Monday, September 10, 2007

BULLETIN No. 200

Syria: Israel sent 'calming' message before flyover EU reportedly sent message from PM on intention to reduce troops in Golan; Syria: We'll file complaint with UN.
Analysis: Syria fumes as the rest of the Arab world stays silent Damascus frustrated key Arab countries haven't denounced Israel for allegedly violating Syrian airspace
The Daily Star Israel's policy of provocation only increases the threat of war The precise details of what happened over northeastern Syria in the early hours of Thursday morning may never be known, but the incident served
Syrian Paper Says Several Response Options to Israeli Overflight
Akiva Eldar: On Syria: Victory can't take place of accord Before being drawn into a war, all means to prevent it must be sought. And in any case, no military operation - not even a victory - can take the place of a political settlement.
Turkey furious with Israelis at border forayTurkey yesterday summoned the Israeli envoy to Ankara to protest at the discovery of two fuel tanks apparently dropped from fleeing fighter jets during a skirmish with Syrian air defences near its...
Yedioth Government must decide now on IDF priorities in next war with Syria
Jerusalem Post Analysis: The miscalculation we'd been dreading? By YAAKOV KATZ
Analysis / Silent treatment
ANALYSIS: Despite IAF incident, Israel less worried about Syria After months of tension, Assad now seen unlikely to start war over reported IAF violation of Syrian airspace.
DEBKAfile Exclusive: The Israeli jets said to have penetrated Syrian airspace Wednesday night escaped by jamming Russian-made Pantsyr-S1 air defense missiles Advanced Russian Air Defense Missile Cannot Protect Syrian and Iranian Skies
DEBKAfile Reports: Alert declared in Israeli Air and Air Defense Forces after Syria claimed Israeli jets penetrated its air space
Anatomy of Syrian-Israeli Tensions: A Background Analysis - Jerusalem Center Strategic Affairs Unit
Israeli jets entered Syrian airspace 'in error'...
Yedioth The Syrians Don't Know What They Saw - Ron Ben-Yishai
SyriaComment “OSyria 1″?
Is Israel Looking for Korean Weapons in Syria?
Israel Penetrates Syrian Airspace: Shots Fired
Jerusalem Post Analysis: The miscalculation we'd been dreading? By YAAKOV KATZIf the Syrian report is true, what were IAF jets doing over Latakia?
Tension rises after Syria opens fire on Israeli planes Syria said it had opened fire on Israeli aircraft after they crossed into Syrian airspace, and 'dropped ammunition'.
Israel Is Officially Silent on Syrian Report It Entered Airspace
Israel mum on any IAF entry into Syria airspace Syria 'seriously considering' its response, calls reported incident flagrant aggression by the enemy.
Yedioth Ahronoth 'IDF planes didn't attack' Syrian minister admits it's unclear whether Israeli planes did anything more than intervene in Syrian airspace; nonethless, another minister warns that Syria is 'seriously considering' a response to Israeli 'aggression'
Damascus' diplomatic ammunition Syria will attempt to make propaganda profit, but it is unlikely to turn alleged infiltration of aircraft into 'casus belli'
Jerusalem Post Israel 'prepared' for conflict after Syria alleges IAF flyover Assad's deputy: We don't want to be drawn into war; IDF brushes aside Syrian claims, tells northerners there's "no cause for concern."
Is Israel Looking for Korean Weapons in Syria?
Syria-Israel Bombing Incident Shrouded in Mystery
Analysis: The miscalculation we'd been dreading? By YAAKOV KATZIf the Syrian report is true, what were IAF jets doing over Latakia?
DEBKAfile Reports: Alert declared in Israeli Air and Air Defense Forces after Syria claimed Israeli jets penetrated its air space
Syria says it was targeted by Israeli aircraft Damascus said it fired on an Israeli warplane early Thursday morning after it dropped 'munitions' in northwest Syria.
Daily Telegraph Syria accuses Israel of entering territory Syria has claimed that it has fired on Israeli warplanes which had violated its airspace. Air defences engaged the Israeli jets, forcing them to drop munitions over the desert.
Iran Official Stresses Ties After Israeli Attack on Syria

Lebanon: The Civil war Has Begun By: Ben Judah and Jonathan Tabet ISN Security WatchLebanon is a divided country, one bitterly at odds over the future of the state. The government, led by the Sunni Muslim Hariri Bloc and its Christian allies, espouse a Riviera vision for the country: One where a weak and independent central state at peace with its neighbors and open to the West returns to what the country was before the civil war.
U.S. Priorities Threaten EU Work in Lebanon By: Mai Yamani The Daily StarIt is now almost one year since the European Union committed to stabilize Lebanon. With its decision to send thousands of soldiers to implement a U.N. Security Council Resolution, the EU took its boldest step yet in creating a common foreign and security policy.
Lebanon calls on Syria to reduce arms smuggling across border Israel repeatedly accused Iran, Syria of supplying Hezbollah with weapons across Syria-Lebanon border.
Women of Hezbollah: Growing Discontent May Fracture Loyalties By: Tina Wolfe World Politics ReviewUncertainty about Lebanon's political stability in an atmosphere of increasing sectarian division and rumors that Hezbollah is beefing up for an offensive against Israel are testing the allegiances of women loyal to the paramilitary group. Given the influence of women in Hezbollah, their ambivalence has the potential to spread further and ultimately shake the foundation of its political support among Lebanon's Shiites
Lebanon tensions rise as siege endsFears of renewed civil war as opposition parties raise the stakes over election of new president.
Lebanese Kurdish Conditions "Extremely Bad", Leader Tells Iraqi Paper

Washington Post Petraeus Dismayed at Political State of Iraq In preview of report to Congress, U.S. commander in region says more time is needed for Iraqi politics to catch up with improving security conditions
A Letter to the Troops: How We're Doing in Iraq - Gen. David Petraeus (PDF)
New York Times Delay Decision on Major Cuts, Petraeus Says By MICHAEL R. GORDON
Gen. David H. Petraeus’s recommendations will likely lead to an earlier-than-expected start to troop reductions in Iraq, while deferring decisions on a wider withdrawal.
New Yorker Planning for Defeat How should we withdraw from Iraq? by George Packer
Washington Post Among Top Officials, 'Surge' Has Sparked Dissent, Infighting Bush's management of troop buildup has moved beyond battlefields and into clashes with his own administration, Congress and the Iraqi leadership
Washington Post The Bottom-Up Partition By Jackson Diehl, The benchmark-centered reports on Iraq agree: The "surge" has failed to achieve its most fundamental objective, which is to catalyze a political reconciliation among Iraqis. Buried in the data, however, is plenty of evidence that Iraq is slowly moving toward a new political order.
The Iraq Report's Other Voice Ambassador's Appraisal May Carry a More Lasting Weight
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN What’s Missing in Baghdad Iraq teaches us that democracy is possible only when people want both pillars of it — liberty and self-government — and build both themselves.
New York Times Hints of Progress, and Questions, in Iraq Data By MICHAEL R. GORDON
Military statistics show that U.S. forces have made some headway at protecting the Iraqi population, but there are questions over whether the gains can be sustained.
CAP Key Questions on Iraq
The only solution that will work By Gideon Biger Apparently in the context of a full agreement between the State of Israel and the Palestinian state there will be no escaping a similar agreement, in which territories populated by Jews will be transferred from the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority to Israel, and at the same time territories populated by Arabs from Israel will be transferred to the sovereignty of the Palestinian state.
An option that doesn't really exist By Shaul Arieli Prof. Gideon Biger is once again suggesting the transfer of areas populated today by Israeli Arabs to a Palestinian state in exchange for the transfer of some Jewish settlements in the West Bank to Israel. When we examine the details of this proposal from a practical point of view and from the perspective of both international and Israeli law, it is revealed to be an impractical and dangerous idea.
Let the settlers stay where they are The answer is simple. The settlers are right. They should stay right where they are. No matter what. Even if there is an eventual peace. Even if the land they live on is part of a Palestinian state.
Washington Post The Partitioning of Iraq By Charles Krauthammer Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres . – Caesar
Petraeus Open to Pullout of 1 Brigade Army general indicates willingness to consider drawdown of 3,500 to 4,500 U.S. troops early next year if recent success on ground continues.
CSIS America’s Last Chance in Iraq by Anthony Cordesman
Time Moment of Truth (Cover Story / Bush's top two men in Iraq are finally about to deliver a verdict on progress there. Here are the questions to ask about it
Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq

Jerusalem Post A strategic assesment of the Middle East former Mossad chief and current ICT chairman Shabtai Shavit

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