BULLETIN No. 236

WINEP The Obama Administration Reaches Out to Syria: Implications for Israel
Syria-Iran: A Critical Alliance Arutz Sheva
Lebanon Opens Embassy in Syria for First Time
Golan Heights, Shebaa Farms Could Unlock Peace Process for Israel, Syria and Lebanon
BY: Cesar Chelala The Japan Times A compromise between Syria and Lebanon on the territory disputes involving the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms would be an important initial step toward peace.
Syria Says Relations with Iran Will Remain Strong
Syria's Assad Praises Obama, Wants Meeting
Syria's Assad Ready to Mediate with Iran: Report
Mistrust reigns
Diplomatic progress still eludes Syria and the US
Syria's very special court Obama is right to reach out to Damascus, but he should have no illusions about what the Syrian regime is like. (Boston Globe)
No French Deals with Syria at Lebanon's Expense Randa Takieddine - The importance of the visit by Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to France is important for the re-affirmation by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that there will be no deal between France and Syria over the International Tribunal for Lebanon or at the expense of the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon.
MIDEAST: Israel and Syria Step Closer Inter Press Service
Syria opens up, but will economy suffer?
DAMASCUS, Syria, March 16 (UPI) -- The European community can play an independent role in the broader Middle East to help calm regional conflicts, the Syrian president said.
Contradictions in US Openness to Iran and Syria
Syria's Water and Energy Needs
Syria suffers as economy dries up Rapidly declining oil exports and an agricultural sector again hit by drought will contribute to making 2009 a particularly tough year for the country

Report blasts London stance on Hezbollah (UPI) -- London's decision to consider talks with the Lebanese Hezbollah complicates regional efforts at developing a coordinated policy toward Beirut, an analysis said.
Century FoundationRe-Imagining the Lebanon Track: Toward a New U.S. Policy
United States Institute of Peace (USIP) · Reconstructing Gaza – Lessons from Lebanon
Daily Star One obstacle to better relations between Lebanon and Syria has been removed
Lebanese leader: If Syria signs peace deal with Israel, so will we
Lebanon rules out talks with Israel
After visit to France, Suleiman explains regional peace summit is best way to resolve differences.
Analysis: High stakes, high anxiety: Campaigning in Lebanon DAVID SCHENKER
Wall Street Journal Pollock: A Dialogue With Lebanon's Ayatollah
"Engaging the Muslim World": Why Lebanon isn't another Iran By Juan Cole

BULLETIN No. 235

World Agenda: why Syria key to US hopes of unlocking Middle East Times Online
The NATIONAL Time for Syria to come in from the cold Opinion When Damascus hosted the annual summit of the Arab League a year ago, tense relations between Syria and many Arab countries, prominently Saudi Arabia and Egypt, led to barely half of the serving Arab heads of states attending.
Al Hayat Syria and the Restoration of its Role Elias Harfoush - When Barack Obama's administration assigns the man who served as the U.S ambassador in Beirut during the period of Syrian-American antagonism, to re-engage Damascus, does this suggest an American apology, in the manner seen by Syria's allies in Beirut? Or does it reaffirm the fundamentals of American policy in Lebanon, basically centred on UNSC resolutions 1559 and 1701?
Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian summit in Riyadh Wednesday - first Obama ME breakthrough
Syrian Opposition Dying with Dissident - David Schenker, L.A. Times
Saudis Seek Syrian Ties to Thwart Iran
Syria launches stock exchange Trading on the DSE will be indirectly supervised by the government, which is shifting from decades of socialist policies toward a more market-oriented system
Assad Says US Could Mediate Syria-Israel Talks
Bashar al-Assad is having the best week ever
INTERVIEW-Netanyahu aide sceptical of Syria talks prospects
Saudi Summit Will Not Break Iran-Syria Tie: Analysts
Why Syria and Saudi Arabia are talking again It's about Iran, Iraq, and Israel. The two foes planned to meet in Riyadh Wednesday to solidify Arab unity amid regional volatility.
Turkey says willing to continue Syria mediation Ynetnews
Larijani calls for improved Syrian ties
TEHRAN, March 12 (UPI) -- Tehran supports a stronger bilateral relationship with the Syrian government in Damascus, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament said.
U.S. Cannot Ignore Secret Syrian Nuclear Facility - Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Joshua D. Goodman (Jewish Policy Center)
Syria prepares for a Lebanese vacation By Michael Young
Fabulous Beirut at a Crossroads - Melik Kaylan, Forbes
Beirut, day two: The unanswerable question Michael Tomasky: Could US engagement with Syria and Iran help pro-democracy forces in Lebanon?
'Special Relationship' Strained: US Slams UK's Vow to Talk to Hezbollah
Los Angeles Times U.S. disagrees with British decision to engage Lebanon's Hezbollah
The Obama administration doesn't believe there are separate military, political and social wings of the Shiite militia group
Britain’s Contacts With Hezbollah Vex U.S.
U.S., U.K. Divided on Hezbollah Talks Britain's decision to open a direct dialogue with the political arm of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia and political party, has rankled the Obama administration.

Is a right-wing government the answer? By Henry Siegman A good case can be made for the counter-intuitive notion that only a right-wing government of the kind now being formed by Netanyahu holds the remaining hope for viable Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu's vow to Syria: Israel won't provoke war
Hamas: PA persecutes us in W. Bank
Hamas official asks 'Post': "How can we talk about unity when our men are in Abbas's jails?"
'Peace most likely with Syria, not PA'
WSJ Mideast Peace Can Start With Economic Growth By Daniel Doron There are better ways of helping the Palestinians.
Israel Launches New 'Soft War' BY: Mel Frykberg The Middle East Times
Shortly after the guns fell silent over Gaza, during Operation Cast lead, Israel's three-week bloody onslaught over the coastal territory which left over 1,400 Palestinians dead and over 5,000 wounded, most of them civilian, the Israeli Foreign Ministry stepped up its 'soft war.'
Is Dealing with Hamas in the Cards? - Ron Kampeas
Sources: Israel agrees to free all 450 Hamas prisoners for Shalit
IDF chief heads to Washington to stress Iran dangers to U.S. Ashkenazi scheduled to meet U.S. National Security Adviser, chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Gideon Levy / Everyone agrees: War in Gaza was a failure Hamas is stronger, the Palestinians are even more hateful toward Israel, and Israel is viewed as a pariah
The Arab-Israeli-Persian Conflict - Claude Salhani, Middle East Times
WINEP Palestinian Perspectives on a Unity Government Despite their differences, intervention by Arab states, Hamas pressure, and Fatah's own needs may be sufficient to produce an interim Palestinian "unity government" to facilitate Gaza reconstruction. Whether it can endure will depend largely on international reactions.
Jerusalem Post 'Ahmadinejad to attend Sharm summit'
Paper quotes Syrian minister saying "real, positive change" to come in Arab countries ties with Iran.
Yedioth Ahronoth Israel’s ‘tips’ for America Senior Israeli officials advise Clinton on desirable US approach vis-à-vis Iran
An Open Debate on Israel - Los Angeles Times Obama's appointee to lead the National Intelligence Council withdrew, blaming the Israel lobby. To shape U.S. policy, many voices must be heard.
INTERVIEW-Netanyahu aide sceptical of Syria talks prospects
Hamas threatens rocket militants Hamas says it will act to stop rocket attacks by militants from Gaza into Israel, which it describes as ill-timed.
U.S. Complains of Blocked Gaza Aid The U.S. complained to Israel over holdups of aid shipments to Gaza, which U.S. officials say are being trapped amid an erratic decision-making process.
Palestinians Seek Unity Government
Palestinian talks on forming a unity government have snagged over disagreements on peace talks with Israel.
Netanyahu Aide Says Obama Agrees on Iran, at Least
Palestine: A Phantom Ship in Fog, Sailing Nowhere : Amir Taheri
Turkish ambassador: Relations with Israel of 'regional importance'

Newsweek Iraq Pullout Plan Challenged By Fragile Security

Obama Plots Opening of Iran Ties The Obama administration is considering lifting a ban on diplomatic contacts with Iran and looking at ways to develop a line of communication to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
IHT Iran's nuclear deception By WILLIAM H. TOBEY
The report that Iran has produced more low-enriched uranium than previously reported should cause the U.S. and its European partners to deal cautiously with Iran.

The Middle East: Life After the Oil Bust Source: Knowledge@Wharton Read articles individually or download full report (PDF; 1.02 MB).
Guardian America's ideal Middle East ally Stephen Kinzer: Turkey is a regional peacemaker and close to key combat zones. So when Obama visits next month, will he make friends?

BULLETIN No. 234

Talking to Syria: An Important Test for Damascus - Andrew J. Tabler (New York Times-Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Syria Is the Mideast Key - Claude Salhani, Washington Times
The Road to Damascus The National Interest The notion that Iran would be “isolated” even if Syria became Israel’s best friend, a member of NATO or some Turkish- (or French-) led Middle Eastern Union, ... But a closer relationship with Bashar Assad will not weaken the mullahs in Tehran.
U.S. Seeks to Woo Syria, But Price Could Be Steep - Jay Solomon and Dada Raad (Wall Street Journal)
The Syria Temptation -- And Why Obama Must Resist It BY: Bret Stephens Commentary A peace deal between Syria and Israel is all but impossible, despite the assurances of experts who should know better.
FT Israel has choice on peace, says Assad Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, has suggested he would sign a peace settlement with Israel even without a resolution to the Palestinian conflict, but warned that any such deal would be largely symbolic
Jerusalem Post Netanyahu will focus first on PA, not Syria, senior adviser says Gold: Idea that Netanyahu would withdraw fully from Golan is unfounded mythology; Assad: No normalization till Israel-Palestinian conflict resolved
Is Bibi interested in peace with Syria?
Assad: Site Israel bombed was built over Syrian president doesn't elaborate on type of construction, questions claim of uranium at site.
Opposition in Syria is dying with dissident By David Schenker
Syria's Journey Back From the Cold BY: Ian Black The Guardian Obama's commitment to improving relations with Syria could change the way US Midde East policy is heading.
New US-Syria talks 'constructive'
A senior US envoy in Damascus says the first high-level contact with Syria in four years has been 'very constructive'.
US: Syria Can Be a Major Mideast Force
Clinton: U.S. to push for Israel-Syria reconciliation
Senior U.S. envoys hold talks in Syria The highest-level visit in more than four years signals President Obama's new approach to the Mideast. Experts predict it will lead to restoration of full diplomatic ties with Syria.
Turkey ready to renew Israel-Syria track Jerusalem Post
US Diplomatic Overture to Syria Unlikely to Narrow Gulf of DifferencesCouncil on Foreign Relations
US officials find ‘common ground’ in Syria The United States wants to see ‘forward momentum’ on peace talks between Syria and Israel and believes Syria could help Middle East stability, a US official said after high-level talks in Damascus
Assad purges Syrian security services ahead of new bid for Beirut

Lebanon: Background and U.S. Relations
The politics of assassination Mohanad Hage Ali: Will the UN's special court bring a new era of accountability for political killings in Lebanon?
Talking to Hizbullah

U.S. warns it won't recognize PA unity gov't sans Fayyad
Can Hamas Be Deterred? - Steven Klein (Ha'aretz)
Olmert to Barak: You're negating achievements of Gaza op
World takes dim view of Lieberman in FM post Choice will almost certainly encourage U.S. to keep its distance from Netanyahu's government.
ANALYSIS / Netanyahu doesn't really want Lieberman as foreign minister
Source: Indictment will force Lieberman to quit cabinet within weeks
Hamas won't sit in Fayad-led unity gov't
Group "rejects any US interference in [Palestinian] internal affairs;" Hamas, Fatah set to begin talks.
New gov't to tackle economy, security
Yedioth Ahronoth 'Iran capable of making bomb' Following US army declaration that Tehran has enough nuclear material to create atom bomb, Military Intelligence chief tells cabinet Iranians have crossed technological threshold but have yet to change their strategy
Abbas seeks reconciliation
''The faster a Fatah-Hamas gov't is formed, the faster Gaza will be rebuilt', PA president says
Setback for Pro-Israel Hawks in US by Bernd Debusmann
A Palestinian unity government is best for Israel By Zvi Bar'el
How We Built an Ultra-Right Wing Government BY: Uri Dromi Miami Herald Whenever my American friends used to tease me about the lousy political system we have in Israel, they would point to the many parties and factions we have here, and to the difficulty of forming a coalition government.
Official: Hamas Serious in Reaching Reconciliation Deal
Netanyahu's key foreign policy staff by Steven J. Rosen
Center for Security Studies (CSS)· No. 49: The Middle East Conflict after the Gaza War
CRS U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians
Rebuilding Gaza to Raze It Again by Uri Avnery
Israel facing challenge of mending ties with Muslim world
CRS Israel and Hamas: Conflict in Gaza (2008-2009)
Can Friends of Israel Trust Obama? - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

BULLETIN No. 233

Why Is Syria Getting an Olive Branch? - Claudia Rosett, Forbes
Syrian-Iranian Ties: Deterioration or Activation? Asharq Alawsat,
Iran to Syria: détente is accepted with Saudi Arabia, not moreBy Sarkis Naoum An Nahar, 2/6/2009 Naoum asserts that "knowledgeable Arab sources" said the success or failure of the Arab reconciliation initiative issued by Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abul Aziz in Kuwait will be determined in less than two months. "The periodic Arab Summit scheduled to be held in Doha will determine the destiny of this initiative and whether the Arab leaders will partake, act responsibly, restore solidarity, and resolve many crises, or if some of them will abstain from attending or choose to reduce their level of participation." Though efforts to crown this initiative with success--and of course the summit--must encompass all Arab countries, Naoum says, "the same source explained that serious efforts are made to convince Syria--after becoming the only Arab wing of the Islamic Republic of Iran--to fix the Arab home and build good Arab-Iranian relations in what secures the present and future of the Arab nation. Through its relation with Hamas and Hezbollah, in addition to its alliance with Iran, Syria has become a direct or indirect source for supporting Islamist Sunni fundamentalism and radical currents that believe in violence to bring about a desired change. "Has Syria started to translate the Arab reconciliation initiative on the ground," the columnist asks? "Syria is trying to find a way to be closer to reconciliation without having to pay a costly price. Syria does not mind if Arab sides, including the Palestinian Authority, play a role in this regard." Success, however, depends on Iran's consent or on a Syrian-Iranian agreement over all issues. "President Bashar al-Assad deployed one of his assistants to Tehran, who came back saying that Iran does not mind a détente with Saudi Arabia, but not anything more. Therefore, the Arabs might witness Saudi-Syrian reconciliation in the short run. But this will not be final as long as Iran needs to maintain its Arab and Islamic cards until the American administration decides on its position towards Tehran." Link to full text in primary source.
Senator John Kerry says U.S. eager to talk to Syria

Lebanese Rally Backs U.N. Tribunal Looking Into ’05 Killing of Ex-Leader
Search for justice
Four years on, Rafik Hariri's son seeks answers

ANALYSIS / For Livni and Netanyahu, rotating government could be the only option Netanyahu believes everything will change when he gets the president's nod to form a coalition
IHT Can this batch do peace?
By MARTIN INDYK Neither Netanyahu nor even Lieberman wants an all right-wing government in Israel.
Israel's Biggest Danger - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek Today they're 20 percent of the country's population. Demographers predict they'll be 25 percent by 2025.
Editorial Israel's Step Backward
How the Obama administration should react to the rightward swing in last week's election
U.S., EU indicate they prefer Kadima-Likud unity government
U.S. expected to pressure Israel over settlement construction
Slow Obama stance on Iran worries Israel
Turkish army furious over IDF officer's comments
Beyond Gaza - Bilal Y. SaabIsrael's Gaza operation will not achieve a strategic outcome that goes beyond a breakable ceasefire. Hamas will find a way to eventually re-arm and re-engage in the same destructive behavior against Israel. At the same time, Hamas leaders will not be able to explain to Palestinians how shelling Israeli towns with rockets and terrorizing Israeli society will better their lives and advance the cause for statehood. Negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians based on the 1967 boundaries seem almost futile today.

Is Iran Still Building the Bomb? BY LAURA ROZEN
The National The old carrots and sticks won’t break the US standoff with Iran Tony Karon : If Mr Obama sticks to the zero-enrichment demand, the chances are his diplomatic overture will be short-lived.
Muslim Brotherhood and Iran - Mehdi Khalaji, Washington Institute
WINEP Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Iran Recent examples of cooperation among Shiite and Sunni extremists raise new questions about whether Iran can improve its relationship with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. While such a breakthrough remains unlikely, the consequences for the United States of such a union would be very damaging

Changing Middle East Dynamics - Couloumbis, Ahlstrom & Weaver, RCW

İsrail Seçim Sonuçlarının Kısa Analizi: Milliyetçi Sağın Yükselişi

Tzipi Livni liderliğindeki Kadima Partisi’nin İsrail genel seçimlerinden birinci çıkması sürpriz olarak değerlendirilse de genel eğilim açısından aslında ısandıktan beklenen sonuç çıkmıştır. Mecliste, milliyetçi sağ-merkez sol dağılımındaki denge milliyetçi sağ lehine değişmiştir. Bir önceki seçimlerde 12 olan sandalye sayısını 27’ye yükselten Likud’un yanı sıra, İsrailli Arap vatandaşlara yönelik radikal tutumlarıyla bilinen aşırı milliyetçi/seküler İsrail Evimiz Partisi kazandığı 15 sandalye ile seçimlerin esas galibi olmuştur. Aşırı dinci olarak sınıflandırabilecek Şas ve Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği partileri bir önceki seçimlere göre pozisyonlarını nispeten korumuştur. Ulusal Birlik ve Yahudi Evi Partileri’nin kazandığı toplam 7 sandalye yükselen milliyetçi sağa katkı yapmıştır.

Merkez-sol partiler Kadima’nın birinciliğine rağmen güç kaybetmiştir. İşçi Partisi’nin sandalye sayısı 13’e, sosyal demokrat Meretz’inki ise 3’e düşmüştür. Sol blok kapsamında değerlendirilen Arap partileri ise 11 sandalye kazanmıştır. Yeni Meclis dağılımında milliyetçi sağın 65’e 55 gibi bir üstünlüğü söz konusudur. Ancak sağ-sol blokları kendi içinde bir bütün olarak değerlendirmemek gerekir. Örneğin sol blok içinde değerlendirilen Arap Partiler koalisyon hesapları açısından sistem dışıdır. Dolayısıyla bu dağılımı 65’e 44 olarak vermek daha doğru olabilir. Sağ blok içindeki küçük partiler, Netanyahu liderliğinde bir hükümeti Livni’nin başbakanlığına tercih edecektir. İsrail siyasetine ilişkin genel kanı, aşırı dinci partilerin milliyetçi sağ ile daha rahat çalışma imkânı bulacağı yönündedir. Bu genel olarak doğru bir tespit olsa da Lieberman’ın İsrail Evimiz Partisi bu anlamda istisna sayılabilir. Aşırı milliyetçi olarak değerlendirilen İsrail Evimiz Partisi lideri Liberman’ın seküler siyaset anlayışı aşırı dinci partilerle çelişmektedir. Şas Partisi kurucusu Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef seçimler öncesinde, “Lieberman’a oy veren şeytana oy verir” şeklinde sert bir açıklama dahi yapmıştı. İsrail Evimiz Partisi aşırı sağ kanatta olmakla beraber Filistin sorununa bakışı Likud’dan farklılık taşımaktadır. İki devletli çözümü ve Kudüs’ün belli kısımlarının gerekirse Filistinlilere verilmesini savunan partinin esas sorunu, ülke içindeki Arap kökenli İsrail vatandaşlarının yeni sınır düzenlemesiyle Filistin sınırları içine alınması, Batı Şeria’daki Yahudi yerleşimcilerin de İsrail’e dâhil edilmesidir. Koalisyon hesaplarında her bloğun kendi içindeki bu farklılıkların hesaba katılması gerekir.

Milliyetçi sağın yükselişi İsrailli seçmenlerin siyasi tercihlerinde güvenlik arayışının öne çıkması ile açıklanabilir. İran’da İsrail’e yönelik radikal söyleme sahip yönetimin nükleerleşme çabaları, Hizbullah’ın kuzeyde yarattığı tehdit, Gazze’de HAMAS’ın iktidarı ele geçirmesi ve İsrail yerleşim merkezlerine düzenlediği roket saldırıları, bu arayışın temel gerekçeleri olarak sıralanabilir. Oyların şehirlere göre dağılımına bakıldığında milliyetçi sağın yükselişinin gerekçeleri net olarak anlaşılmaktadır:

Sderot, Beerşeba, Aşkelon gibi HAMAS’ın roket saldırılarına maruz kalan yerleşim yerlerinde Likud ve İsrail Evimiz partileri ezici bir üstünlük sağlamaktadır. Kadima ve İşçi Partisi buralarda Şas Partisi’nin dahi gerisinde yer almaktadır. Hizbullah “tehdidini” en yakından hisseden ve 2006 Savaşı’nda roket saldırılarına maruz kalan Nahariye gibi şehirlerde yine güvenlik kaygıları nedeniyle Likud ve İsrail Evimiz Partileri ön planda bulunmaktadır. Bu iki partinin büyük farkla öne çıktığı diğer bir başka yer ise Batı Şeria’daki İsrailli yerleşimcilerin oy kullandıkları sandıklardır. Burada da doğal olarak güvenliğin yanı sıra ideolojik referanslar da ön plandadır. İsrail Evimiz Lideri Liberman’ın Batı Şeria’daki yerleşimcileri kapsayacak biçimde İsrail sınırlarının yeniden çizilmesi yönündeki vaadi bu bölgede etkili olmuştur. İsrail Evimiz bu bölgelerde Likud’un ardından ikinci sırada yer almaktadır. Barış ve müzakere yanlısı İşçi Partisi ise Batı Şeria’da neredeyse silinmiş durumdadır. Kadima da bu bölgede genel oy potansiyelinin çok altında yer almaktadır. Kadima Partisi nispeten güvenli bölgede yaşayan, sanayileşmiş büyük şehirlerde öne çıkmaktadır. İşçi Partisi de diğer bölgelerdeki performansına göre buralarda daha başarılı durumdadır. Başkent Tel Aviv ve onun hinderlandında yer alan Rishon Letzion, kıyı şeridindeki Hayfa gibi şehirlerde ise barış beklentileri ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Kadima büyük farkla birinci sırada yer almaktadır. İşçi Partisi, geleneksel olarak güçlü olduğu Hayfa şehrinde üstünlüğünü Kadima’ya kaptırmış olsa da genel potansiyeline nazaran güçlü bir konumda bulunmaktadır. Bu şehirlerde Likud zayıf kalırken İsrail Evimiz, Şas gibi radikal partiler hiçbir varlık gösterememektedir. Şas ve Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği partileri ise, dini tercihlerin belirleyici olduğu Kudüs’te öne çıkmaktadır.

Bu dağılım İsrail-Filistin ilişkilerindeki şiddet sarmalını ortaya koymaktadır. İsrail’in politikaları HAMAS’ın siyaset tarzına güç kazandırırken, HAMAS ve Hizbullah’ın yarattığı kaygılar İsrail toplumunda sert tedbir beklentilerini öne çıkarmaktadır. Kadima Partisi hükümeti, ancak sağ bloğa politika tavizleri ve önemli bakanlıklar vererek kurabilecektir. Bu durum İsrail-Filistin ve İsrail-Suriye barış müzakerelerinin devamı için risk oluşturabilir. Müzakere sürecinin devamını sağlayacak faktör ise Obama yönetiminin bölge sorunlarının çözümünde oynayacağı “olumlu” rol ve etkin katılım beklentisidir.

BULLETIN No. 232

Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities International Crisis Group
White House warms to thaw in ties with Syria US diplomats and officials are stepping up efforts to improve relations with Damascus even though it is on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism
Israel and Syria were ready for direct talks before Gaza war Turkish official: Olmert, Assad held indirect phone call through Erdogan, were near joint statement
Debka US-Syrian talks: Precursor for Obama's dialogue with Iran?
Syrian: President Will Meet With The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
Syrian President Bashar al Assad will meet with Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, the head of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Stratfor sources reported Feb. 12.
An election that raises Syria's appetite By Michael Young
Syria poised to transfer Iranian mobile anti-air missiles to Lebanese Hizballah
Yedioth Ahronoth Kerry to meet Assad in Syria
Senator's spokesman: Obama administration aware of plans, helping arrange Mideast trip
Assessing the Obama Mideast team [ STEVEN J. ROSEN,

Lebanon: A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the development of the Lebanese Armed Forces since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005.
When will Hizbullah avenge Mughniyeh assassination?
Retribution for Mughniyah: A Dish Served Cold?

With 99 percent of votes counted, Kadima leads Likud 28 to 27 seats Not certain that Livni will be able to muster the 61-seat coalition needed to lead the country
Livni: I'll fight on to form coalition, despite poor odds A day of coalition talks makes clear Netanyahu has considerable advantage in forging right-wing government
White House: Unclear how Israel poll will affect Mideast peace State Department spokesman says U.S. does not intend to intervene in internal Israeli politics
Abbas: Isolate Netanyahu gov't like Hamas
Major reforms are unlikely, but electoral threshold could be raised
Who will be the next defense minister?
Jerusalem PostConsensus forming on Likud-led unity gov't with Kadima
Netanyahu ready to give Livni 2 of top 4 ministries and equal cabinet representation; Kadima privately admits Bibi will be asked to form coalition.
'Right-wingers outnumber leftists 2-1' Poll shows 30% identify as right-wing, 13% center-right, 24% center, 13% center-left, 6% Left.
Analysis: The coalition calculus of saying 'no' to America By HERB KEINONBacked by a wide coalition, a prime minister can stand all kinds of pressure from abroad
Election equations
Agenda-driven media outlets claim Israel holds nearly all diplomatic cards
The Pollard Affair: Was it dual loyalty?
[ ELI KAVON, The heavy price of citizenship is that Jews lost their national identity.
The rise of Avigdor Lieberman
With Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli voters said no to the past By Danny Ayalon
The right-wing candidate represents a disillusionment with policies that have failed to achieve peace
'Livni, consider opposition' Political sources estimate President Peres will task Likud leader Netanyahu with forming next government; Kadima official says chairwoman 'should not necessarily be dragged into coalition that also features Shas, Lieberman'
Don't fear rightist coalition
The Rise of Avigdor Lieberman BY: M.J. Rosenberg Los Angeles Times Israel is becoming a right-wing country. That is the most significant thing you need to know about Tuesday's election returns.
Hamas Challenge to the PLO: Opportunities and ProspectsDays after the end of Israeli military operations in Gaza, Hamas began a campaign to replace the PLO with a new, Hamas-dominated body devoted to violence. The outcome of this political struggle will shape the future of Palestinian politics and prospect for peac
Don't expect Israel's parties to be very unlike By Barnett R. Rubin
Jeffrey Goldberg: A Stunning Israeli Election
Former CIA Official on Engagement With Hamas and Middle East Peace
Israel's Big Winner: 'Peace Skeptics' BY: Benny Avni New York Post Israeli voters yesterday threw a wrench into the plans of the world's peace processors -- President Obama included.
Israel's Age of Fragmentation BY: Carlo Strenger The Guardian The country's overwhelming anxiety led to a narrow election, stifling innovative ideas for peace and allowing the right to thrive.
Israel's Baffling Election Explained - Fania Oz-Salzberger, Forbes
A Toxic Force Rises in Israel - Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian
New Leadership, Same Problems for Israel - Emile Hokayem, The National
The Somalization of Hamas : Dr. Hamad Al-Majid
After Parliamentary Elections, Israel Faces Political Deadlock
Netanyahu offers Livni 10 portfolios, may form government without Lieberman
US opinionators fazed by rise of Israeli right?
U.S. Urged to Be Flexible on Hamas BY: NIcholas Kralev The Washington Times An influential Palestinian lawmaker visiting Washington urged the Obama administration to accept a government for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that would bridge divisions between the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
ANALYSIS: Success of rightist bloc may propel Netanyahu into PM's chair
Aluf Benn: For the sake of peace, Labor and Kadima must merge Merger would bolster two-state solution supporters, keep Israel from clashing with Obama government.
Bradley Burston: Will Livni, Netanyahu settle for rotation, sharing premiership?
Israel vote deals a setback to U.S. peace effort in Mideast In backing right-wing parties, Israelis have shown they don't want to negotiate with a weak Palestinian Authority
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Key to who will govern Israel: Avigdor Lieberman In a country divided between the centrist Kadima and hawkish Likud parties, a new kingmaker emerges from the far right.
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As Gazans Look for Way Into Egypt, Cairo Looks for Way Out of Crisis BY: Larry Luxner The Washington Diplomat - Gaza’s other neighbor — Egypt — hasn’t escaped criticism either. In addition to worldwide calls for Israel to allow humanitarian access into the strip, the majority of which is surrounded by the Jewish state, aid groups have urged Egypt to open up the seven-mile portion it controls at Gaza’s southern end — an area Israel says is also commonly used to smuggle weapons.
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Yeni Bölgesel Şartlar ve İsrail-Suriye Barış Görüşmeleri

İsrail Başbakanı Olmert’in istifasının ardından ertelenen İsrail-Suriye dolaylı barış görüşmeleri Gazze saldırıları sonrası çıkmaza girmiştir. Suriye, operasyon sürerken görüşmeleri askıya aldığını açıklamıştır. Belirsizliğin hâkim olduğu görüşmelerin geleceği konusunda etkili olabilecek faktörleri şu şekilde sıralayabiliriz: Gazze operasyonunun yarattığı yeni bölgesel güç dağılımı ve İsrail siyasetine etkileri, Obama yönetiminin getireceği yeni yaklaşım ve arabuluculuk rolü üstlenen Türkiye’nin pozisyonunda oluşan değişim.

1. Gazze Operasyonu ve Barış Görüşmeleri: Gazze operasyonu bölgesel güç dengelerini İsrail lehinde değiştirmiştir. HAMAS’ın Suriye etkisine daha açık olan askeri kanadı önemli ölçüde zayıflatılmıştır. İkinci Lübnan Savaşı ile psikolojik üstünlüğü ele geçirdiğini düşünen Suriye, şimdi karşısında güç kullanımında tereddüt etmeyen bir İsrail bulmuştur. Suriye güç dengelerinin aleyhine döndüğü bir ortamda pazarlık masasına zayıf konumda oturmak istemeyecektir. Ayrıca Suriye’nin hassas olduğu Filistin sorunu konusunda, görüşmelerin devam ettiği bir dönemde, İsrail’in saldırı düzenlemesi barış ortamını yok ederek görüşmelerin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyecektir. İsrail açısından da Filistin sorununun öne çıkması, Suriye ile görüşmelerinin rafa kaldırılmasını gündeme getirebilir.

2. İsrail İç Politikası: “İran tehdidi”nin yarattığı kaygılar, 2006 Lübnan (Hizbullah) Savaşı’nın başarısızlığı, Gazze’den tek taraflı geri çekilme sonrası HAMAS’ın düzenlediği roket saldırıları ve son Gazze operasyonu, İsrail kamuoyunun tercihlerinde ulusal güvenlik konularını birinci sıraya yükseltmiştir. Dolayısıyla İsrail seçimlerinden Kadima Partisi birinci sırada çıkmış olsa da genel eğilim İsrail sağı lehinde olmuştur. Likud’un az farkla ikinci sırada yer almasının yanında İsrail Evimiz ve Yahudi Evi gibi milliyetçi sağ partiler seçimden güçlenerek çıkmıştır. İsrail siyasetinin kendine özgü yapısı nedeniyle Knesset’te sandalye kazanan her parti koalisyon görüşmelerinde önemli roller üstlenmektedir. Kadima Partisi hükümeti kurmayı başarabilse bile sağ partilerin etkin olacağı bir koalisyon ile karşılaşabiliriz.

İsrail siyasetinde milliyetçi-sağ partilerin güçlenmesi İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumsuz etkileyebilir. Partisi ikinci sırada çıkmış olsa da halen başbakanlık koltuğunun önemli adaylarından Likud lideri Netanyahu, muhalefet döneminde İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin sürdürülmesine karşı çıkmaktaydı ve kampanya döneminde “barış ancak güçlü iken olur ve İsrail Golan Tepeleri ile çok daha güçlü” söylemiyle stratejik tepelerin Suriye’ye iadesine karşı çıktığını ifade etmişti. Netenyahu, Suriye sınırının zaten güvenli olduğunu ve barışa ihtiyaç olmadığını düşünmektedir. Golan’ın iadesinin gündeme gelmediği bir ortamda İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini tartışmak da anlamsızdır. Seçimlerden beklendiği gibi güçlenerek çıkan ve hükümet içinde bazı bakanlıkları alması muhtemel Evimiz İsrail partisi de “barış karşılığı toprak” ilkesine karşı çıkmaktadır. Dolayısıyla İsrail iç politikasının alacağı yeni şekil zaten kırılgan bir zeminde yürüyen dolaylı görüşmelerin sonlanmasına neden olabilir.

3. Obama ve Ortadoğu: İsrail’de olası milliyetçi-sağ hükümete karşılık ABD’de Obama yönetiminin işbaşında olması, beraber çalışabilirlik açısından umut verici bir tablo çizmemektedir. İsrail sağının müzakereleri ikinci plana atan, kuvvet kullanımı ve tek taraflılığı öne alan yaklaşımı Obama yönetiminin Ortadoğu politikalarıyla çelişebilir. Daha önce Kuzey İrlanda sorununun çözümünde önemli rol oynamış deneyimli müzakereci George Mitchell’in Ortadoğu Özel Temsilciliğine atanması hem diplomasi yoluyla çözüm hem de Barış Süreci’ne verilecek öncelik için önemli işaretlerdir.

Barış Süreci’ne ilişkin Obama yönetiminden genel olarak beklenen, sürecin İsrail-Suriye ayağına öncelik vermesi yönündedir. Bu yaklaşımın temelinde, karmaşık Filistin sorununu çözmeden önce İsrail çevresinde barışçıl bir ortam yaratma düşüncesi yatmaktadır. Suriye’ye Golan Tepeleri’nin iadesi sağlanırsa, Suriye’nin İran, Hizbullah ve HAMAS ile ittifakı zayıflatılabilir, İran’ın da bu örgütler üzerindeki etkisi sınırlanabilir. Obama yönetimi henüz işbaşına gelmeden Suriye’ye yönelik açılımın sinyallerini vermiştir. Obama ekibinden bir grup, görüşmeler yapmak üzere Suriye’nin başkentine gitmiştir. Bu doğrultuda en çarpıcı gelişme, yakın dönemde ABD’nin Suriye’ye büyükelçi atayabileceği yönündeki haberlerdir. Bu açılımlar gerçekleşirse İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin de ciddi olarak gündeme gelmesini bekleyebiliriz. ABD’nin aktif olarak katılımı ve desteği, görüşmelerin devamı açısından olumlu bir faktör olarak görülebilir. Görüşmelere soğuk bakması beklenen yeni İsrail yönetiminin ABD tarafından ikna edilmesi de gündeme gelebilir.

4. Türkiye’nin Rolü: Türkiye, Gazze operasyonu sonrasında bölgedeki ağırlığını daha çok Filistin tarafından yana koymuştur. Bu yaklaşımın Türkiye’ye belli avantajlar sağlaması kaçınılmazdır. Ancak diğer taraftan İsrail nezdinde Türkiye’nin tarafsızlık algısı erozyona uğramıştır. İsrail’de oluşacak yeni hükümetin Türkiye’yi tarafsız bir arabulucu olarak görme konusunda şüpheleri oluşabilir. Yine de, Filistin tarafında sağlanan güven ve itibar, İsrail açısından Türkiye’yi daha değerli bir arabulucu da yapabilir. Zaten Türk-İsrail ilişkileri pratikte şimdilik bir değişim göstermemiştir. Askeri ve ekonomik alanda işbirliği aynen sürmektedir. İki taraftan da ilişkilerin devamına ilişkin beklentileri dillendirmektedir. Dolayısıyla HAMAS ve Filistin halkı üzerinde etkin bir Türkiye, arabuluculuk açısından ön plana çıkabilir. Son olayların arabuluculuk rolünü nasıl etkileyeceği sorusunun yanıtı, eleştirilerin İsrail’de yarattığı hasarın derinliği ve Türkiye’nin bundan sonra eleştiri dozunu nasıl ayarlayacağı ile doğrudan bağlantılı olacaktır. Türkiye’nin arabulucu rolündeki değişimin yönü, İsrail-Suriye barış görüşmelerinin geleceğini olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileyebilir.