BULLETIN No. 228

SETA - Turkish-Syrian Relations: The Erdoğan Legacy Sami MOUBAYED
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Assad is the next Sadat' At Foreign Ministry conference on policy in 2009, signs of change in 'the very fundamentals' of how diplomatic brass sees Syrian president. Citing stagnated talks with PA, officials say Damascus deal may precede Ramallah one
Russia Shields Syria - Ariel Cohen
The Real World: The Russian Navy Back in the Med By: Ariel Cohen The Middle East TimesThe Russian Federation is redeploying a part of the Black Sea Fleet to its Cold War hunting grounds in the Mediterranean. Returning to bases and anchorages in Syria and Libya is a top priority for the Russian admirals.
Saudis Uneasy Over Rehabilitation of Syria's Assad
Syrian envoy: Onus for peace on Israel Ambassador to US calls Hizbullah "a very close ally" of Syria; claims Israel "demonizes" his country
Turkey: Syria-Israel talks should resume
Rafsanjani says Israel lacks ‘goodwill’ in talks with Syria
Talabani: Iraq needs better Syrian ties
Syrian Opposition Leader Flees Lebanon
Syrian, Romanian Presidents Steps to Consolidate Ties

NYT Lebanon’s Bloody Sunday By RANDY GADDO Had we stood our ground 25 years ago instead of pulling out after the bombing in Beirut, it is possible that 9/11 would not have happened.
From Beirut to 9/11 By ROBERT C. McFARLANE After the Lebanon bombing, the most telling conclusion was the one reached by Middle Eastern terrorists, that the U.S. had neither the will nor the means to respond to a terrorist attack.
Hezbollah: On the War path or seeking political domination of Lebanon? Defense Update
Has Nasrallah Been Poisoned?
Report: Hezbollah chief poisoned; Iranian doctors saved his life
Security services draw up list of possible targets of Hezbollah attacks List prepared in light of Hezbollah vow to avenge Mughniyeh assassination; some officials receive protection
Iranian official: Tehran proud of its support for Hezbollah, Hamas Larijani rejects claims Iran backs terrorism, also says Obama seems more 'rational' than McCain
Al Awsat Lebanon and the Saudi Position : Muhammad Diyab
Saudis resurrect a rival for HezbollahSaudi Arabia, amid its efforts to undermine Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, is reportedly funding a rival Shi'ite wing of the group led by Sheikh Subhi Tufayli, a Hezbollah founder who has been little seen since the 1990s. But Saudi money may just be lining Tufayli's pockets and his resurrection is little threat to the power and popularity of Nasrallah. - Sami Moubayed
Lebanese City's Strife Reflects 2 Conflicts Tripoli Rocked by Internal Rifts and Mideast Proxy War

Israel mulling non-aggression treaty with Lebanon
Hamas in control
Cleaner, safer streets, cease-fire boost Haniyeh; outlook for peace bleak
Iran proposal: Preemptive strike against Israeli targets Khamenei adviser: Israeli rhetoric on Iran strike strengthens position of pro-preemptive attack officials.
Iran's threats are not based on any proven capability Iran's declarations appear to be an attempt to create a balance of fear and deterrence with Israel
Israel expects U.S.-Iran talks if Obama elected
Israel must adapt to reality of U.S.-Iran dialogue Post-U.S. election, Israel will be expected to toe the line
Barak: Israel giving serious thought to Saudi peace plan
Israel considers reviving Saudi peace plan to resolve conflict
2002 plan offered the Jewish nation an end to its conflict with the Arab world, says Israel's defence minister
Saudi official presents new Israeli-Palestinian peace plan
Egypt presents Fatah, Hamas with Palestinian unity proposalCairo paper calls on Abbas to continue peace talks with Israel, but says any deal needs Hamas approval
Examining Israel's efforts toward building a new government Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni has received a two-week deadline extension for forming a ruling coalition. Here are answers to some key questions on how the process might play out
Israel's Livni Needs More Time to Form Government
Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel

US-Iraq SOFA latest draft, in English
A Critical Stage in Iraq By David Ignatius, 'Everybody is afraid of everybody. They're afraid of the past, present and future.'
Iraq's cabinet rejects current draft of U.S. troop accord Shiite Muslim government ministers raised objections Tuesday to a "final draft" of an agreement to authorize U.S. troops to remain in Iraq, and after a four-and-a-half-hour cabinet meeting Iraq's government spokesman said the agreement won't be finalized in its current form. What happens next is unclear.
Details of Iraq's Status of Forces Agreement
Daily Star Will Iraq finally end the colonial era?By Rami G. Khouri
Helena Cobban US Iraq policy beyond November 4
Iraq sends draft of U.S. security pact to Cabinet Shiite officials say they still want revisions to the language of the document, which requires U.S. forces to leave Iraq by the end of 2011 unless they are asked to stay on
US-Iraqi security pact still unsettled Amid growing opposition, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called on Sunday for more time to negotiate a plan that could begin US troop withdrawals in June 2009.
New Doubts Cloud Iraqi Security Pact With U.S.
CRS The Kurds in Post-Saddam Iraq
Al hayat What Matters is for the Agreement to be Iraqi
Documents Say Iran Aids Militias From Iraq
Iraq faction seeks 2011 US exit The Iraq parliament’s biggest political grouping is calling for the US mission to be brought to a definite close by the end of 2011 as a condition for approving a deal
USIP Iraqi Recommendations to the Incoming Administration
Panel I: Institution-building in Iraq1:40:07 - 18.2MB Panel II: Political Progress 1:42:04 - 18.6MB

ROGER COHEN Iran Is Job One
Iran’s leadership would pay a high price for a handshake with America. As the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution looms, it’s time to rethink U.S. strategy toward Iran.
Stopping A Nuclear Tehran By Daniel R. Coats and Charles S. Robb, It likely will be the first and most pressing national security issue facing the next president
Asia Times Elusive consensus on Iran Neo-conservative groups in the United States are using the presidential transition period to strengthen perceptions of an Iranian nuclear threat and stymie any plans for the next administration to change policy on Tehran. At the same time, the revived international efforts on Iran have exposed a widening split over how to deal with its nuclear program. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009
Washington Post Washington Post Stopping A Nuclear Tehran By Daniel R. Coats and Charles S. Robb, It likely will be the first and most pressing national security issue facing the next president
EurasiaNet Iran: Ahmadinejad Making Political Gambit to Enhance his Authority in Tehran BY KAMAL NAZER YASIN Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is risking his political future by striving to decouple his neo-conservative faction from long-standing domestic allies -- traditionalist clergy and small-scale merchants. If successful, Ahmadinejad would gain a greater degree of freedom of action in both the domestic and international arenas.
Al hayat Will Obama Save us from War with Iran?
Der Spiegel Berlin Plans to Deter Trade with Iran

Towards a Middle East Stalemate? by Eric Trager
Oct 22 SD# 2091 - Arab Columnists: The Economic Crisis – A Conspiracy by U.S. Government, American Jews