BULLETIN No. 207

The Economist Syria A mystery unsolved
ABCNews EXCLUSIVE: The Case for Israel's Strike on Syria
RawStory Exclusive: Cheney hand seen in leaked Syria stories
Ha’aretz - Report: Israeli mole took pictures of Syrian facility ABC: U.S. urged Israel against strike; Washington Post: Syria dismantling site, possibly to hide evidence
Wall Street Journal What Happened in Syria? Congress deserves our best intelligence on alleged nuclear proliferation. By PETER HOEKSTRA and ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN
Way to Syrian conversion
Report: Israeli mole took pictures of Syrian facility ABC: U.S. urged Israel against strike; Washington Post: Syria dismantling site, possibly to hide evidence
Jerusalem Post Report: Israel had mole inside Syrian facility prior to strikeUS official tells ABC: CIA helped Israel pinpoint coordinates for strike, White House discouraged attack because 'there was no proof.'
The nuclear watchdog is checking US spy satellite images of Syrian site hit by Israeli warplanes on Sept. 6 for signs of secret nuclear activity
Yedioth 'Syrian site photos examined' Diplomatic sources say UN experts scrutinizing satellite photos of site attacked by Israel in September; no conclusive results yet. Earlier, Washington Post reported Syria eliminating evidence at site of attack
Why is Syria taking so many strategic and political risks?
Was Israel behind the July explosion at the Syrian military base outside Aleppo?
ArmsControlWonk Syrian "Copy" of Yongbyon? [1]
Turkish-Syrian ties get a fillip Gulf News
Syrians Disassembling Ruins at Site Bombed by Israel, Officials Say
Exclusive: Cheney hand seen in leaked Syria stories
NYT Iraq President Assails Syria’s Support for Turkish Cross-Border Threat
Syria Denies Assad Backing for Turkish Action in Iraq

Washington Institute The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in Lebanon
Report: Lebanon Druze head to ask Barak to help topple Assad
Hizbullah: US could turn Lebanon into 2nd Iraq
Pentagon: U.S. to build 'strategic partnership' with Lebanese army According to blueprint of alleged treaty, U.S. would provide Lebanon with equipment, build bases in county
Hezbollah slams U.S. call for 'partnership' with Lebanon army
Don’t Sell Out Lebanon’s Hopes By Amir TaheriRobert Fisk: Secret armies pose sinister new threat to Lebanon
Babacan stresses dialogue as key to solving Lebanese crisis
Daily Star There's a better - and cheaper - way that Washington can help Lebanon

BULLETIN No. 206

Report: Syria confirms target of IAF attack was nuclear facility Army Radio: Syrian UN delegate told disarmament panel that September 6 raid targeted nuclear plant
DEBKAfile: US sources dwarf peril of Syrian nuclear target bombed by Israel last month. They aim to clear way for resumed Washington-Syrian dialogue
Syria: We never said nuclear facility was target of IAF strike
Rights group hits at Syrian repression Human Rights Watch accuses the country’s security forces of routinely harassing activists and calls on authorities to stop repressing human rights organisations

Lebanon's Government By Murder - David Schenker, Los Angeles Times
ANALYSIS: Hezbollah chief sets his sights on 'the big deal' One may conclude that Nasrallah has received a solid Israeli commitment that prisoners will be released
Oren Nasrallah's victory If, like in the case of revolutions, wars should be judged only after time has past, then the prisoner exchange deal in the works between Israel and Hezbollah suggests that Nasrallah won the Second Lebanon War.
Iran Deeply Involved in 2006 Lebanon-Israel War (MEMRI)
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah says major exchange deal with Israel is in the works
Israeli-Hizbullah swap sparks speculation about further exchanges
DEBKAfile reports: Tehran is choreographing all swap deals with Israel after Nasrallah’s authority wanes in Hizballah

Political Dynamics Shifted During 2006 Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Israel cannot be destroyed' Former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy believes Iran was the big loser in Second Lebanon war
How Israel Thinks Forward
Former Mossad chief downplays Iranian threat
Palestinians pessimistic on peace talks As a series of high-profile international visitors, including Condoleezza Rice and Tony Blair, traipse through the Holy Land, Palestinians are looking on with a mixture of indifference and despair

Before We Bomb Iran by Jonathan Alter
Asia Times Caspian summit a triumph for Tehran This week's summit of the Caspian littoral states in Tehran has opened up new breathing space for Iranian diplomacy from the Caspian to the Arab world and brought Iran to the verge of a new strategic relationship with Russia. Simultaneously, the US's coercive diplomacy in the region has been frustrated. Washington will be particularly incensed by Moscow's siding with Tehran on its nuclear program. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Christian Science Monitor Russia, Iran harden against West
NYT Putin Is Said to Offer Idea on Standoff Over Iran
Washington Post Divisions in Europe May Thwart U.S. Objectives on Iran
By Robin Wright

IHT The U.S. has run out of tricks By RAMI G. KHOURI
Most people in the Mideast no longer fear America's power

BULLETIN No. 205

Syria's Role in the Region: Media, Peacemaker or AggressorTCF A 30-page US paper examining Syria's role in the Middle East
PINR "Israel's Strike on Syria Reduces Chances for Peace Deal" October 11 2007 Full text of report
News Analysis: Pre-emptive Caution: The Case of Syria
New York Times An Israeli Strike on Syria Kindles Debate in the U.S. At issue is whether intelligence presented by Israel showing nuclear ties between Syria and North Korea was conclusive enough to justify military action
Slate Understanding the Israeli Attack on Syria We now know a little about what happened, but it'll be a long time before we know what it means. Shmuel Rosner
New York Times Analysts Find Israel Struck a Nuclear Project Inside Syria A site attacked last month by Israel was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, according to Israeli and American intelligence
Israel's strike against Syria...and Iran. Josh Muravchik, LAT
Israel Silent on Reports of Bombing Within Syria
Israeli air strike was aimed at Syrian reactor · Nuclear plant in early stages of construction · Concern in US over pre-emptive assault
Middle East Times Commentary: Changing course with Syria
Israel strike 'targeted Syrian reactor'
Israel's mysterious air strike in the Syrian desert last month was aimed as destroying a partially-constructed nuclear reactor, according to reports in the US.
DEBKAfile Exclusive: The US plans new military presence in Lebanon including big air installation close by Syrian border
Scowcroft, Brzezinski, Hamilton, Kassebaum Baker, Hills & Others Call for Syria and Hamas to Be Engaged in Israel-Palestine Effort
WTR: Cheney, Rice, debating the attack on Syria
Analysis: Iran, Syria in gas dealUnited Press International
Ha’aretz - Report: Several North Korean scientists hurt in IAF strike in Syria
Turkey wants Syria to play role for peace

Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, International Crisis Group
Daily Star If Hizbullah and Israel can make a deal, why can't Lebanon's Christians?
NYT Book Faults Israeli Air War in Lebanon - Steven Erlanger Divining Victory: Airpower in the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah War by William M. Arkin, to be published this month, concludes that by bombing too many targets of questionable importance for its aims, and not explaining why it bombed what it did, Israel lost the war for public opinion

BULLETIN No. 204

Why Syria's Air Defenses Failed to Detect Israelis - David A. Fulghum (Aviation Week)
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Three groups of experts - Russian, Iranian and Syrian – still at sea over why Syria’s two early warning stations failed to protect its skies or identify Israeli air force raiders on Sept. 6.
Sunday Times RIce opposed Israel's Syria strike
Report: US Hesitance Delayed IAF Syria Strike
Syria's Strategic Weapons ProgramsThe September 6 Israeli airstrike against Syrian weapons facilities raises broader questions about the status of Syria's strategic weapons programs, which would likely play a crucial role in any future confrontation with Israel.
ABC News says U.S. asked Israel to postpone strike on Syria
Syria paper urges return of Golan 'by any means'
'Syria Won't Hesitate to Start a War With Israel to Regain Golan'
Syria Is Said to Be Strengthening Ties to Opponents of Iraq’s Government
Analysts Warn Syria Risks Wrath of al-Qaeda With Ties to Iraq's Ex-Ba'athists
Ha’aretz Turkey FM, in J'lem: Israel must explain IAF strike Turkey's Ali Babacan tells Peres in Jerusalem visit he wants explanation of September air strike on Syria
Turkey assures Syria on Israeli strike
JTA Turkey's foreign minister visited Israel to diffuse regional tension over last month's air strike against Syria.
JTW News - Syria recognizes Turkish Cyprus State passports as traveling documents

As Lebanon Goes . . . : The Case for Fixing Beirut First Jackson Diehl, Lebanon has long been described as a theater where the larger tensions and conflicts of the Middle East are played out in miniature, and in the past three years its drama has seemed particularly representative.
The Nasrallah roadmap
Nicholas Noe Instead of trying to wipe out Hizbullah militarily, we should be exploring more peaceful solutions for Lebanon.
Hizbullah Regains Strength in Lebanon –
Lebanon: Fatah Al-Islam Reportedly Tried to Ally With Future Movement - Paper
Nasrallah blames Israel for killings in Lebanon
Christian Split in Lebanon Raises Specter of Civil War
Syria Plans Disruption In Lebanon, Hariri Says
Nasrallah: Invade Palestine Hizbullah leader says 'occupation of Palestine' is one of the Arab nation's greatest tragedies, laments lack of Arab support for Palestinian intifada, blames Israel for assassinations of Lebanese anti-Syrian politicians

Political, Military, and Economic Dynamics in Iraq: A Graphic Overview Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies Full Document (PDF; 3.2 MB)

Washington Post 'A Way Out' for Iran By David Ignatius The United States must avoid a situation in which its only options are to accept a nuclear Iran or go to war.
Bush’s gift of victory to Iran’s hardmen With its every move in Iraq, the US strengthens Iran's hardmen

BULLETIN No. 203

Daily Star Syria might sell a lot to make peace with Israel By Volker Perthes
Syria's leadership / Who's in charge?
Middle east Times Commentary: Why no one really wants a Syria regime changeClaude Salhani
US 'must break Iran and Syria regimes' America should seize every opportunity - including war - to force regime change in Syria and Iran, a former senior White House advisor has urged.
New York Times MEMO FROM DAMASCUS; Syria, Seeking Investors, Turns Cautiously to Iran
BBCThe Assad version Syrian leader adds a few pieces to the Mid-East jigsaw puzzle
Corner Syria at the Annapolis Conference By: Michael Young The Daily StarBashar Assad, never a man to accept conditions, is nevertheless imposing some of his own on the United States. In an interview with the BBC earlier this week, the Syrian president said he would only attend a conference on Middle East peace scheduled for November in Annapolis, Maryland, if the issue of the Golan Heights were discussed.
Arab - Speak Arabic The Baath slogan "Syria as the focus of Arabism" has been painted by Assad with Muslim colors. Will this bolster his weakened legitimacy? Time will tell.
Yedioth 'Israel blinded Syria's radar' After IAF strike on Syria confirmed, question remains – how did non-stealth jets evade detection? US aerospace pros tell Aviation Week that Israel used new US-developed technology that can invade and manipulate enemy sensors
‘Israel operation failed’
Syrian parliament member: IAF raid on Syria failed, Israel must change policy, talk peace
Jews come first Vast majority of Israelis wants democratic Israel with Jewish priorities, Uri Ariel says
Syria Agrees With Iran on Gas Import Through Turkey
Syria Preparing for Guerrilla War on Israeli Soil
Michael Young Talks Sense about Syria
CRS "Syria: U.S. Relations and Bilateral Issues," updated September 19, 2007.
Syria Sets Conditions for Role in Peace Talks
BBC Assad sets conference conditions Syria's leader says he will not attend a US-sponsored peace conference unless his concerns are addressed.
Syria still weighs retaliation for Israeli raid Officials in Damascus say that another strike would be met with a Hizbullah-style counterattack.
Report: Iran worried over Syrian air defense failure in IAF strike Aviation Week reports IAF used electronic device to jam radars during strike on Syrian target last month
Ha’aretz Yossi Melman: "Records on North Korean ship docked in Syria were altered."
Israeli airstrike hit military site, Syria confirms Syria's president claims the target hit by an Israeli airstrike last month was a military building under construction.
IDF lifts censorship restrictions on air strike in Syria
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel lifts military censorship on Sept. 6 Israeli air force attack Tuesday, 24 hours after Assad’s partial admission
Israel says it bombed Syria, but why remains a mystery
Report: Israeli Jets Foiled Russian Radar in Syria - Uzi Mahnaimi
BBC Israel admits air strike on Syria Israel confirms for the first time that it carried out a strike on a Syrian military site almost a month ago.
Report: Russia sent technicians to Syria
Syrian FM accuses 'US sources' of fabricating news about target of mysterious Israeli attack
Officials in Syrian site deny IAF attack Arab research center says it's astonished by the "lies and fabrications," invites press to visit.
Officials in Syrian site deny IAF attack Arab research center says it's astonished by the "lies and fabrications," invites press to visit.
Syria denies report of military activity at Dir al-Zur farm Syria says site allegedly hit by IAF used for agricultural research only, denies September raid took place
Al Awsat The Syrian Tragedy and the Lebanese Comedy : Hussein Shobokshi
“How to Bring Liberty to Syria,” by Ford Prefect
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Iranian delegation visits Ankara with a warning and bid for information on Israeli air force’s Sept. 6 attack in Syria
Syria calls refugee burden overwhelming (By John Zarocostas)
'Iraq Will Not Be Base to Attack Iran or Syria'

Daily Star In Lebanon, 2007 looks like 1974: Do you know where your sons are?
A Father’s Shadow Clouds His Son’s Rise in Lebanon
Hizbullah's spiritual leader slams vote to label Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terror organization
Lebanon A Middle Eastern microcosm

Washington Post Federalism, Not Partition Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Leslie H. Gelb The reality of the choice we face in Iraq: a managed transition to federalism or actual partition through civil war.
Al Awsat Who Wants to Carve-Up Iraq and Why : Amir Taheri
Financial Times Iran ready to work with US and stabilise Iraq Iran is ready to help the US stabilise Iraq if Washington were to present a timetable for withdrawing its troops from the country, Tehran’s top security official has told the Financial Times
Hersh on CNN: Bush will hit Iran, saying they are protecting US troops in Iraq
New York Times U.S. Tries to Allay Anger Over Iraq Partition Plan

Sanctions Won't Stop Tehran By: Selig S. Harrison The Washington Post Suppose that the Bush administration abandons its campaign for economic sanctions, tones down talk of war and opens direct negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program. Suppose also that it drops its insistence on the suspension of uranium enrichment as a precondition for dialogue.
New Yorker Shifting Targets The Administration’s plan for Iran. by Seymour M. Hersh
Los Angeles Times Deal with Iran aims to stem arms flow to militia Gen. Petraeus says Tehran's pledge to Iraq may have led to dip in attacks associated with Shiite militants.

BULLETIN No. 202

Washington Times Defiance in Damascus (By Nir Boms)
A TINY, disputed parcel of land called Shebaa Farms, located where Israel, Syria, and Lebanon converge, has long been used as a pretext for armed confrontation. But Israel may now have a chance to remove this sliver of real estate as a source of conflict. This is an opportunity that should not be missed.
Why Did Israel Attack Syria? By Jonathan Cook
Syria Joins the Axis of Evil By JOHN R. BOLTON
Newsweek: Whispers of War: A secret raid, nuclear ambitions and the next crisis: how far will Israel go to keep Iran from getting the bomb? By Dan Ephron and Mark Hosenball.
JUDGING ISRAEL'S ALLEGED STRIKE IN SYRIA By Gershom Gorenberg
What is Being Concocted for Syria?
BUSH SHOULD ENGAGE WITH SYRIA, By Mitchell Reis
Syria Comment Syria Unlikely to go to Attend Peace Conference
Forward Congress Throws Covert Israeli Attack on Syria Out Into the Open
IAF dispatches jets in response to Syrian helicopter activity
'We'll help Syria in war'
Senior Hizbullah, PFLP members vow to stand by Damascus if Israel launches an offensive
Syrian Foreign Minister denies meeting Israeli counterpart

The Economist Lebanon Who's for president?
Lebanon stalemate Political deadlock recalls country's violent polling history
France and the Syrian Responses
Randa Takieddine - Is it acceptable for Lebanon’s MPs to live in hiding because they are exposed to assassination? Will the diplomacy of murder continue to challenge the free world which wants Lebanon independent and sovereign despite all the pressure and advice?
Danger still stalks the Hariri tribunalChibli Mallat Friday, September 28, 2007
Unless the new president of Lebanon is fully committed to the mixed Lebanese-international tribunal to punish those involved in the assassination of the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, creation of the tribunal will be further delayed, if not effectively stopped. The experience of United Nations-established tribunals, all five of them, underlines a simple fact:

Washington Institute Rice's Obstacles on the Road to an Israeli-Palestinian Breakthrough - David Makovsky
Israel's limited options in Gaza
BBC Israeli strike hits 'rocket crew'
An Israeli air strike in Gaza kills two Palestinian militants, bringing the death toll in the territory to at least 11.

New light cast on Bush’s Iraq plans A leaked transcript of talks between President George W. Bush and José Maria Aznar, former Spanish prime minister, has cast fresh light on the diplomatic wrangling that preceded the Iraq war
Reidar Visser The US Senate Votes to Partition Iraq. Softly

Take Tehran next Al-Ahram Weekly
The Wrong Way to Pressure Iran Karim Sadjadpour Labeling Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization would be a serious mistake

BULLETIN No. 201

A Diplomatic Road to Damascus: The Benefits of U.S. Engagement with Syria Independent Institute
What Israel Really Gained by Bombing Syria
By Dennis Ross
Sometimes in international relations it is good to preserve mystery. The irony is that often when an action has been taken but not admitted, everyone seems to know anyway. That certainly seems to be...
Syria's Strategic Weapons Programs Michael Eisenstadt
The September 6 Israeli airstrike against Syrian weapons facilities raises broader questions about the status of Syria's strategic weapons programs, which would likely play a crucial role in any future confrontation with Israel.
Losing Traction against Syria The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus.
Did N. Korea Give Syria Nuclear Aid? By: Donald Kirk The Christian Science MonitorThe US faces a dilemma going into the next round of six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons: how firmly to press North Korea for details of proliferation of its nuclear technology to foreign clients. Ahead of the Thursday meeting in Beijing, the issue has assumed critical importance with revelations of an Israeli raid early this month on a Syrian base where North Koreans were suspected of imparting not only know-how but also materiel needed for Syria to develop nuclear warheads.
The Islamic Brotherhood Had Always Been Banned in Syria under Hafez El AssadA Reconciliation in Damascus? By Samir Al-Taqi US Intel: Israeli Air Strike on Syria Did Not Hit Nuclear Facility
Arabs Want Syria to Take Part in Peace Talks but in "Separate Room" - Paper
"Syrian Nuclear Science Bibliography: Open Literature Citations," September 2007
Israel, Syria and the Glaring SecretStratfor By George Friedman
Syria willing to transfer disputed Shaba Farms to UN custody
Nuclear Ring May Have Aided SyriaBy Douglas Frantz, LA Times Staff Writer

Asia Times All power to the weak in Lebanon If the first round of Lebanon's presidential elections - postponed on Tuesday - is anything to go by, the country is in for a long haul in finding a replacement for Emile Lahoud. Powerful factions backed by powerful countries, notably Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United States, have strong likes and dislikes. A weak, malleable compromise choice looks the only way out. - Sami Moubayed
A majority that refuses to act like one Michael Young The two-month period to elect a new president has begun, and not surprisingly it started with a deal. On Tuesday, Parliament was called into session to find a successor to Emile Lahoud. Instead, the speaker, Nabih Berri, bought an extra month to haggle over a consensus candidate. That may be what many Lebanese want, but the result will not be stability.
Berri, Hariri lead new push toward consensus
US House votes to 'strongly back' Siniora Cabinet
Time Will Hizballah Attack UN Troops?
The Assassination of Antoine Ghanem and the Decisive Moment
Walid Shoucair - The assassination of Ghanem aims at preventing a change in a key Lebanese post. It is reminiscent of that of martyred Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005. His murder was similarly aimed at preventing a shift in another key political institution.
U.S. Fears Hizbullah Attacks in Lebanon Middle East Newsline

Jerusalem Post Nine Palestinians reported dead as Gaza violence intensifies
BBC 'Eight die' in Israeli Gaza raids
At least eight Palestinians are killed in two separate Israeli raids in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian officials say.
The Rise of Islamists in the Near East: The EU, the US and Hamas (PDF; 228 KB)Source: Center for Security Studies
'Israel struck nuclear or missile site'Bolton says he "definitely hears" that N. Korea was involved with target of alleged IAF action.Israel and the Palestinians: Domestic Developments and Prospects for Talks
Washington Post Senate Endorses Plan to Divide Iraq: Action Shows Rare Bipartisan Consensus
U.S. Needs ‘Long-Term Presence’ in Iraq, Gates Says
Los Angeles Times Senate endorses policy to create a Balkans-style Iraq
Foreign Policy Seven Questions: Is the Surge Working in Iraq?
A Separate Peace By Leon HadarIraq will move forward when America leaves it behind.
Open Fire By Paul W. SchroederAmericans still don’t understand that the Iraq War didn’t go wrong. The war was wrong.
Asia Times The Iraq oil grab that went awry US officials have consistently dismissed the notion that the Iraq war was all about oil as too simple-minded for serious debate. Now former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has waded in, writing that "the Iraq war is largely about oil". The dreams of black gold have spawned a story of greed, mismanagement and incompetence of spectacular proportions. - Dilip Hiro

How to Build U.S.-Iran Relations By: Abbas Maleki and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi The Boston GlobeThe ongoing saga between Iran and the United States, more than a quarter of a century old, has all the marking of a potentially serious, even catastrophic, chapter in international relations.
Wall Street Journal Bush and Iran Tehran has been told it will pay a price for killing Americans, but it never has
UPI Analysis: EU to support Iran sanctions? The United States and France are pushing for EU sanctions against Iran if those fail to be agreed upon at the United Nations, but it remains unclear how many other powers in Europe would support such a plan.
Who's Afraid of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? By: Jesse Walker Reason When Ahmadinejad spoke at Columbia University yesterday, he did not emerge with the "propaganda victory" that neocon pundit Bill Kristol assured us he would receive.
The World Can Live With a Nuclear Iran Martin van Creveld
Heritage Foundation Iran: Time for Sanctions of the Willing
New York Times Washington Sees an Opportunity on Iran
Senate Urges Bush to Declare Iran Guard a Terrorist Group