Saturday, March 20, 2010

President Abdullah Gül's Oman Visit: Observations from Muscat

As a country located in the chaotic Middle Eastern region, Oman sets a rare example with its stabile structure and neutral policies. Sultan Qaboos defines his country as a “traditional modernization project”, in other words; a rare example of a successful modernization movement, achieved without losing traditional values. While setting an example for modern urbanization, Oman acts responsibly to preserve its social and traditional values. This policy enables Oman to establish good relations with regional states. In this context, it is remarkable to see how Turkey and Oman share a parallel approach towards regional issues. Actually, the parallel foreign policy approach of the two countries explains why they have been through a convergence process for the last 10 years.

Social Structure


Oman has an interesting social structure. Oman’s territory is nearly half the size of Turkey but its population is only 3, 2 million and near 700 thousand of the population are foreigners. Most of the foreigners are of Asian origin but there are also African, European, Iranian and Turkish communities living in Oman. Those communities play an important role in Oman’s economic life. Number of citizens who were born in Oman can be estimated as 2,5 million. The dominant form of Islam in Oman is the Ibadi movement which is a branch of the Islamic Khariji sect. There are various estimations about the number of Ibadis but their percentage is estimated to be 50-60%. There are also a large number of Sunni Arabs and Shiite groups said to have come from Iran. The Sunnis in Oman belong to different denominations and origins. Most of the Hanfite Arabs -which form the 10-15 % of the society-, are living in the coastal line stretching from Sohar to United Arab Emirates (UAE) border. Those are claimed to have converted from Ibadism to Hanefite during the Abbasside Era. On the other hand, the Arabs living in the Dohar region -which is at the south, near the Yemen border- belong to the Shafite sect and define themselves as Yemeni Arabs. They believe themselves to be the descendants of Belkis, the Queen of Sheba whose name is also mentioned in the Holy Koran. It is hard to speak of a social convergence between the Ibadis and these groups who are strictly attached to their tribal structures. Even the students of the country’s sole state university Sultan Qaboos show no marks of such convergence. Each community has their own separate way of social living. Except for these mentioned groups, there is also a small Shiite community living in the country. Hindus also have a place of their own in the Omani social structure. There are no Christian or Jewish citizens in Oman. While defining the social structure of Oman, we have to consider all of the Arab, Persian, Hindu, Belujian and African groups. Ibadi, Hanefite, Shafite and Shiite denominations of Islam as well as Hinduism are the main religious fractions.

Capital Muscat’s population is around 700 thousand. Although the city is located on the coastal line; its mountainous structure prevents the formation of a mono-centric city structure. The city is divided in different districts. The port district –where the covered bazaar is located- stands as the historical center of the city. The neighborhoods at the airport district which lie 25 km east to the center are incorporated in the Capital city during Sultan Qaboos’s reign. Various communities coexist in peace in Muscat which is the most diverse city of the country. During the pre-1960 era, the commercial life in Muscat was dominated by Persian and Belujian families. Those were replaced by powerful Arabic tribes when oil was discovered. After all, Belujian families have great influence within the Ministry of Finance which proves that they still play an important role in business activities and keep their commercial power.

In our interview with the Mayor of Muscat he stated that Muscat has become a modern city in the last 30 years, thanks to the initiatives of Sultan Qaboos. He stated that the urbanization process of Muscat was planned diligently and no one was allowed to construct their houses without permission and planning. According to the Omani law, people cannot own lands or buildings. Everything belongs to the Sultan and people live in houses and lands, granted to them. Authorities emphasize that the related law has never been applied and the Sultan was never seen to ask someone to return the granted estates.

Although many different communities exist together in the country, Sultan Qaboos’s wise policies have maintained a stable structure. Oman, having nothing until 40 years ago, is now a state of prosperity and stability. During his visit to Muscat, President Abdullah Gül praised the process which started in 1970 and is called the Oman Renaissance. Gül stated that the country made a great leap forward in a short period of time.

A Welfare State based upon Oil and Natural Gas Revenues


Although Oman’s natural resources are less than the resources of other Gulf States, 75% of the country’s national revenue comes from oil and natural gas products. Reports indicate that Oman’s oil and natural gas reserves will suffice only for another 20 years. In order to confirm this data, we met with Deputy Minister of Finance Dervish Ali Belujiah in Muscat. He stated that they conduct researches about reserves but results vary due to the use of improving techniques. According to Belujiah, the estimations of 20 years ago indicated that oil and natural gas reserves in Oman would deplete in 20 years but this forecasting went wrong and the reserves show increase in parallel to new research techniques. Here we have to mention that oil exploitation operations in Oman have a higher cost than those in the other Gulf States and multi-national companies prefer to carry on activities in countries with less exploitation costs. Therefore, these companies are expected to steer for Oman -with the help of the improving techniques- when reserves in other countries will deplete. After all, the minister states that they perform forecasting by presuming that the reserves will deplete within 20 years and are trying to diversify economic resources. To this end, they focus on tourism, fishery and industrial fields. As a part of its strategic plans for the coming 20 years, Oman plans to reduce its oil income revenue share from 75% to 10%.

Turkey-Oman Relations: The Omani Perspective


From Oman’s point of view, the improvement of relations with Turkey is a part of Sultan Qaboos’s regional policy perspective and his “good relations with all regional states” vision. By taking the regional facts into consideration, Sultan Qaboos tried to establish a border security net to protect internal security. He also enforced policies based on the “achieving development while protecting traditionalism” approach. Oman is a member of the GCO which is a regional defense and economy cooperation organization. The border issues experienced between Oman and Yemen before Sultan Qaboos’s reign has been settled. Oman does not embrace clear-cut policies towards regional issues (except for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) and chooses to remain neutral towards the internal issues of other states. The Shiite-Sunni polarization which surfaced after the Iraq War and is spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of the issues Oman remained completely neutral. Oman doesn’t take a side in this polarization as the majority of its community neither consists of Shiites nor Sunnis but Ibadis which is another Islamic sect. Besides, real policies demand Oman to remain neutral. With its population of 2,5 million, Oman is located between the two regional powers; Saudi Arabia and Iran. Therefore, neutralism appears to be the wisest policy for Oman to pursue. The authorities we spoke in Oman said that they have good relations with both regional powers. They added that the issues between Arabs and Iranians need to be settled. The authorities have strongly emphasized that Oman doesn’t take sides in the Iranian nuclear crisis.

In that sense, Turkey bears great importance for Oman. Just like Oman, Turkey stands for the peaceful settlement of regional issues and wants the polarization to end. Sultan Qaboos confirms this argument by saying that “the mutual relations between Oman and Turkey are important as both countries pursue similar policies”. But unlike Oman, Turkey has the political and economic power to play an active role in this process. According to the Omani authorities, Turkey is the only state in the Middle Eastern region that has the capability and vision to provide a bridge between the Arab World and Iran. Oman supports Turkey’s UNSC membership and Expo 2015 candidacy. Oman’s role in Turkey’s strategic cooperation with the GCO is also extremely important. Oman made great efforts to hold the recent meeting of the organization in Istanbul. Similar approaches and mutual supports provided a solid base for strong Turkish-Omani relations. Economic relations are the most important aspect of the improving mutual relations which reached a peak with President Gül’s recent visit to Muscat.

The establishment of the joint committee to develop economic and commercial relations between Turkey and Oman in 2004 has paved the way for President Abdullah Gül’s recent visit to Muscat. Turkish companies’ activities in Oman since 2000 led to the establishment of the joint committee. The committee was established as a part of the “Developing Business, Economy and Technical & Scientific Cooperation Agreement” in 2004. The agreement aimed to the development of mutual relations in the fields of business, construction, consultancy services, transport, tourism, culture, archives, agriculture and fishery. As a result, mutual economic relations developed rapidly in the era between 2001 when Turkish companies initiated their activities in Oman and 2004 when the joint committee was established. Turkish companies undertook important construction and infrastructure projects in Oman since then.

Currently there are 20 active Turkish companies in Oman with a total project value of 4 billion Dollars. During President Gül’s visit, Turkish companies were awarded with 2 more project tenders with a total value of 1,5 billion Dollars. This amount is planned to increase up to 8 billion Dollars in the near future. Turkish companies are mainly involved in construction and infrastructure projects including airport, highway, sea port, free zone, shopping center and pipeline constructions. Approximately 100 businessmen have accompanied President Gül during his visit to Muscat. Most of the businessmen reported to have made significant steps towards new business opportunities with their Omani counterparts. Two Turkish companies signed agreements to undertake the construction of a wind power plant and an industrial facility with the worth of 600 million Dollars. Several Turkish and Omani companies agreed to conduct feasibility studies in various fields. President Gül’s visit enabled Turkish companies to participate in billion Dollar projects.

In conclusion, President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Muscat was the sign of mutual decisiveness to further develop the cooperation trend which started in 2001. When considering the parallel policies of the two countries and the agreements that were signed during the visit, we can assume that the Turkey-Oman relations will grow much stronger in the near future.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

BULLETIN No.243

Reuters Turkey Sees Positive Signs For Israel - Syria Talks "Syria wants Turkey's mediation. Israel sometimes gives positive signals on it. The situation will be evaluated," Erdogan was quoted as saying. A senior official in Netanyahu's bureau also said no decision had been taken on whether to renew talks with Syria under Turkish mediation. The official went on to cautiously welcome Erdogan's reported comments, saying: "If the words reflect Turkey's wish to strengthen its ties with Israel and to contribute to forwarding peace, this, of course, is a welcome aspiration."
AP Turkey says Syria-Israel talks may restart
No decision made on Turkish role in Syria talks, says Israel
Israel, Syria Announce Nuclear Energy Ambitions
The Multitudinous Disasters Of The Obama Administration. Here: On Syria And Iran by Marty Peretz
Obama Talks, Syria Mocks - Elliott Abrams, Weekly Standard
Asharq Al-Awsat Talk to Syrian FM Walid al-Muallem
Israel, Turkey: A Thaw in Talks With Syria A recent improvement in Israel-Turkish relations is attributable to Turkey's role as mediator in Israeli-Syrian relations.
Turkey determined to mediate in Israeli-Syrian dispute
Turkish FM, Syrian president discuss Mideast peace
Turkey determined to resume Israeli-Syrian talks, says FM
Turkish Foreign Minister in Syria for talks with President Al-Assad
Turkish, Syrian cabinets to meet on Latakia-Mersin ferry


Hezbollah's Penance: The Shiite Militia Works to Rebuild Its Tarnished Image
BY: David Schenker The Weekly Standard
The problems of the Party of God, Hezbollah's English translation, started in May 2008, when the militia violated its cardinal rule and turned its weapons -- allegedly intended for use against Israel -- on Lebanese citizens, when the organization invaded Beirut.
LAT Lebanon, at peace, braces for war By Doyle McManus A growing economy; political stability. But most Lebanese fear it won't last.
Hariri the son, and premier The truly unique circumstances which led Prime Minister Saad Hariri to enter politics have meant that his political life has been characterized by two different roles. As the son of slain former Premier Rafik Hariri, Saad Hariri has campaigned diligently and passionately in support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in its search for his father's killers. As a prime minister


Israeli-Arab Negotiations: Background, Conflicts, and U.S. Policy (PDF; 582 KB)Source: Congressional Research Service (via OpenCRS)
Netanyahu to Biden: We didn't seek to embarrass you over East Jerusalem construction Israel's plan to build 1,600 new homes in East Jerusalem has created tensions with the U.S.
Yedioth Ahronoth
UN: J'lem settlements illegal Israeli approval of plan to build 1,600 housing units in east Jerusalem neighborhood 'undermines any movement towards viable peace process,' Ban says. Kadima: This is new level of political
Biden condemns Israel over homes plan Israel approves plan for 1,600 new homes in East Jerusalem, hours after US vice-president pledged support for government
How not to advance Arab-Israeli peace By DAVID HARRIS
A new intifada is inevitableBy ZIAD KHALIL ABU ZAYYAD
As Biden Visits, Israel Unveils Plan for New Settlements The plan to build 1,600 new homes in Jerusalem is likely to complicate relations with the U.S. as Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. tours the region.
Yedioth Ahronoth Will Biden bridge gaps? Palestinians feel US willingness to pressure Israel is limited. Six of Netanyahu's seven senior ministers believe current Pa leadership is incapable of meeting demands. American VP set to try to overcome mistrust between sides
Israel to allow Ban into Gaza
Editorial / U.S. is proving it wants Mideast peace - now it's Israel's turn Israel is not entitled to simply shrug its shoulders at the revival of the peace process
PLO approves indirect peace talks with Israel Arab League approved idea last week, giving Abbas backing for negotiations under U.S. mediation
Secret Israeli report: U.S. cozying up to Palestinians U.S. not serious about upcoming Israel-PA negotiations, according to internal Foreign Min. Document
Israel Intends to Build Civilian Nuclear Plants
Indirect talks bring Israel, Palestinians back to square one Zvi Bar'el, 19 years after Madrid and 17 years after Oslo, we find ourselves back at the starting point
PA source: Israel told us to fight violence or we will Israel threatens PA with reduced cooperation and more W. Bank arrests if protests not quelled
Biden arrives in Israel amid signs of peace process renewal U.S. VP to address Israeli public on peace process, Iran nuclear program and U.S.-Israel relations
MESS Report / PA holds olive branch in one hand, stone in the other Discussing a final-status agreement while allowing a mini-intifada to unfold gives the PA leverage
Gideon Levy / There has never been an Israeli peace camp The problem is rooted in the left's impossible adherence to Zionism in its historical, defunct sense.
Avraham Burg / Once justice dwelled in Jerusalem, now settlers do Netanyahu and Barkat are corrupting the nation's soul, turning our eternal capital into a harlot.
Biden's assurances to Jerusalem
EU foreign policy chief hopes Israel will grant her rare permission to enter Gaza
Jerusalem Post What’s brewing between the US and Israel?When Israel has to make its decision on Iran, it will likely be best to refrain from asking for permission.
‘Hamas losing control over Strip’Senior operative in Gaza reportedly sends letter to Masha’al warning of security anarchy in Strip
PM meets Mitchell as PLO okays talks
Palestinians to give US mediation a chance; Netanyahu, US envoy have "good discussion."
Analysis: Not all VP visits are significant, but this one isWashington wants to ensure that Israel and the US remain on the same page regarding how to deal with Iran.
Recycled: Joe Biden, the erratic pragmatistBy SHMUEL ROSNER
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Israel faces tough decisions' Ahead of VP Biden's visit, Defense Minister Barak says Israeli leadership 'must make certain we do not miss another opportunity for peace.' Senior official says indirect talks with PA 'will allow us to focus on real threat – Iran'
As Biden heads to Israel, plan for proximity talks advances
Go to Gaza, Mr Mitchell – then break the blockade
James Zogby: Proximity talks between the Palestinians and Israelis will do little to halt the hopeless spiral.
Did the Arabs Give Him a “Cover” or Expose Him? : Tariq Alhomayed
Hopeful or hopeless?
Under American pressure, Abbas has agreed to indirect talks with Israel, with some Arab support and without preconditions, writes Dina Ezzat
Interview: Tzipi Livni Israel’s leading opposition politician says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to “face reality” and work toward a two-state solution with the Palestinians -- before it’s too late.
Biden leads latest U.S. push to revive Mideast peace talks Although they'll end a 14-month hiatus in negotiations, there's skepticism about the talks because this is the first time in 16 years that Israeli and Palestinian leaders won't talk to one another directly
Myth of Palestine's Economic Development - Sam Bahour, Japan Times
The perils of a new intifadaGulfNews
Palestinians back new peace talks Palestinian leaders back a new round of indirect peace talks with Israel, more than a year after they last broke down.


Juan Cole Secular National Iraqi List of Allawi reported to have surged in Sunni Arab Provinces; Implications for Iran, US.
US General: 'Months' Before Iraq Government
Dispute over candidate disqualifications could mar Iraqi vote's legitimacy A controversy over the disqualification of candidates threatened Tuesday to undermine the legitimacy of Iraq's recent elections and inflame supporters of a coalition seeking to topple the alliance led by the prime minister.
Iraqi Officials to Begin Releasing Vote Tallies on Wednesday The partial results of parliamentary elections will provide an incomplete picture of the vote that will nevertheless provide the broad outlines of the country’s political landscape.
Now what happens?
The post-election process in Iraq will be difficult, and potentially even impossible. (By Razzaq al-Saied, Boston Globe)
Center for American ProgressIraqis Take Back Their Country: Iraq’s 2010 Elections as U.S. Policy Transitions
Heritage Foundation Charting U.S. Policy After Iraq's Elections
New York Times THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
It’s Up to Iraqis Now. Good Luck. The elections were a good step forward, but now Iraq must prove that it wants a more democratic future.
Christian Science Monitor Ahead of Iraq election results news reports say Sunni, Kurd turnout strong While preliminary Iraq election results aren't due out until Wednesday, turnout in Sunni provinces was as high as 75 percent, say news reports. Many Sunnis boycotted the last election.
Kurds set to be Iraq election kingmakers
Kurdish alliance set to play prominent role in coalition government despite Gorran group breaking away
National Interest Kurdistan Election Decided by Joost R. Hiltermann Kurdish voters presented a united front for Baghdad. But internal divisions are rife—and the region might soon devolve into political turmoil.
Beyond Iraq's Election Day Success - Council on Foreign Relations
Debka Iraqi PM Maliki sweeps polls, defeats pro-Iranian bloc
Guardian Iraq after the elections: Slogging towards stability
Editorial: Two significant differences separate Iraq's parliamentary election from the first postwar poll in 2005
Editorial Iraqis VoteThe new Iraqi government must do a far better job than the current one of ensuring that the Sunnis and all minorities have a fuller voice in the country’s future.
Candidates Speculate on Results of Iraq Vote The government reported a 62 percent turnout rate, as the American military commander in Iraq praised the Iraqi military for its handling of the election.
Iraq poll hailed as key to US pull-out The general election in Iraq is a “milestone” towards the complete withdrawal of American troops, the senior US commander in the country said
Iraqi officials put voter turnout at 62 percent
Kurds led all groups; Sunni participation greater than expected
Christian Science Monitor After Iraq election, fragile democracy faces the real test Sunday's Iraq election saw good turnout despite scattered violence. But with no party powerful enough to rule alone, the tough task of coalition building begins for the nascent democracy.
Likely Scenarios for Iraq's Elections BY: Kirk Sowell World Politics Review
There are several possible scenarios for coalitions that might emerge from the election's outcome, but only two are reasonably likely, and both would result in a government that looks a lot like the present one.
CRS Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks A 20-page US report surveying the political scene in Iraq
Guardian Iraqi election rivals claim success after lower turnout Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi talk up performance in Iraqi election that drew smaller but broader vote than in 2005
Newsweek Oil, Iraq's Greatest Asset, Could Doom Its Future
McClatchy Iraqis vote despite explosions, but now comes the hard part Iraqis braved a wave of bombings to vote in landmark elections, but no candidate is likely to win an outright majority, which means that it will take months of horse-trading for politicians to form a new government
Sunnis Go to Polls, This Time, to Retain a Voice
By ANTHONY SHADID Sunni Arabs largely sat out Iraqi national elections in 2005, but the need to protect their interests brought them out in droves on Sunday.
After Iraq's election, the real fight By Meghan O'Sullivan
Iraq: Prospects for the Future of a Democratic Iraq
A Look at the Major Coalitions in Iraq's Election
Christian Science Monitor Iraq election: Purple fingers, but hard work ahead Despite attacks, triumphant moments unfolded across the country as Iraqis dipped their fingers in purple ink and cast ballots in the Iraq election. Results and voter turnout are not expected for at least another day.


Iran, Democracy, and Trade Keys to Successful Clinton Visit to Latin America
The Iranian Regime: What You Need to Know
Ten Steps to a Free Iran
'US indirectly supports trade with Iran'NY Times: Federal contract payments, grants, benefits amount to $107 billion.
Facing new sanctions, Iran admits oil shortages Senior Iranian oil official: Increased gasoline rationing imposed last year didn't reduce domestic demand


The Century FoundationRussia’s Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict in the Middle East D Trenin
Is There a Mideast Solution? by William Pfaff