BULLETIN No.142

Guardian Israel attacks Beirut airport
Daily Telegraph Israel strikes Lebanon Beirut's airport was hit as the Israeli government made clear that it holds Lebanon responsible for the abduction of two Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon invasion loomsReservists have been called up for an Israeli assault on Lebanon after Hizbollah gunmen kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others.
UPI Analysis: Iran, Syria use Lebanese militia
UPI Analysis: Israeli troops return to Lebanon
Stop Iran Now - Jerusalem Post
Ha’aretz – Editorial: 'No' to Lebanon War II
Israel's monstrous legacy brings tumult a step closer David Hirst: Overnight Lebanon has been plunged into a role it endured for 25 years - that of a hapless arena for other people's wars.
Washington Post The Future of Hezbollah Attacks Could Erode Faction's Support Pressure Building Against Shiite Militia By Anthony Shadid
Syria Comment Syria and Hizbullah on the Attack
Editorial The Mideast Erupts Israel is entitled to retaliate. And then what?
Los Angeles Times Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone The Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran and Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers this week.
Behind the Crisis, A Push Toward War By David Ignatius, In the Lebanon crisis we have a terrifying glimpse of the future: Iran and its radical allies are pushing toward war. We should not play their game.
Necessary Steps for Israel Confronting State Sponsors of Terror Is the Only Option
By Michael Oren, By eliminating the terrorist leaderships in Gaza and southern Lebanon and deterring Syria and Iran from prodding their proxies to war, Israel can restore a reasonable level of security to its citizens.
PostGlobal: Crisis in the Middle East
Why They Fight By Charles Krauthammer, In 1948, Israel acquired life. The fighting raging now is about whether that life should and will continue to exist.
Financial Times Leader A new Middle East disaster in the making It is hard to underestimate the dangers of the present escalation in hostilities in the Middle East
World powers split over strikes The world's big powers were at odds over Israel's strikes on Lebanon
COMMENT: Only adeal with Hamas can bring peace to Israel What the PLO refuses to contemplate - a temporary settlement - is something Hamas would probably be ready to consider, writes Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Israeli foreign minister.
New Republic Attacked by the Editors Hamas's real casualty is wishful thinking. There are crises that complicate and crises that clarify. The crisis along Israel's southern and northern frontiers is of the latter sort.
National Review MICHAEL LEDEEN: It’s war, and it now runs from Gaza into Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. “The Same War”
The Nation Civilians Under Attack Marwan Bishara writes that Israel's use of military force in Gaza, and now Lebanon, to intimidate a civilian population for political ends--to pressure the Palestinian Authority or undermine the Hamas government--is the very definition of state terrorism.
New York Times Israel’s Invasion, Syria’s War By MICHAEL YOUNG America and its Security Council partners may be able to use the crisis in Lebanon to further their security goals in the Middle East, and to help Lebanon climb out of its political morass.
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN The Kidnapping of Democracy What we are seeing in Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon is an effort by Islamist parties to use elections to pursue their long-term aim of Islamizing the Arab-Muslim world.
Al Hayat Hezbollah and Deterring Israel Abdel Wahab Badrakhan - Israel could have handled the crisis in Gaza more rationally, but the arrogance of power blinded it. It will undoubtedly be heading toward another disastrous adventure if it tries to respond to Hezbollah's new challenges. The US, the EU, Russia and the UN went too far in ignoring Israeli crimes and violations, turning a blind eye to the assassinations, the destruction of homes and humiliation of the Palestinian people and the violation of their rights.
Weekly Standard Israel's Enemy is America's The bloody history of Hezbollah. by Dan Darling
Getting Serious About SyriaIt's time to stop sending mixed messages to the Assad regime.by Jeffrey Azarva
New York Times Israel’s Invasion, Syria’s War By MICHAEL YOUNG America and its Security Council partners may be able to use the crisis in Lebanon to further their security goals in the Middle East, and to help Lebanon climb out of its political morass.
Israel Blockades Lebanon; Wide Strikes by Hezbollah
News Analysis: Voices of Peace Muffled by Rising Mideast Strife
The Overview: Israel Blockades Lebanon; Wide Strikes by Hezbollah
News Analysis: Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians
Schiff Israel must take care not to open a third front with Syria
ANALYSIS: Nasrallah replaces Meshal
Daily Telegraph Israeli crisis is an Iranian smoke screen Con Coughlin asks if there is a better way for the Teheran ayatollahs to divert attention from their nuclear-enrichment programme than by provoking a fresh Middle East crisis between Israel and its neighbours?
Washington Institute Hizballah Opens a Second FrontMichael Eisenstadt describes Israel’s strategic options now that Hizballah has joined the fight on a new, northern front and brought Syria and Iran closer to open hostilities.
Forward Bush Backs Israel's Right To Defend Itself, But Stresses Need To Protect Lebanese Democracy
New Republic Attacked by the Editors Hamas's real casualty is wishful thinking. There are crises that complicate and crises that clarify. The crisis along Israel's southern and northern frontiers is of the latter sort.
The Risks of Israel's Two-Front War - Scott MacLeod, Time
MEMRI Jul 14 SD# 1205 - Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's Borders (2): Reaction in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria
WSJ States of Terror Syria, Iran and their proxies wage war on Israel
CFR Israel and the Doctrine of Proportionality
Ha’aretz ANALYSIS: Helpless Lebanese pay the price for their weakness Syria can claim that without it, there is no Lebanese government that can bring order and quiet to Lebanon
East of Beirut Faisal al Yafai A needless fight followed by an overreaction. Is Damascus next?
UPI Analysis: Changing game rules in Lebanon?
Daily Star Perilous crisis presents rare opportunity for Lebanon
Nasrallah has dismissed international law By Chibli Mallat
Leader The state of Lebanon The incomplete achievement of Lebanese sovereignty, symbolised by the extension of the pro-Syrian president's term till next year, is a major cause of instability in the Middle East.
Israel's next war has begun And neither Hamas nor Hezbollah is the ultimate target. by Yossi Klein Halevi
Editorial Halt the slide to warLast year's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, after 38 years, has solved nothing. The Hamas government should exercise its responsibility and stop rockets being fired into Israel, having previously halted the suicide bombings that claimed so many innocent lives inside Israel. But Israel should accept that it needs a Palestinian partner, however unpalatable it may be.
Can military strength bring about a diplomatic solution?
The end of the Third Way The unilateral Third Way is the understanding that the demographic clock is ticking, that the Jewish state is under an existential threat, and that occupation has no future.
Israel holds Lebanon government responsible for Hezbollah attack
Jerusalem Post War and peaceHizbullah and Hamas must be dealt direct, heavy blows from which they will not quickly recover.
US: Syria, Iran responsible for attack
Israel attacks Beirut airport; Israeli town hit...
Hezbollah Fires Rockets at N. Israel
Hezbollah: Prisoner Will Be Returned Through Talks, Not Violence
Israel's Next War Has Begun - Yossi Klein Halevi, The New Republic
Washington Times Tensions in Lebanon test U.S. diplomacy
Christian Science Monitor A second front opens in Israel's conflict Hizbullah militants captured two Israeli soldiers Wednesday in an attack Israel has called an 'act of war.'
How Israel was pulled back into the peril of Lebanon
Los Angeles Times The Nation of Hezbollah The militants' raid is a sign that it sees itself as an independent force in Lebanon and beyond
Israel prepares for two-pronged conflict
Hizbollah's boldattack raises stakes in Middle East conflict
News Analysis: Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians
MEMRI Jul 13 SD# 1204 - Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's Borders
Forward Israel Blames Attacks on Syria-Iran Axis By MARC PERELMAN
Independent American policy in Middle East caught in 'a perfect storm'
Washington Post Hezbollah Raid Opens a Second Front for Israel Lebanese Shiite fighters seize two Israeli soldiers; Olmert calls attack "an act of war." Beirut airport is closed after Israeli warplanes strike runways.
Israel, Lebanon: Crisis Time
Stratfor
Hezbollah supporters watch from the wings The moment Hezbollah gunmen crossed into Israel on a mission to capture Israeli soldiers, the region was plunged into its most serious crisis in years
Israel bombs Beirut Israel’s heaviest air campaign against Lebanon since the 1982 invasion targeted the airport and Hezbollah TV station
Editorial Time out in the fighting Israel cannot and should not come to terms with a blatant violation of its sovereignty, along either the Lebanese or the Gaza borders.
Schiff No to the previous status quo The aim of the operations Israel is conducting is not only to free the captives or to punish, but also to prevent future kidnappings and bombardments.
Invitation for escalation It is worth noting not only the targets the IAF is attacking, but also those that it is not.
Syria: avoiding a possible third front Israel faces the danger of a third front if Syria steps in to assist the Lebanese guerilla group Hezbollah .
Rice urges Israel to 'exercise restraint' in Lebanon campaign
Bush asks Israel not to disrupt Beirut (Joseph Curl)
Jerusalem Post Analysis: Israel at war
Saudi Arabia criticizes Hizbullah
Yedioth Ahronoth A war Israel must win
Iran warns Israel not to attack Syria
Peretz: We’ll break Hizbullah
Hizbullah stronghold bombed
Israel's Lone Defender: The US

PINR "Tension Returns Between Jordan and Hamas" Full text of report
Overextended U.S. Weighs Its Options in the Mideast
Washington Post U.S. Options in Mideast Limited Bush administration faces three growing crises in the region, with few choices to defuse tensions Robin Wright
Washington Post On Iran, Giving Futility Its Chance By Robert Kagan Let's imagine, and this is purely hypothetical, that President Bush has already decided that he will not leave office in January 2009 without a satisfactory resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem.
Key Powers Give Iran Ultimatum on Its Nuclear Program

BULLETIN No.141

BBC Hezbollah seizes Israel soldiers
Hezbollah militants capture two Israeli soldiers as heavy clashes break out over the Israel-Lebanon border.
Capture marks new escalation
In pictures: Cross-border clashes
What is Hezbollah?
Washington Post Hezbollah Captures 2 Israeli Soldiers
The militant Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers along the Israel-Lebanon border Wednesday morning, and Israeli officials said seven more soldiers were killed during military operations in response to the attack.
Asia Times Syria's one true friend - Iran For example, Syria's military involvement in the Lebanese Civil War in 1976 concerned many Syrians, especially since Damascus was siding with the country's
Washington Times Brotherhood intensifies anti-Assad efforts Syria's largest and most influential op- position group, the Muslim Brotherhood, has begun an am-bitious program to unite Syrian pro
Reuters Syria: Civil Society Activists Barred From Traveling Those most recently denied the right to leave Syria include: Dr. Radwan Ziadeh, director of the Damascus Centre for Human Rights Studies; Suheir Atassi
New Anatolian Bryza praises Davutoglu for Syria contacts US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matt Bryza stated yesterday that Washington is grateful for the contacts in Syria of Ahmet ...

Time Viewpoint Tony Karon Israel Is Bogged Down in Gaza. Where is the U.S.? The Bush Administration appears unable to play Washington's traditional crisis-management role in the Middle East. That may be because it doesn't talk to Israel's enemies
Jerusalem Post Report: Abbas threatens to resign Says he might dismantle Palestinian Authority and leave Territories.
Jerusalem Post Turkish envoy reportedly meets Mashaal
Jerusalem Post Mubarak: Israel was close to releasing prisoners In an interview with the state-run newspaper El-Messa, Mubarak spoke of a missed opportunity to resolve the confrontation that developed between Israel and the
Israel Expands Offensive, Moving Into Central Gaza
Once Again, Gazans Are Displaced by Israeli Occupiers
Ha’aretz – IDF: Hamas' Mohammed Deif wounded in IAF strike Six killed, including mother and three children
U.S. rejects revised draft of UN resolution on Israeli offensive
Better hypocrisy than Hamas If Hamas demonstrates that it is possible to hitch a ride on the back of the democratic process ... its accomplishment will undermine the United States? chances of succeeding in its moves to found democracy in the region.
Tikkun Was the Invasion of Iraq a Jewish Conspiracy? By Greg Palast
Jerusalem Post Report: Abbas threatens to resign Says he might dismantle Palestinian Authority and leave Territories.
OpenDemocracy Palestine: clan or nation? Palestinians' tribal politics render Israeli strategy null, says Jim Lederman
Washington Times A ninth Arab-Israeli war? It looks increasingly doubtful that the events in Gaza will somehow be contained and that it will end up being little more than the latest skirmish in the longrunning dispute between Israel and the Palestinians.
H.D.S. Greenway: Missed opportunities in Gaza, again The cycle of violence between Israel and the Palestinians has not been broken, and the two peoples seem helpless to end it.
IHT Gaza: A Never-Never battle By JERROLD KESSEL AND PIERRE KLOCHENDLER Events on the Gaza-Israel front are not deterring Olmert from his commitment to the principle of disengagement.
Gaza: Living with fear and resolve By MONA EL-FARRA Until the world pressures Israel to recognize the rights of Gazans in their land, and to pursue a peace that brings freedom and security to Israelis and Palestinians, we both will continue to pay the price.

International Crisis Group - Iraq’s Muqtada Al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser? full report
Sectarian Fights Pose Risk to Iraq America's top envoy in Baghdad warns that a "precipitous" U.S. withdrawal may ensure a war drawing in neighboring states.
Christian Science Monitor Baghdad fragmented by cycle of revenge Sectarian murders this week are testing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's promise to stabilize the Iraqi capital.

Iran's Waiting Game By David Ignatius

Fundamentalists at Heart Of Four Middle East Conflicts New York Sun By Youssef Ibrahim

BULLETIN No.140

Washington Institute Syria, Hamas, and the Gaza Crisis
MEMRI Jul 11 IA# 286 - Wave of Arrests of Syrian Intellectuals Following the Beirut-Damascus Declaration
Syria Comment
Asad Interview in al-Hayat 29/06/06
Al-Qa'ida and the Hariri bombing – many interesting questions remain (by t_desco)
Syria Today
State releases Islamists from prison Read...
Travel ban on pro-democracy activists
Syria holds Israel responsible for Gaza military escalation
Syrian vice president meets Kurdish intellectuals
ChamPress
Abbas orders envoys to Syria over Gaza crisis
Moallem and Rafsanjani in Talks
Kuwait 3rd largest investor in Syria with USD 541 million
Syria and Libya to Boost Economic Relations

Washington Post Aggression Under False Pretenses By Ismail Haniyeh, The current Gaza invasion is an effort to destroy the results of fair and free elections. We Palestinians were yet again besieged by our occupiers.
Ha’aretz – ANALYSIS: Arm-wrestling within Hamas on talks with Israel Khaled Meshal's call for a prisoner swap is meant to assert his role as Hamas' sole political architect
Ha’aretz – ANALYSIS: Arm-wrestling within Hamas on talks with Israel Khaled Meshal's call for a prisoner swap is meant to assert his role as Hamas' sole political architect
Criticism of West Bank pullout growing in Kadima
The experiment was a success Israel isn't on North Korea's target list, but Kim Jong-Il's behavior could set an example for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian leaders.
Yedioth Ahronoth 'War with Israel over'
Daily Star Turning Abbas into a missed opportunity By Anna Mahjar-Barducci
In vowing to defend Israel, Bush added nothing new By Jalil Roshandel
Alain Gresh of Le Monde Diplomatique writes of Israeli war crimes
Israel Rejects Hamas Terms for Exchange of Prisoners
IHT Israel and Iran: The bonds that tie Persians and Jews STANLEY A. WEISS Animosity between Iran and Israel is an historical aberration.

Iraq's neighbors statement
New York Times Send in the Advisers By ANDREW F. KREPINEVICH It is clear that success or failure in Iraq lies in the hands of the American officers and sergeants embedded as combat advisers in the new Iraqi security forces.
United States Institute of Peace: Who Are Iraq's New Leaders? What Do They Want?
Jerusalem Post Eye of the Storm: Iraqis won't run by Amir Taheri
Iraq says to ask UN to end US immunity
Iraq Qaeda says Iran wants to 'destroy' Sunnis - Web
Iraq Shi'ites See Reasons for Death Squads
PBS Iraqi Violence Escalates as Government Calls for Unity
General: Security Better in Northern Iraq

Time Up for Iran's Answer on Weapon Viewing Delay as a Test, U.S. Ready To Pressure U.N. to Penalize Tehran
Iran holds the key Dilip Hiro Only the active involvement of Iraq's neighbour can now stop the country from toppling over into civil war.

Hamas İçin Yeni Demokrasi Sınavı

Hamas’ın Filistin’de demokratik seçimler sonucu iktidara gelmesi kendileri açısından önemli bir başarı olsa da, örgütün kendini sorgulamasına neden olan bir süreç başlatmıştır. Daha önce yönetimde olmamanın verdiği “sorumsuzlukla” rahat hareket eden Hamas, varlık nedenini oluşturan söylem ve eylemlerinde değişim baskısı altındadır. İsrail’in varlığını temelden reddeden ve şiddet eylemlerini meşru mücadele aracı olarak gören örgütün artık kendini iktidara taşıyan halka karşı sorumlulukları bulunmaktadır. Hamas iki seçenekli bir ikilem içindedir : “Terör örgütü” olarak kalmak ya da “meşru bir siyasal parti” olmak. Hamas’ın geleceğini, bu iki seçenek arasında vereceği kararlar belirleyecektir. Bu süreçte örgüt “sınavlar vermekte, çeşitli testlere sokulmaktadır”.

Hamas ilk sınavında Tel Aviv’deki intihar saldırılarına “meşru direniş” tepkisi vererek en azından Batı ve İsrail açısından başarısız oldu. İkincisi ise, İsrail’in Gazze’de Filistinli sivillerin de ölümüyle sonuçlanan roket saldırılarıydı. Hamas bu sefer belki de çok akıllı davranarak karşılık vermeme yolunu seçecek gibi görünmektedir. Şimdi Hamas’ı çok daha önemli ve zor bir sınav beklemektedir.

Bu sefer örgüt üzerindeki baskılar içeriden yoğunlaşmaktadır. Filistin’in içinde bulunduğu kriz ortamı çok taraflı bir ulusal diyalog süreci başlattı. İsrail hapishanesinde bulunan El Fetih liderlerinden Mervan Barguti öncülüğünde, Hamas ve İslami Cihat gibi diğer örgüt üyelerinin de hazırlayıp imzaladığı bir belge oluşturuldu. Belge temel olarak “1967 yılında işgal edilen topraklarda Kudüs başkentli Filistin devleti kurulması, Hamas ve İslami Cihat’ın Filistin Kurtuluş Örgütü’ne katılımı, iç çatışmalara son verilerek millî birliğin korunması” gibi konuları içermektedir. Ancak kritik konu İsrail’le müzakerelere başlanmasıdır. Bu, İsrail devletinin tanınması anlamına geliyor ki, bu da Hamas’ı en çok köşeye sıkıştıran konu. Devlet Başkanı Mahmut Abbas belgeyi referanduma götüreceğini açıklamış ve tarih olarak eğer bir erteleme olmazsa 26 Temmuz’u belirlemiştir.

Mahmut Abbas’ın belgeyi referanduma götürmekteki amacı, İsrail’in tanınmasında halkın desteğini kazanmaktır. Referandum, halkın neden Hamas’a oy verdiğinin de bir göstergesi olacak ve bir anlamda örgüt için güven oylamasına dönüşecektir. Yani ideolojik nedenlerden mi, yoksa pragmatik nedenlerden mi Hamas’ın iktidara taşındığı ortaya çıkacaktır. Benim görüşüme göre, Filistin halkı Hamas’ı ideolojik nedenlerden çok, pragmatik nedenlerden seçmiştir. Yani İslamcı bir örgüt olduğu için değil, daha iyi ekonomik ve sosyal imkânlar sağlayacağını düşündükleri için oy vermişlerdir. Halkın beklentisine karşılık ilk aylarda Hamas’ın performansı pek de başarılı değildir. Hamas’ın uluslararası toplumdaki konumu nedeniyle Filistin’e yapılan dış yardımlar kesilmiştir. Filistin ekonomisi büyük ölçüde dışa bağımlıdır ve bir anlamda bu sayede ayakta kalabilmektedir. Yönetim, kriz nedeniyle çalışanların maaşlarını ödeyememekte, hatta zaman zaman yiyecek sıkıntısı dahi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu noktada halkın, bu durumun sorumluluğunu kime yükleyeceği önemlidir. Çünkü konu sadece Batı’nın Hamas yönetimini boykot etmesi ve yardımları kesmesi değildir. Filistinliler, Hamas’ı iktidara geldikten sonra değişime direnmesinden ve krizi tırmandırmasından sorumlu tutabilirler. Bu da Hamas’a verilen desteğin azalmasına ve halkla Hamas’ın karşı karşıya gelmesine neden olabilir. Esasen fon kozu da tam da bu nedenle kullanılıyordu: Hamas’ı içeriden baskı altına alıp değişime zorlamak. Eğer Hamas’ın seçilmesi gerçekten yukarıda ifade edilen nedenlere bağlı ise, beklentileri İsrail’le kriz çıkararak, şiddete başvurarak karşılayamayacaktır. Referandum, halkın bu isteğini ortaya koyacaktır. Dolayısıyla belgeye destek verilmesi daha olası gözükmektedir. Yani halk da Hamas’a değişmesi yönünde bir mesaj verecektir.

Son zamanlarda Filistin’de farklı gruplar arasındaki ayrım, şiddet içeren boyutlara ulaşmıştır. Abbas’ın bir diğer amacı da, belgeye halk desteği sağlayarak farklı grupları tek bir çatı altında toplamak olabilir. Bunlara ek olarak, dile getirilmese de, Hamas’ı iktidardan düşürmek için yeni meclis seçimlerini zorlamak Abbas ve El Fetih’in amaçlarından biri olabilir. Ancak, referandumun gerçekleşmeme olasılığı da bulunmaktadır. Öncelikle Hamas, engellemek için tüm yasal ve siyasal yolları deneyecektir. Yeni bir şiddet dalgası yine referandumu engelleyebilir. Eğer gerçekleşirse, kamuoyu araştırmaları Filistinlilerin yüzde 85’inin referandumda belgenin kabulü yönünde oy vereceğini göstermektedir.

Mahkûmlar belgesinin kabul edilmesinin Hamas’ı büyük bir ikileme sokacağı kesin. Bu ikilem iki açıdan oluşacaktır: Hamas seçimle işbaşına gelmiş bir yönetimdir. Demokratik geleneklere saygı gösterme sorumluluğu altına girmiştir. Dolayısıyla ilk sorunu, referandumdan çıkacak sonuca saygı gösterme konusunda yaşayacaktır. İkincisi ise tam da bu saygı gösterme noktasında ortaya çıkacak ki, o da Hamas’ın kendi ideolojisini ve söylemlerini sorgulaması olacaktır: yani İsrail’in varlığını tanıma. Bu nedenlerle, yapılabilirse referandum sonunda Filistin’de bir iktidar değişikliği yaşanabilir.

Hamas’ın gerçekten köşeye sıkıştığı bu dönemde, Filistin’de iç savaş senaryoları gündemdedir. Referandum öncesinde, ya da çıkacak sonuca göre sonrasında, gerçekten El Fetih ile Hamas arasındaki anlaşmazlıkların çatışmaya dönüşmesi ihtimali bulunmaktadır. İsrail dahil tüm taraflar açısından olumsuz sonuçlar doğuracağı için bu senaryonun gerçekleşme olasılığı düşük görünmektedir. En büyük zararı kuşkusuz Filistin halkı ve mücadelesi görecektir. Dışarıya karşı daha güçlü durmak için birlik gerekirken, tüm enerjilerini içeride harcayacaklardır. Ulusal birliğin sağlanması amacını da taşıyan referandum, ters sonuç yaratmış olacaktır.

Son olarak İsrail açısından bakılırsa, belge içerik olarak fazla bir anlam ifade etmemektedir. İsrail’in gündemi tek taraflı çekilme planıdır ve Başbakan Olmert bu plana destek arayışındadır. Esasen Hamas’ın iktidarı bir anlamda İsrail’in işine gelmektedir. Böylece tek taraflı planını uygulayabilmek için herkese müzakere edebileceği bir Filistin tarafının olmadığını gösterme imkânına kavuşmaktadır. Referandumdan destek çıkması, daha önce belirtildiği gibi, Filistin halkının İsrail’in ortadan kalkmasını istemediğini göstereceği ve bir ihtimal Hamas’ın iktidardan inmesiyle sonuçlanacağı için, İsrail’i zor bir konuma sokabilir. Bu sefer İsrail’in üzerinde, tek taraflı planını uygulamaması yönünde baskı oluşacaktır.

BULLETIN No.139

Rice praises Turkey -- complying with US demands on Syria Cengiz Candar
French sources admits the political profits Syria gained through befriending Iran Paris now knows the internal and foreign difficulties facing Lebanon and wasting achievements done since Al-hariri's assassination and the withdrawal of Syrian forces, French well informed sources said.
Syrian officials: Golan Heights offensive possible Enraged by Israeli aerial flight over presidential palace last week, Syrian officials threaten future provocations will not go unanswered; warn of cells willing to carry out 'liberation war' against Israel
Ahmadinejad: Enemies of Islam oppose expansion of ties between Iran, Syria, Iraq Arab-parast president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the enemies of Islam do not want to witness the expansion of brotherly relations between Iran, Syria and Iraq.
ChamPress
Syria Ready for Relations with Iraq
Abbas orders envoys to Syria over Gaza crisis
Syria Coment
"Democracy in the Arab World" in The Economist
Sami Moubayed
The Winning Flag
A man who loved life, and Lebanon

Israel's Failed-State Strategy by Juan Cole
Jerusalem PostThe Region: Palestinian suicide strategyBy BARRY RUBIN Alienate your friends, lie to yourself, celebrate defeat and taunt the world's only superpower.
Israel Vows to Fight Until Soldier's Release, and Palestinians Mourn Their Dead
Ha’aretz – IDF: Operation in the Gaza Strip to intensify, likely to continue for at least two more months
Hamas leaders: Meshal backs broad-based deal with Israel Talks on prisoner swap pick up as PLO men meet Meshal; Al Hayat: Hamas would accept 130 prisoners freed
Eldar Between cease-fire and flame-fanning Israel has pushed itself into a corner where the only choice remaining is between a unity government with Haniyeh and Abbas, and a Hamas movement led by Meshal-Ahmadinejad
Hamas is here to stay
Jerusalem Post Likud may OK 'demilitarized Palestinian entity'
Debka A Shadow War is also Fought against Hamas by Israeli Undercover Troops in Gaza and West Bank Print
Newsweek Israel: What Would Sharon Have Done? As the crisis builds, Israelis are asking what the legendary general would have done. Can Olmert lead on his own?
New Republic The future of Hamas Will Hamas moderate? The movement's history gives no reason to believe it will. by Benny Morris
Gaza Operation So Far Unsuccessful: Israel DM
Daily Star A swamp - not in Gaza, but in Israel's mindset By Rami G. Khouri
Palestinian Prime Minister Calls for a Truce With Israel and New Talks
Christian Science Monitor
Israel sends mixed messages about Gaza Prime Minister Olmert rejected a cease- fire offer, but some Israeli officials are taking a softer line on talks.
Olmert: 'long war' in Gaza Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert has insisted that a military operation in Gaza to free a captive soldier and end Palestinian rocket attacks could go on indefinitely.
IHT Another round in Gaza After the smoke of the latest battles begins to clear, the best things that the Israelis and Palestinians could do would be to sit down and get back to negotiating.
PostGlobal: How would you mediate the current Israeli-Palestinian crisis?
Viewpont: Seeking a long term solution in Gaza By Alon Ben-Meir
Ha’aretz – IDF advances to within 500 meters of Gaza City
Ha’aretz Eldar Between cease-fire and flame-fanning Israel has pushed itself into a corner where the only choice remaining is between a unity government with Haniyeh and Abbas, and a Hamas movement led by Meshal-Ahmadinejad
Orwellian language expresses an upside-down world As in the Lebanon War, so in the Gaza war, the aims change on a daily basis. That is what happens when the war has no clear political aim in the first place.
BBC Israel expands offensive in Gaza
Israeli troops clash with Palestinian gunmen in a new area of the Gaza Strip, as part of an ongoing incursion
Jerusalem Post Diplomacy: Dressed for action? By HERB KEINON This is the first large-scale military operation in decades to be led by a civilian trio.
Column One: How Olmert justifies failure Olmert's message is clear: Israel's withdrawal from Gaza last summer was a national security disaster.
Interesting Times: Hamasism or unilateralism
Israel ‘might free Palestinians’ in return for soldier
Washington Institute Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash

Gallup: Two-Thirds Want Iraq Pullout
PEW Muslims in Europe: Economic Worries Top Concerns About Religious and Cultural Identity Click here to read the whole report.
Iraqi 'dreams and desires are shrinking' Daily intelligence brief paints grim picture; 'Baghdad looks so exhausted.'
Independent American attacks on Mehdi Army cause uproar among Shia
Washington Post Iraqi Troops Clash With Shiite Militia 'Very Significant Criminal' Captured in Raid; 30-40 Insurgents Dead or Wounded
Few good options in Iraq By Robert Kuttner
The Alleged Destabizling Iranian Role in Iraq
Washington Times Statecraft in Iraq THE END OF IRAQ: HOW AMERICAN INCOMPETENCE CREATED A WAR WITHOUT END By Peter W. Galbraith REVIEWED BY CHRISTOPHER HITCHENS
Daily Star Only Iraqis can keep sectarian violence from ruining their country
NYT Magazine QUESTIONS FOR PETER W. GALBRAITH The Breakup Why Iraq needs to be divided into three states, the fascism of Saddam Hussein and the legacy of his father, the economist John Kenneth Galbraith.

Voices of Iranian Reform, Silenced By Fotini Christia

BULLETIN No.138

Sami Moubayaed Unrelenting stalemate
ANALYSIS-Israeli threats unlikely to detach Syria from Hamas
Syria Untouched by Outside Pressures A few days after Israeli jets buzzed his summer residence, a beaming President Bashar Assad, accompanied by his elegant wife, inaugurated the first phase of restoration on an ancient citadel here.
American UN envoy wants Syria to arrest Mishaal!
Al-khiyami: Syria's stand is steadfast, and her strength lies in her relations with Iran, Hizbullah and HAMAS
Syria, Egypt preaching to us?
Syria Today
Vice-president meets Kurdish leaders for second time Read...
Pro-democracy activist arrested
Assad renews support for Palestinians in Israeli soldier crisis
Syria’s economic plan for the next ten years is a departure from the norm, aiming to implement socialist development schemes alongside free market capital enterprise...Read...
Technology specialist and now Syrian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Sami Khiyami talks to Syria Today about domestic reform and the foreign pressures facing Damascus. Read...
Jerusalem Post Turkish envoy conveys Israeli, US messages to Syria Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent one of his key advisers to Damascus on Thursday to inform the Assad administration that Syria had to increase
Turkey mediates between Syria and America Turkish Prime Minister, Rajab Tayeb Ardogan, said that his advisor, Ahmed David O'glo delivered President Bashar Al-assad messages and received answers that will be given to the American administration.
Gul calls on Syria to help defuse Israeli-Palestinian tensionNew Anatolian - Ankara,TurkeyTurkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul called on Syria Wednesday to help defuse the recent Israeli-Palestinian tension by aiding efforts for the release of a ...
Rice lauds Turkey's diplomatic efforts
Turkey denies envoy's meeting with exiled Hamas leader
The spokesman for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan denied on Thursday that a Turkish envoy sent to Syria to try and help defuse the crisis in Gaza met with the exiled political leader of Hamas, Khalid Mashaal.
ChamPress
Turkish envoy conveys Israeli, US messages to Syria
Hizballah: Learning to Live with Resolution 1559 - Nicholas Blanford and David Schenker
What about kidnapping Palestinians?
The honeymoon is over, and Saad Hariri has to prove he belongs Whenever a politician first takes office, there is a tendency on the part of the public to grant the newcomer a period of collegiality and cooperation. The need for a "honeymoon period" for Lebanon's parliamentary majority leader, Saad Hariri, was all the more necessary, given that he had to struggle to find his footing in such unfamiliar terrain.

Ha’aretz Ze’ev Schiff Cold Turkey Ankara called for the release of the Hamas detainees. In private conversations, the Turks were saying: You behaved just like Hamas - You took hostages.
Gulf News Behind the dust and smoke of Gaza
Olmert is working hard to perfect the plan for further annexation of land.
Israel is intent on not giving Hamas a victory
For many observers, particularly in the western world, the kidnapping of an Israeli solider will not help alleviate the four decades of suffering of occupied Palestinians. Hamas must handle the current crisis wisely so the cost does not outweigh the benefit.
Ha’aretz – A matter of opinion Was the disengagement a success? It depends on who you ask. Moshe Ya'alon says today that the pullout was a terrible error, a failure foreseen, that stemmed from Sharon?s personal and political problems. Yossi Beilin also considers it a big mistake - even though he supported it. Dov Weissglas and Avi Dichter, on the other hand, feel strongly that the withdrawal accomplished its goals and in fact, was the only possible course of action under the circumstances.
Top IDF officials: Gaza raid won't halt rocket fire
Hamas sources confirm report on possible deal on Gilad Shalit
BBC 'Slippery slope' Israeli military warned to keep Gaza exit strategy in mind
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Palestinians in shock' Gaza Division commander tells Ynet, 'Palestinians did not expect such long series of operations'; soldiers dealing with weapons smuggled from 'totally breached' Egypt border, he says. IDF: Over 30 terrorists killed so far
Dore Gold Deterrence against Hamas
Jerusalem Post Paying the price for disengagement Because of the pullout, Hamas rose to power. Moreover, its ideology became widely accepted in Gaza.
FT Hamas under pressure as Israeli forces dig in Israel has resumed its airstrikes in Gaza as Ismail Haniyeh, Palestinian prime minister, called Israel’s actions a ‘crime against humanity’ and appealed for the ‘Israeli killing machine’ to stop.
Timeline: Gaza crisis build-up
In depth - Arab-Israel conflict
Israelis ‘trying to bring down Hamas government’
Dar Al Hayat Israel: 'No' to a Palestinian Partner
Randa Takieddine - What Israel is afraid of is Palestinian national unity, which would allow the Palestinians to have legitimate representation for negotiations accepted by international public opinion. Ehud Olmert is afraid of the emergence of a Palestinian partner who works to a legitimate program. The question is: To what extent is Israel willing to go in its policy of rejecting the creation of a neighboring Palestinian State?
Christian Science Monitor Are Israel's actions in Gaza 'war crimes'? Israel's supporters defend against accusations by UN, Amnesty International.
Hamas call to fight IsraelA Palestinian minister has called on his security forces to take up arms after Israeli tanks re-occupied a tract of northern Gaza, provoking the fiercest clashes since an Israeli soldier was seized 11 days ago.
Israel steps up Gaza offensive
International concern over a looming humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip increased, as Israel ordered its military to intensify operations in the area.
Washington Post Israel Meets Fierce Resistance Gaza operation shows challenges faced by military as it fights guerrilla force in residential areas
UPI Analysis: Health care crisis in Palestine By SARA GORECKIFaced with political and economic turmoil, Palestine's healthcare system is deep in a state of crisis.

Iraqi oil must remain Iraqi-owned Ewa Jasiewicz Workers are uniting against the threats to privatise the country's most important resource.
Der Spiegel Can Nouri al- Maliki Deliver Peace? Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has impressed the Americans with a series of courageous initiatives aimed at reconciling the country's different religious and ethnic groups and bringing peace to the war-torn land. But can he succeed without the necessary troops to back his plans?
Iraq's New Army Uses Creaky
In Ramadi, a Test of Iraqi Forces - W. Zirkle & D. Bellavia, Philly Inquirer

FPIF The Alleged Destabizling Iranian Role in Iraq
Asia Times Slow-motion progress in Iran nuclear talksWhile the North Korean missile crisis has to some extent shifted global attention away from Iran’s nuclear program, some aspects of the labyrinthine negotiations are coming into focus. But don't expect any “clear and substantive response” from Iran, as demanded by the G8 foreign ministers, just yet. The fact is, Tehran does not have one. - Kaveh L Afrasiab

Kuwait and democracy in the Gulf Just a first step

BULLETIN No.137

The United States thanked Turkey for urging Syria to intervene in ... “What Turkey did that was very helpful is to go to Damascus and to say to the Syrians they need to use all of their leverage to help this take place
Arutz Sheva Al-Arabia: Meshal Left Syria An al-Arabia TV reporting quoting “Syrian sources” stated on Wednesday that Hamas politburo head Khaled Meshal left Syria along with other
Damascus Journal: For Ramadan Viewing: A TV Drama Against Extremism

Forward U.S. Seen Backing Israeli Moves To Topple Hamas By Ori Nir The Bush administration appears to have dropped any objections to Israeli efforts to topple the Palestinian Authority's democratically elected Hamas government.
Financial Times COMMENT: A proposal to curb the escalating tension in Gaza If agreement is to be reached, its rough outlines are predictable: Israel wants quiet, and Hamas wants the ability to govern, write Gareth Evans and Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group.
Simon: Crisis Aggravated by Weak Israeli and Palestinian Governments
PostGlobal: Ideas for Solving the Gaza Impasse
Israel steps up Gaza campaign after Hamas strike· Tanks move in to create 'security zone' in north Israeli town hit by rocket for second night running
Guardian Europe's response to the siege of Gaza is shamefulJonathan Steele: The Palestinians have no partner for peace. They will only have one if Israel agrees to recognise Palestine's right to function.
The Israel Enigma - Victor Davis Hanson, RealClearPolitics
Ha’aretz – IDF moves into north Gaza in bid to stop rockets
Benn We need a Nasrallah Nasrallah hates Israel and Zionism no less than do the Hamas leaders, Shalit's kidnappers and the Qassam squads. But as opposed to them − he has authority and responsibility.
The weakness of the American partner In terms of direct influence on the ground, there has been absolute American silence.
Yedioth Ahronoth Palestinians score own-goal
UPI Commentary: The impossible dream By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE
Daily Star Israelis won't be able to feel secure until their neighbors do
Israel is pushing Palestinians toward a third intifada By Mahdi Abdul Hadi
Israel Fears High Price for US Strike on Iran

Christian Science Monitor Pragmatism may trump zeal in Iran Iran could break the taboo on talks, despite decades of anger toward the US.

UPI Analysis: U.S. policy and Islamic renewal