government is to topple Hamas in Gaza.
Halevy: Israel 'more than capable' of overcoming threat from Iran
Yedioth Ahronoth 2 prime ministers Ambiguous election result may force Netanyahu, Livni to agree to rotation, Attila Somfalvi says
Livni offers Netanyahu unity
Kadima chairwoman calls on Likud rival to join national unity government under her leadership
Israeli rivals claim election win
The leaders of Israel's two main parties, Likud and Kadima, both say they have won the country's snap election.
Horse-trading begins
Jordan and Hamas: a window briefly opened, then shut By Rana Sabbagh-Gargour
Brookings Now What? The Path Forward for Israel’s New Government
As Gazans Look for Way Into Egypt, Cairo Looks for Way Out of Crisis BY: Larry Luxner The Washington Diplomat - Gaza’s other neighbor — Egypt — hasn’t escaped criticism either. In addition to worldwide calls for Israel to allow humanitarian access into the strip, the majority of which is surrounded by the Jewish state, aid groups have urged Egypt to open up the seven-mile portion it controls at Gaza’s southern end — an area Israel says is also commonly used to smuggle weapons.
What Hamas Has Wrought - Edgar M. Bronfman (Huffington Post)
Gaza: Hamas Kneecappings, Punishment Beatings and Killings of "Collaborators" Revealed (Amnesty International)
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Yeni Bölgesel Şartlar ve İsrail-Suriye Barış Görüşmeleri
İsrail Başbakanı Olmert’in istifasının ardından ertelenen İsrail-Suriye dolaylı barış görüşmeleri Gazze saldırıları sonrası çıkmaza girmiştir. Suriye, operasyon sürerken görüşmeleri askıya aldığını açıklamıştır. Belirsizliğin hâkim olduğu görüşmelerin geleceği konusunda etkili olabilecek faktörleri şu şekilde sıralayabiliriz: Gazze operasyonunun yarattığı yeni bölgesel güç dağılımı ve İsrail siyasetine etkileri, Obama yönetiminin getireceği yeni yaklaşım ve arabuluculuk rolü üstlenen Türkiye’nin pozisyonunda oluşan değişim.
1. Gazze Operasyonu ve Barış Görüşmeleri: Gazze operasyonu bölgesel güç dengelerini İsrail lehinde değiştirmiştir. HAMAS’ın Suriye etkisine daha açık olan askeri kanadı önemli ölçüde zayıflatılmıştır. İkinci Lübnan Savaşı ile psikolojik üstünlüğü ele geçirdiğini düşünen Suriye, şimdi karşısında güç kullanımında tereddüt etmeyen bir İsrail bulmuştur. Suriye güç dengelerinin aleyhine döndüğü bir ortamda pazarlık masasına zayıf konumda oturmak istemeyecektir. Ayrıca Suriye’nin hassas olduğu Filistin sorunu konusunda, görüşmelerin devam ettiği bir dönemde, İsrail’in saldırı düzenlemesi barış ortamını yok ederek görüşmelerin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyecektir. İsrail açısından da Filistin sorununun öne çıkması, Suriye ile görüşmelerinin rafa kaldırılmasını gündeme getirebilir.
2. İsrail İç Politikası: “İran tehdidi”nin yarattığı kaygılar, 2006 Lübnan (Hizbullah) Savaşı’nın başarısızlığı, Gazze’den tek taraflı geri çekilme sonrası HAMAS’ın düzenlediği roket saldırıları ve son Gazze operasyonu, İsrail kamuoyunun tercihlerinde ulusal güvenlik konularını birinci sıraya yükseltmiştir. Dolayısıyla İsrail seçimlerinden Kadima Partisi birinci sırada çıkmış olsa da genel eğilim İsrail sağı lehinde olmuştur. Likud’un az farkla ikinci sırada yer almasının yanında İsrail Evimiz ve Yahudi Evi gibi milliyetçi sağ partiler seçimden güçlenerek çıkmıştır. İsrail siyasetinin kendine özgü yapısı nedeniyle Knesset’te sandalye kazanan her parti koalisyon görüşmelerinde önemli roller üstlenmektedir. Kadima Partisi hükümeti kurmayı başarabilse bile sağ partilerin etkin olacağı bir koalisyon ile karşılaşabiliriz.
İsrail siyasetinde milliyetçi-sağ partilerin güçlenmesi İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyebilir. Partisi ikinci sırada çıkmış olsa da halen başbakanlık koltuğunun önemli adaylarından Likud lideri Netanyahu, muhalefet döneminde İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin sürdürülmesine karşı çıkmaktaydı ve kampanya döneminde “barış ancak güçlü iken olur ve İsrail Golan Tepeleri ile çok daha güçlü” söylemiyle stratejik tepelerin Suriye’ye iadesine karşı çıktığını ifade etmişti. Netenyahu, Suriye sınırının zaten güvenli olduğunu ve barışa ihtiyaç olmadığını düşünmektedir. Golan’ın iadesinin gündeme gelmediği bir ortamda İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini tartışmak da anlamsızdır. Seçimlerden beklendiği gibi güçlenerek çıkan ve hükümet içinde bazı bakanlıkları alması muhtemel Evimiz İsrail partisi de “barış karşılığı toprak” ilkesine karşı çıkmaktadır. Dolayısıyla İsrail iç politikasının alacağı yeni şekil zaten kırılgan bir zeminde yürüyen dolaylı görüşmelerin sonlanmasına neden olabilir.
3. Obama ve Ortadoğu: İsrail’de olası milliyetçi-sağ hükümete karşılık ABD’de Obama yönetiminin işbaşında olması, beraber çalışabilirlik açısından umut verici bir tablo çizmemektedir. İsrail sağının müzakereleri ikinci plana atan, kuvvet kullanımı ve tek taraflılığı öne alan yaklaşımı Obama yönetiminin Ortadoğu politikalarıyla çelişebilir. Daha önce Kuzey İrlanda sorununun çözümünde önemli rol oynamış deneyimli müzakereci George Mitchell’in Ortadoğu Özel Temsilciliğine atanması hem diplomasi yoluyla çözüm hem de Barış Süreci’ne verilecek öncelik için önemli işaretlerdir.
Barış Süreci’ne ilişkin Obama yönetiminden genel olarak beklenen, sürecin İsrail-Suriye ayağına öncelik vermesi yönündedir. Bu yaklaşımın temelinde, karmaşık Filistin sorununu çözmeden önce İsrail çevresinde barışçıl bir ortam yaratma düşüncesi yatmaktadır. Suriye’ye Golan Tepeleri’nin iadesi sağlanırsa, Suriye’nin İran, Hizbullah ve HAMAS ile ittifakı zayıflatılabilir, İran’ın da bu örgütler üzerindeki etkisi sınırlanabilir. Obama yönetimi henüz işbaşına gelmeden Suriye’ye yönelik açılımın sinyallerini vermiştir. Obama ekibinden bir grup, görüşmeler yapmak üzere Suriye’nin başkentine gitmiştir. Bu doğrultuda en çarpıcı gelişme, yakın dönemde ABD’nin Suriye’ye büyükelçi atayabileceği yönündeki haberlerdir. Bu açılımlar gerçekleşirse İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin de ciddi olarak gündeme gelmesini bekleyebiliriz. ABD’nin aktif olarak katılımı ve desteği, görüşmelerin devamı açısından olumlu bir faktör olarak görülebilir. Görüşmelere soğuk bakması beklenen yeni İsrail yönetiminin ABD tarafından ikna edilmesi de gündeme gelebilir.
4. Türkiye’nin Rolü: Türkiye, Gazze operasyonu sonrasında bölgedeki ağırlığını daha çok Filistin tarafından yana koymuştur. Bu yaklaşımın Türkiye’ye belli avantajlar sağlaması kaçınılmazdır. Ancak diğer taraftan İsrail nezdinde Türkiye’nin tarafsızlık algısı erozyona uğramıştır. İsrail’de oluşacak yeni hükümetin Türkiye’yi tarafsız bir arabulucu olarak görme konusunda şüpheleri oluşabilir. Yine de, Filistin tarafında sağlanan güven ve itibar, İsrail açısından Türkiye’yi daha değerli bir arabulucu da yapabilir. Zaten Türk-İsrail ilişkileri pratikte şimdilik bir değişim göstermemiştir. Askeri ve ekonomik alanda işbirliği aynen sürmektedir. İki taraftan da ilişkilerin devamına ilişkin beklentileri dillendirmektedir. Dolayısıyla HAMAS ve Filistin halkı üzerinde etkin bir Türkiye, arabuluculuk açısından ön plana çıkabilir. Son olayların arabuluculuk rolünü nasıl etkileyeceği sorusunun yanıtı, eleştirilerin İsrail’de yarattığı hasarın derinliği ve Türkiye’nin bundan sonra eleştiri dozunu nasıl ayarlayacağı ile doğrudan bağlantılı olacaktır. Türkiye’nin arabulucu rolündeki değişimin yönü, İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileyebilir.
1. Gazze Operasyonu ve Barış Görüşmeleri: Gazze operasyonu bölgesel güç dengelerini İsrail lehinde değiştirmiştir. HAMAS’ın Suriye etkisine daha açık olan askeri kanadı önemli ölçüde zayıflatılmıştır. İkinci Lübnan Savaşı ile psikolojik üstünlüğü ele geçirdiğini düşünen Suriye, şimdi karşısında güç kullanımında tereddüt etmeyen bir İsrail bulmuştur. Suriye güç dengelerinin aleyhine döndüğü bir ortamda pazarlık masasına zayıf konumda oturmak istemeyecektir. Ayrıca Suriye’nin hassas olduğu Filistin sorunu konusunda, görüşmelerin devam ettiği bir dönemde, İsrail’in saldırı düzenlemesi barış ortamını yok ederek görüşmelerin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyecektir. İsrail açısından da Filistin sorununun öne çıkması, Suriye ile görüşmelerinin rafa kaldırılmasını gündeme getirebilir.
2. İsrail İç Politikası: “İran tehdidi”nin yarattığı kaygılar, 2006 Lübnan (Hizbullah) Savaşı’nın başarısızlığı, Gazze’den tek taraflı geri çekilme sonrası HAMAS’ın düzenlediği roket saldırıları ve son Gazze operasyonu, İsrail kamuoyunun tercihlerinde ulusal güvenlik konularını birinci sıraya yükseltmiştir. Dolayısıyla İsrail seçimlerinden Kadima Partisi birinci sırada çıkmış olsa da genel eğilim İsrail sağı lehinde olmuştur. Likud’un az farkla ikinci sırada yer almasının yanında İsrail Evimiz ve Yahudi Evi gibi milliyetçi sağ partiler seçimden güçlenerek çıkmıştır. İsrail siyasetinin kendine özgü yapısı nedeniyle Knesset’te sandalye kazanan her parti koalisyon görüşmelerinde önemli roller üstlenmektedir. Kadima Partisi hükümeti kurmayı başarabilse bile sağ partilerin etkin olacağı bir koalisyon ile karşılaşabiliriz.
İsrail siyasetinde milliyetçi-sağ partilerin güçlenmesi İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyebilir. Partisi ikinci sırada çıkmış olsa da halen başbakanlık koltuğunun önemli adaylarından Likud lideri Netanyahu, muhalefet döneminde İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin sürdürülmesine karşı çıkmaktaydı ve kampanya döneminde “barış ancak güçlü iken olur ve İsrail Golan Tepeleri ile çok daha güçlü” söylemiyle stratejik tepelerin Suriye’ye iadesine karşı çıktığını ifade etmişti. Netenyahu, Suriye sınırının zaten güvenli olduğunu ve barışa ihtiyaç olmadığını düşünmektedir. Golan’ın iadesinin gündeme gelmediği bir ortamda İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini tartışmak da anlamsızdır. Seçimlerden beklendiği gibi güçlenerek çıkan ve hükümet içinde bazı bakanlıkları alması muhtemel Evimiz İsrail partisi de “barış karşılığı toprak” ilkesine karşı çıkmaktadır. Dolayısıyla İsrail iç politikasının alacağı yeni şekil zaten kırılgan bir zeminde yürüyen dolaylı görüşmelerin sonlanmasına neden olabilir.
3. Obama ve Ortadoğu: İsrail’de olası milliyetçi-sağ hükümete karşılık ABD’de Obama yönetiminin işbaşında olması, beraber çalışabilirlik açısından umut verici bir tablo çizmemektedir. İsrail sağının müzakereleri ikinci plana atan, kuvvet kullanımı ve tek taraflılığı öne alan yaklaşımı Obama yönetiminin Ortadoğu politikalarıyla çelişebilir. Daha önce Kuzey İrlanda sorununun çözümünde önemli rol oynamış deneyimli müzakereci George Mitchell’in Ortadoğu Özel Temsilciliğine atanması hem diplomasi yoluyla çözüm hem de Barış Süreci’ne verilecek öncelik için önemli işaretlerdir.
Barış Süreci’ne ilişkin Obama yönetiminden genel olarak beklenen, sürecin İsrail-Suriye ayağına öncelik vermesi yönündedir. Bu yaklaşımın temelinde, karmaşık Filistin sorununu çözmeden önce İsrail çevresinde barışçıl bir ortam yaratma düşüncesi yatmaktadır. Suriye’ye Golan Tepeleri’nin iadesi sağlanırsa, Suriye’nin İran, Hizbullah ve HAMAS ile ittifakı zayıflatılabilir, İran’ın da bu örgütler üzerindeki etkisi sınırlanabilir. Obama yönetimi henüz işbaşına gelmeden Suriye’ye yönelik açılımın sinyallerini vermiştir. Obama ekibinden bir grup, görüşmeler yapmak üzere Suriye’nin başkentine gitmiştir. Bu doğrultuda en çarpıcı gelişme, yakın dönemde ABD’nin Suriye’ye büyükelçi atayabileceği yönündeki haberlerdir. Bu açılımlar gerçekleşirse İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin de ciddi olarak gündeme gelmesini bekleyebiliriz. ABD’nin aktif olarak katılımı ve desteği, görüşmelerin devamı açısından olumlu bir faktör olarak görülebilir. Görüşmelere soğuk bakması beklenen yeni İsrail yönetiminin ABD tarafından ikna edilmesi de gündeme gelebilir.
4. Türkiye’nin Rolü: Türkiye, Gazze operasyonu sonrasında bölgedeki ağırlığını daha çok Filistin tarafından yana koymuştur. Bu yaklaşımın Türkiye’ye belli avantajlar sağlaması kaçınılmazdır. Ancak diğer taraftan İsrail nezdinde Türkiye’nin tarafsızlık algısı erozyona uğramıştır. İsrail’de oluşacak yeni hükümetin Türkiye’yi tarafsız bir arabulucu olarak görme konusunda şüpheleri oluşabilir. Yine de, Filistin tarafında sağlanan güven ve itibar, İsrail açısından Türkiye’yi daha değerli bir arabulucu da yapabilir. Zaten Türk-İsrail ilişkileri pratikte şimdilik bir değişim göstermemiştir. Askeri ve ekonomik alanda işbirliği aynen sürmektedir. İki taraftan da ilişkilerin devamına ilişkin beklentileri dillendirmektedir. Dolayısıyla HAMAS ve Filistin halkı üzerinde etkin bir Türkiye, arabuluculuk açısından ön plana çıkabilir. Son olayların arabuluculuk rolünü nasıl etkileyeceği sorusunun yanıtı, eleştirilerin İsrail’de yarattığı hasarın derinliği ve Türkiye’nin bundan sonra eleştiri dozunu nasıl ayarlayacağı ile doğrudan bağlantılı olacaktır. Türkiye’nin arabulucu rolündeki değişimin yönü, İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileyebilir.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
BULLETIN No. 231
Washington Post For Obama, a Syria Solution First A Middle East Deal Obama Could Build On
“A New U.S. Policy For Syria,” by Seth Kaplan
Enemy of Our Enemy PDFBy Neil Clark Syria is a natural ally in the war on terror.
Bush to Olmert: Why are you giving Syria the Golan for nothing?
Syria at the crossroads Chris Phillips: While resisting Bush long provided an excuse not to get on with reform, it's now time for Bashar al-Assad to deliver
How Not to Negotiate with Syria - Itamar Rabinovich, Jerusalem Post
How not to negotiate with Syria
The Times Damascene Conversion Syria must stop playing the spoiler and co-operate in peace-making
Financial Times Double blow for Syria’s energy security Declining crude prices and an energy supply shortage are forcing Damascus to rethink its international isolation and to accelerate the restructuring of its economy
Editorial Comment: Dallying with Syria The need is to get Iran interested in regional stability, not a dalliance with Damascus premised on an illusion
Ha’aretz – Ari Shavit: While the Palestinian track fails, let's focus on Syria
Courting Syria - Rime Allaf, Middle East Times
American carrots for Syrian sticks?
Start With Syria By: Aaron David Miller The Washington PostPresident-elect Barack Obama will be bombarded with recommendations about how to approach Arab-Israeli peacemaking. One piece of advice he should not take is to make Israeli-Palestinian peace his top priority
Syria and Britain all ears nowBritish Foreign Secretary David Miliband has made it clear from Damascus that Syria is a problem-solver, rather than a problem-seeker in the Arab world. This signals a new start in relations between the two countries and bodes well for tackling problems in Lebanon and Iraq. Some intelligence-sharing is also a help. - Sami Moubayed
Stratfor Lebanon, Syria: Cutting Strands in a Militant Web
Russia Will Not Sell Iskander Missiles to Syria in Near Future
No Russian missile sale to Syria for now
Moscow won't export missile system to foreign clients before full deployment in Russian arm
Assad is getting away with murder
Syria barely hides terrorist role, yet the West allows itself to be duped.
Yedioth Ahronoth 'IWhat Assad really wants/ BechorsraSyrian leader wants Golan so he can shift to new model of conflict with Israeleli strike more likely'
This show's diplomacy is for real - and it's worth a hundred Milibands Simon Jenkins: The V&A exhibition takes Syrians seriously in their own capital, unlike the hectoring speeches of the foreign secretary
Selling Syria to a Skeptical American Audience U.S. News & World Report
IAEA Broadens Probe of Syria The IAEA is seeking information from Israel and North Korea in its probe of Syria's suspected nuclear program.
Syria and the Nuclear Cops IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei believes Syria deserves a new reactor.
So it Really was a Reactor in Syria INSS
U.S., Nuclear Chief Clash Over Syria
Philip Hensher: Showing Syria our fragile side is our strength
Syria and Libya: frozen in the past, fearing the present By Raja Kamal
Daily Telegraph Hizbollah arsenal 'triples' Israel has accused Lebanon's militant Shia group of tripling its arsenal to 42,000 rockets, many with a range long enough to reach beyond Tel Aviv.
Israeli analysts prepare next war against Lebanon
Israel's Lebanon War Showcased Cluster Bomb Horrors
Daily Star Is the UN leading the Lebanese on? By Michael Young
IHT Olmert to Obama: Think again By ROGER COHEN
Jerusalem Post Analysis: J'lem mostly pleased with Obama choices By HERB KEINON The Clinton White House is generally considered by gov't officials as one that was solidly pro-Israel.
Israel asks Bush to explain its 'special relationship' with U.S. to ObamaIsraeli officials concerned Obama may push arms control that could weaken Israel's strategic deterrence
Olmert Expects Peace Deal Progress Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel and the Palestinians could reach an agreement on the "core issues" of their century-old conflict very soon.
Foreseeing a Clinton State Dept., Israelis and Arabs retool their expectations Israel is applauding her all-but-certain nomination as a check on Obama, while the news has damped Arabs' hopes of a swing away from Bush policies
US Tells Israel No Wars Until Obama in Office
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Two-state vision still alive' Prime Minister Olmert, President Bush meet in White House, say two-state vision still the right solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict; US strongly believes Israel will benefit from establishment of Palestinian state, Bush says
New York Times THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Obama’s Iraq Inheritance For the first time, there is a chance that a reasonably stable democratizing government, though no doubt corrupt in places, can take root in the Iraqi political space.
Editorial Road Map in Iraq When Mr. Obama takes office, a sovereign Iraqi government and a U.S. withdrawal timetable will be in place.
Washington Post Bush's Iran Policy Has Failed By David Ignatius, Absent some last-minute fireworks, President Bush will leave office with a kind of double failure on Iran: Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear-weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue
Will Israel attack Iran? , Paul Rogers
Dennis Ross: How to Stop Iran From Getting Nukes
“A New U.S. Policy For Syria,” by Seth Kaplan
Enemy of Our Enemy PDFBy Neil Clark Syria is a natural ally in the war on terror.
Bush to Olmert: Why are you giving Syria the Golan for nothing?
Syria at the crossroads Chris Phillips: While resisting Bush long provided an excuse not to get on with reform, it's now time for Bashar al-Assad to deliver
How Not to Negotiate with Syria - Itamar Rabinovich, Jerusalem Post
How not to negotiate with Syria
The Times Damascene Conversion Syria must stop playing the spoiler and co-operate in peace-making
Financial Times Double blow for Syria’s energy security Declining crude prices and an energy supply shortage are forcing Damascus to rethink its international isolation and to accelerate the restructuring of its economy
Editorial Comment: Dallying with Syria The need is to get Iran interested in regional stability, not a dalliance with Damascus premised on an illusion
Ha’aretz – Ari Shavit: While the Palestinian track fails, let's focus on Syria
Courting Syria - Rime Allaf, Middle East Times
American carrots for Syrian sticks?
Start With Syria By: Aaron David Miller The Washington PostPresident-elect Barack Obama will be bombarded with recommendations about how to approach Arab-Israeli peacemaking. One piece of advice he should not take is to make Israeli-Palestinian peace his top priority
Syria and Britain all ears nowBritish Foreign Secretary David Miliband has made it clear from Damascus that Syria is a problem-solver, rather than a problem-seeker in the Arab world. This signals a new start in relations between the two countries and bodes well for tackling problems in Lebanon and Iraq. Some intelligence-sharing is also a help. - Sami Moubayed
Stratfor Lebanon, Syria: Cutting Strands in a Militant Web
Russia Will Not Sell Iskander Missiles to Syria in Near Future
No Russian missile sale to Syria for now
Moscow won't export missile system to foreign clients before full deployment in Russian arm
Assad is getting away with murder
Syria barely hides terrorist role, yet the West allows itself to be duped.
Yedioth Ahronoth 'IWhat Assad really wants/ BechorsraSyrian leader wants Golan so he can shift to new model of conflict with Israeleli strike more likely'
This show's diplomacy is for real - and it's worth a hundred Milibands Simon Jenkins: The V&A exhibition takes Syrians seriously in their own capital, unlike the hectoring speeches of the foreign secretary
Selling Syria to a Skeptical American Audience U.S. News & World Report
IAEA Broadens Probe of Syria The IAEA is seeking information from Israel and North Korea in its probe of Syria's suspected nuclear program.
Syria and the Nuclear Cops IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei believes Syria deserves a new reactor.
So it Really was a Reactor in Syria INSS
U.S., Nuclear Chief Clash Over Syria
Philip Hensher: Showing Syria our fragile side is our strength
Syria and Libya: frozen in the past, fearing the present By Raja Kamal
Daily Telegraph Hizbollah arsenal 'triples' Israel has accused Lebanon's militant Shia group of tripling its arsenal to 42,000 rockets, many with a range long enough to reach beyond Tel Aviv.
Israeli analysts prepare next war against Lebanon
Israel's Lebanon War Showcased Cluster Bomb Horrors
Daily Star Is the UN leading the Lebanese on? By Michael Young
IHT Olmert to Obama: Think again By ROGER COHEN
Jerusalem Post Analysis: J'lem mostly pleased with Obama choices By HERB KEINON The Clinton White House is generally considered by gov't officials as one that was solidly pro-Israel.
Israel asks Bush to explain its 'special relationship' with U.S. to ObamaIsraeli officials concerned Obama may push arms control that could weaken Israel's strategic deterrence
Olmert Expects Peace Deal Progress Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel and the Palestinians could reach an agreement on the "core issues" of their century-old conflict very soon.
Foreseeing a Clinton State Dept., Israelis and Arabs retool their expectations Israel is applauding her all-but-certain nomination as a check on Obama, while the news has damped Arabs' hopes of a swing away from Bush policies
US Tells Israel No Wars Until Obama in Office
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Two-state vision still alive' Prime Minister Olmert, President Bush meet in White House, say two-state vision still the right solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict; US strongly believes Israel will benefit from establishment of Palestinian state, Bush says
New York Times THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Obama’s Iraq Inheritance For the first time, there is a chance that a reasonably stable democratizing government, though no doubt corrupt in places, can take root in the Iraqi political space.
Editorial Road Map in Iraq When Mr. Obama takes office, a sovereign Iraqi government and a U.S. withdrawal timetable will be in place.
Washington Post Bush's Iran Policy Has Failed By David Ignatius, Absent some last-minute fireworks, President Bush will leave office with a kind of double failure on Iran: Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear-weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue
Will Israel attack Iran? , Paul Rogers
Dennis Ross: How to Stop Iran From Getting Nukes
Thursday, November 06, 2008
BULLETIN No. 230
Damascus - Washington: Awaiting a New Language!
Seven Questions for Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha By: Interview: Imad Moustapha Foreign Policy Was Sunday’s raid by U.S. forces on Syrian territory ”terrorist aggression,” electoral politics, or righteous punishment?
The Complicated Relationship Between Syria and al Qaeda By: David Schenker The Weekly Standard This past Sunday, U.S. helicopters targeted an al Qaeda operative on Syrian territory who shuttled terrorists into Iraq. Syria condemned the strike as a violation of its sovereignty and a "serious aggression."
No policy shift forecast in Damascus (UPI) -- The stance from Damascus toward al-Qaida in the wake of a U.S. raid may soften, but it should not reflect a sweeping policy change, an analysis says.
Asia Times American dream expelled from Syria By Sami MoubayedWhat is Assad's Next Move? By: Olivier Guitta The Middle East Times Not a week goes by now without Syria showing up on the radar. In fact, after I analyzed the recent slew of incidents and their possible interpretations in my article last week titled "It is Clutch Time for Syria," this week brought new puzzling developments
American dream expelled from SyriaThe closure of the American school in Damascus, in response to the recent United States raid into Syria, is a blow for Washington's hopes of winning over young hearts and minds in the Arab world. It is also a sad epitaph for the institution, which had promoted the "American dream" to young Syrians since the Dwight D Eisenhower administration. - Sami Moubayed
China Tests Its Mettle in Syria By: Chris Zambelis Asia TimesChina's attempts to forge close and multifaceted ties with key Middle East states such as Syria, a country with modest oil reserves relative to its neighbors and a struggling economy, reflect the increasing complexity of Beijing's foreign policy.
Duplicity in Damascus While many in the West view Syrian support for Hamas and Hizballah as "cards" that will someday be traded in negotiations, revelations of Damascus's ties to al-Qaeda suggest that support for terror is intrinsic to the regime, likely dooming any potential U.S. diplomatic engagement to failure.
US's Syrian raid sets Iraq on fire The United States raid into Syria has upset every key actor in Iraq. The government, beyond being embarrassed at not being consulted, has come under even more pressure from Shi'ite parties not to sign a security agreement with the United States. The Sunni Awakening Councils are reconsidering their cooperation in fighting insurgents, while powerful tribes which virtually control the border are overnight turning anti-American. As for Syria, it has the power to cause havoc in Iraq. - Sami Moubayed
Syria asks foreign staff of U.S. institutions to leave country Syria FM says his country will resort to more painful measures if U.S. fails to explain Oct. 26 helicopter raid
MESH U.S. strikes Al Qaeda in Syria
Sunday Times Syria 'cooperated' in bloody US raid Eyewitnesses tell of horror of US cross-border raid but sources believe the intelligence services in Damascus secretly backed it
What Led to U.S. Raid on Syria and What Next
Syria talks meant to pressure Iran
Western diplomatic sources: Israel concerned delaying talks until elections may affect momentum.
Q&A: Syrian Official Speaks on U.S. Raid
Spotlight on Syria Malik al-Abdeh: Syria's human rights record has become a major liability – especially now it finds itself having to worry about world opinio
Syria rejects Israel’s calls to pursue Saudi peace plan Yoav SternLIKUD SUBMITS BILL TO BLOCK OLMERT NEGOTIATIONS WITH SYRIA
Syria Comment Syrian Officials Deny Syrian Complicity in Raid
Hizballah shops for anti-tank missiles in Moscow
Hizbullah and the ‘spies’ It seems that Hizbullah exposed ‘Israeli spies’ for deterrence purposes
Lebanon reportedly unmasks “Mossad” network spying also on Syria
In Lebanon, pragmatism tempers jihadist aims In a move to avoid a second deadly battle in a Palestinian refugee camp, some groups have taken a rare step away from Islamist militancy.
NEWSWEEK The Prospect Of An Odd Couple,” By Kevin Peraino
U.S. Elections / The next American president won't fulfill Israel's fantasies
Likud to US: We won't honor Syria deal Steinitz says party doesn't believe it must bind itself to an agreement reached by a caretaker gov't
Obama will find Bush has done the peacemaking for him If Kadima-Labor coalition remains intact, Obama won't have to work too hard to nudge Israel
Is Obama good for Israel?
Obama will be good for Israel if he’s able to restore America’s power, Ron Ben-Yishai says
'Obama is pro-Israel' US president-elect starts selecting top gov't officials, but son of Israeli immigrant yet to accept chief of staff offer; aide to Rahm Emanuel tells Ynet, 'He would not consider role if he wasn't convinced Obama is pro-Israel'
Obama and Netanyahu's Complex Relationship
A President Obama could be a catalyst for peace By Ghassan Rubeiz
Tzipi Livni's choice, now Israel's choice
Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the designated heir to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, failed to form a governing coalition for the right reasons.
ANALYSIS / Is Obama a danger to Israel after all? The overwhelming majority of Jews will apparently maintain their historical loyalty to the Democrats
Some Israelis feel an urgency to attack Iran Officials say other nations quietly want Israel to act unilaterally against Tehran's nuclear ambitions. But an effective strike would be difficult and could stir up a wider conflict.
CRS U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians (PDF)
Iran Also Ripe for Change By: Hossein Askari Asia TimesIran, no less than the United States, is caught in the bitter economic winds that helped to drive the discredited old order out of the White House. The advent of an intelligent president in Washington could be the key factor in removing Iran as a major foreign policy issue for the US.
Asia Times The impending strike on Iran An American president is most powerful when in lame-duck status and ceding power to an opposing party. This presents a once-in-a-lifetime "opportunity" for President George W Bush. Military, social and especially economic factors point to a very simple conclusion: America will either attack Iran in the next two-and-a-half months, or it never will. - David Fink
WINEP From President to President: U.S. Middle East Policy at a Moment of Transition
Obama's Middle East Studies Mentors by Campus Watch
US influence in the Middle East on the decline
Obama-Biden on the Middle East
Seven Questions for Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha By: Interview: Imad Moustapha Foreign Policy Was Sunday’s raid by U.S. forces on Syrian territory ”terrorist aggression,” electoral politics, or righteous punishment?
The Complicated Relationship Between Syria and al Qaeda By: David Schenker The Weekly Standard This past Sunday, U.S. helicopters targeted an al Qaeda operative on Syrian territory who shuttled terrorists into Iraq. Syria condemned the strike as a violation of its sovereignty and a "serious aggression."
No policy shift forecast in Damascus (UPI) -- The stance from Damascus toward al-Qaida in the wake of a U.S. raid may soften, but it should not reflect a sweeping policy change, an analysis says.
Asia Times American dream expelled from Syria By Sami MoubayedWhat is Assad's Next Move? By: Olivier Guitta The Middle East Times Not a week goes by now without Syria showing up on the radar. In fact, after I analyzed the recent slew of incidents and their possible interpretations in my article last week titled "It is Clutch Time for Syria," this week brought new puzzling developments
American dream expelled from SyriaThe closure of the American school in Damascus, in response to the recent United States raid into Syria, is a blow for Washington's hopes of winning over young hearts and minds in the Arab world. It is also a sad epitaph for the institution, which had promoted the "American dream" to young Syrians since the Dwight D Eisenhower administration. - Sami Moubayed
China Tests Its Mettle in Syria By: Chris Zambelis Asia TimesChina's attempts to forge close and multifaceted ties with key Middle East states such as Syria, a country with modest oil reserves relative to its neighbors and a struggling economy, reflect the increasing complexity of Beijing's foreign policy.
Duplicity in Damascus While many in the West view Syrian support for Hamas and Hizballah as "cards" that will someday be traded in negotiations, revelations of Damascus's ties to al-Qaeda suggest that support for terror is intrinsic to the regime, likely dooming any potential U.S. diplomatic engagement to failure.
US's Syrian raid sets Iraq on fire The United States raid into Syria has upset every key actor in Iraq. The government, beyond being embarrassed at not being consulted, has come under even more pressure from Shi'ite parties not to sign a security agreement with the United States. The Sunni Awakening Councils are reconsidering their cooperation in fighting insurgents, while powerful tribes which virtually control the border are overnight turning anti-American. As for Syria, it has the power to cause havoc in Iraq. - Sami Moubayed
Syria asks foreign staff of U.S. institutions to leave country Syria FM says his country will resort to more painful measures if U.S. fails to explain Oct. 26 helicopter raid
MESH U.S. strikes Al Qaeda in Syria
Sunday Times Syria 'cooperated' in bloody US raid Eyewitnesses tell of horror of US cross-border raid but sources believe the intelligence services in Damascus secretly backed it
What Led to U.S. Raid on Syria and What Next
Syria talks meant to pressure Iran
Western diplomatic sources: Israel concerned delaying talks until elections may affect momentum.
Q&A: Syrian Official Speaks on U.S. Raid
Spotlight on Syria Malik al-Abdeh: Syria's human rights record has become a major liability – especially now it finds itself having to worry about world opinio
Syria rejects Israel’s calls to pursue Saudi peace plan Yoav SternLIKUD SUBMITS BILL TO BLOCK OLMERT NEGOTIATIONS WITH SYRIA
Syria Comment Syrian Officials Deny Syrian Complicity in Raid
Hizballah shops for anti-tank missiles in Moscow
Hizbullah and the ‘spies’ It seems that Hizbullah exposed ‘Israeli spies’ for deterrence purposes
Lebanon reportedly unmasks “Mossad” network spying also on Syria
In Lebanon, pragmatism tempers jihadist aims In a move to avoid a second deadly battle in a Palestinian refugee camp, some groups have taken a rare step away from Islamist militancy.
NEWSWEEK The Prospect Of An Odd Couple,” By Kevin Peraino
U.S. Elections / The next American president won't fulfill Israel's fantasies
Likud to US: We won't honor Syria deal Steinitz says party doesn't believe it must bind itself to an agreement reached by a caretaker gov't
Obama will find Bush has done the peacemaking for him If Kadima-Labor coalition remains intact, Obama won't have to work too hard to nudge Israel
Is Obama good for Israel?
Obama will be good for Israel if he’s able to restore America’s power, Ron Ben-Yishai says
'Obama is pro-Israel' US president-elect starts selecting top gov't officials, but son of Israeli immigrant yet to accept chief of staff offer; aide to Rahm Emanuel tells Ynet, 'He would not consider role if he wasn't convinced Obama is pro-Israel'
Obama and Netanyahu's Complex Relationship
A President Obama could be a catalyst for peace By Ghassan Rubeiz
Tzipi Livni's choice, now Israel's choice
Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the designated heir to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, failed to form a governing coalition for the right reasons.
ANALYSIS / Is Obama a danger to Israel after all? The overwhelming majority of Jews will apparently maintain their historical loyalty to the Democrats
Some Israelis feel an urgency to attack Iran Officials say other nations quietly want Israel to act unilaterally against Tehran's nuclear ambitions. But an effective strike would be difficult and could stir up a wider conflict.
CRS U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians (PDF)
Iran Also Ripe for Change By: Hossein Askari Asia TimesIran, no less than the United States, is caught in the bitter economic winds that helped to drive the discredited old order out of the White House. The advent of an intelligent president in Washington could be the key factor in removing Iran as a major foreign policy issue for the US.
Asia Times The impending strike on Iran An American president is most powerful when in lame-duck status and ceding power to an opposing party. This presents a once-in-a-lifetime "opportunity" for President George W Bush. Military, social and especially economic factors point to a very simple conclusion: America will either attack Iran in the next two-and-a-half months, or it never will. - David Fink
WINEP From President to President: U.S. Middle East Policy at a Moment of Transition
Obama's Middle East Studies Mentors by Campus Watch
US influence in the Middle East on the decline
Obama-Biden on the Middle East
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